Tailgate Debate: It's all on the line between Auburn and Ole Miss
Paste BN Sports' Dan Uthman and Jesse Yomtov reprise their weekly Saturday morning conversation on the biggest games around the nation.
The first day of November features four games between ranked teams and we provide answers to some of the biggest questions heading into Week 10:
Yomtov: Good morning Dan and happy Saturday. Number of games this week with major implications, but let's start in the SEC West as per usual.
In what looks like an elimination game, No. 9 Ole Miss hosts No. 4 Auburn. The Rebels are coming off their first loss of the season, while the Tigers barely survived at home against a South Carolina with nothing to lose.
You picked Auburn in this one. After the Tigers' last trip to the Magnolia State ended in disaster earlier in the month, what makes you so confident they'll pull this one off?
Uthman: Mainly, Auburn has the more potent offense, and it is a style of offense that I believe will keep Ole Miss honest and somewhat mitigate its greatest defensive strength: the pass rush.
Ole Miss has been great rushing the passer and is No. 4 in FBS in pass efficiency defense, but it's not as strong against the run; in fact, Ole Miss and Auburn are about the same in that department. Simply put, Ole Miss's defensive strength is something Auburn doesn't really try to test. And when it does, it does so from a moving pocket.
I will acknowledge that Rebels players like Laquon Treadwell and Vince Sanders could be ripe for big games against the Tigers today, but I am convinced Auburn's style of play is going to present unique challenges for Ole Miss, too. The game will be close -- in addition to their numbers against the run, the teams share a similar turnover margin and occupy two of the top four spots in the College Football Playoff Top 25. But I'll stick with my pick of the Tigers.
Jesse, one of the hottest teams in college football is TCU. Gary Patterson and his staff have done what the best coaches are known to do: That is, to change philosophy based on the talents and strengths of personnel. TCU overhauling its offense in the offseason could not have worked out better. Yet the Horned Frogs are facing another of the game's hottest teams today, and they'll do it on the road. I am going with TCU, but how do you think things will shake out in Morgantown?
Yomtov: I'm with you on this one. There are still five games left to play, but it certainly seems Patterson and TCU are past the growing pains stage of life in the Big 12.
TCU's offenses have been capable of putting up big numbers throughout his tenure, but this year's team feels so much different with Trevone Boykin under center. Bryce Petty aside, West Virginia has had a tough time dealing with with mobile quarterbacks this season. Boykin is averaging 53.4 yards per game rushing and his ability to get outside the pocket is why I'm picking TCU here.
While the game is tantalizing in itself, the fallout could be monumental. If the Horned Frogs win, it's going to be our first taste of how the committee ranks teams week-to-week. With either No. 3 Auburn or No. 4 Ole Miss losing and No. 6 Alabama idle, could seventh-ranked TCU jump into the top five?
Considering TCU and Alabama would both be 7-1 with wins over West Virginia, I don't think we'll get a better case study this season.
Let's go to the annual de facto Pac-12 North title game between Oregon and Stanford. The Cardinal has crushed the Ducks' national championship dreams each of the last two seasons. Stanford is just 5-3 and 3-2 in conference play, but would control its own destiny in the division with a win. You picked Oregon in this one. What do the Ducks need to do to exorcise some demons and get Marcus Mariota his first win vs. Stanford?
Uthman: I think, for this week, the task falls on the defense as much as it does Mariota. And here's why: There is no question the Ducks' defense has been its bugaboo this season. I don't have the exact number, but I can't imagine there's another team in the top 10 that has given up as many plays of 20 yards or longer.
And as I wrote about this week, it's unclear exactly what kind of offensive scheme the Cardinal will run today in Eugene. Stanford coach David Shaw switched things up last week in a 24-point win against Oregon State, but Stanford's style pre-Oct. 25 has been what has led it to wins against the Ducks the past two seasons.
But I don't look at this as a problem for Oregon. I look at it as an opportunity. If the Ducks make in-game adjustments to respond to whatever Stanford is doing, I take that as a good sign for their defense going forward as the team pursues Playoff contention. The defensive play we've seen so far out of Oregon is only going to take it so far as the schedule gets tougher.
Between running back Royce Freeman, Byron Marshall in the slot, and a group of rapidly emerging receivers, Oregon has the offensive skill and speed to make things tough on Stanford. But the Ducks also have another advantage that, should they maintain it today, will propel them successfully into next week's game at Utah. Oregon is tied for fifth in FBS in turnover margin and is +11 for the season. Stanford is -8, and on a per game basis rates 115 th in FBS. That's a big difference.
OK, I would also argue that the climax of Week 10's college football slate could be one of the best of the season. What's inarguable is that it will be the latest. Jesse, there are two Pac-12 games featuring matchups of ranked teams kicking off at 10:30 or later ET tonight. So at some crazy hour Sunday morning, what is the Pac-12 South going to look like?
Yomtov: We're going to have a lot more clarity in the South come Sunday morning. Starting with the earlier game, No. 25 UCLA (3-2 conference) hosts No. 15 Arizona (3-1). The Bruins had a bizarre October, losing at home to Utah and Oregon before winning on at Cal and Colorado, the latter taking two overtimes.
UCLA has allowed 434.9 yards per game, 86th in FBS. That number startled me, but even more shocking is the the fact that there are five teams in the Pac-12 with worse marks, including Arizona. These teams have almost exactly the same strengths and weaknesses, but I think the surging Wildcats' backfield is going to be the decisive factor. Running back Terris Jones-Grigsby has shouldered the load with freshman Nick Wilson hampered the last two weeks, but Wilson is back and primed for a big game.
In Tempe, No. 14 Arizona State (4-1) and No. 18 Utah (3-1) have each won three games in a row and the winner controls its own destiny in the division. Utah running back Devontae Booker has averaged 166.3 rushing yards in conference play and the Sun Devils need to limit him in order to win. For the Sun Devils, Taylor Kelly didn't have a great game after missing three games, but played well in the fourth quarter and should have shaken off the rust enough to lead his team to a win.
To summarize, I see Arizona State at 5-1 and Arizona at 4-1 when the dust settles.
Dan, you've never steered me wrong answering this question: What are a couple of sneaky-good games you've got your eyes on today?
Uthman: From the early games, I'm intrigued to see if Duke continues unabated on its path to the ACC's Coastal Divison title against Pittsburgh (ESPNU, noon).
I also would encourage everyone to turn to ESPNU during commercials of the 7 p.m. games to get a look at Old Dominion and quarterback Taylor Heinicke against Vanderbilt. Heinicke is the FBS' active career passing yards (13,769) and total offense (15,032) leader. Plus, it would remarkable if a team in its first FBS season like the Monarchs could pull off a win on an SEC team's field.
PHOTOS: All the action from college football Week 10