Forward Progress: Assessing Week 12 in college football

MADISON, Wis. — College football's full-on love affair with the forward pass began in earnest in 2007, when the Football Bowl Subdivision set still-active records for attempts and completions per game.

FBS teams have since averaged at least 216.5 passing yards per game and 7.17 yards per attempt in each of the past seven seasons. Entering the weekend, the 128-team FBS was averaging 234.9 yards per game, which would be the third-most in college football history, and 7.21 yards per attempt, good for fourth.

Sixteen teams began play this week averaging at least 300 yards per game; only nine teams reached that mark as recently as 2010. Washington State's 4,776 yards through 10 games would have led the entire FBS in 2012.

With these statistics as evidence, it's now a passing game: Offenses lean more and more to the pass and away from the run, even as many programs have developed schemes to balance the two styles in new and inventive ways — as seen at Oregon and Auburn, for example.

Yet it was on Saturday, a cold, frigid, must-win November Saturday across much of the country, that college football re-embraced the calming and productive benefits of the running game.

No running back in the FBS had gained 300 yards in a single game through the season's first 11 weeks. Led by Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon, who set an FBS record with 408 yards against Nebraska, three backs cracked the total on Saturday.

"Just to have that type of production on offense against a great team like Nebraska, it's a dream come true," Wisconsin center Dan Voltz said. "It's the most special feeling I've ever been a part of. I'm going to let it soak in for a while. We couldn't even wish for something like this to happen."

Joining Gordon were Western Kentucky's Leon Allen, who gained 345 yards in a win against Army, and Indiana's Tevin Coleman, who ran for 307 yards in a loss at Rutgers.

In snowy Minneapolis, Ohio State used heavy doses of running back Ezekiel Elliott and quarterback J.T. Barrett to put away Minnesota and maintain its hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff. Elliott, a sophomore, and Barrett, a redshirt freshman, combined for 280 yards on 35 carries.

Trailing 21-7 in the third quarter to Texas Tech and with a backup quarterback under center, Oklahoma turned the offense over to running back Samaje Perine, who responded with 25 carries for 213 yards — the second 200-yard game of his true freshman season.

The biggest upset of the day belonged to Oregon State, which entered Saturday's matchup against one-loss Arizona State ranked 11th in the Pac-12 Conference in carries, yards per game and rushing touchdowns. With its season — and a shot at a conference-shaking win — on the line, the Beavers used heavy doses of running backs Storm Woods and Terron Ward to negate the Sun Devils' aggressiveness.

Both topped 100 yards in the 35-27 victory, the first time Oregon State had two players do so in the same game since the 2007 Emerald Bowl. Before gaining 247 yards in the win, the Beavers' season high for rushing yards in a game was 167 against Colorado on Oct. 4.

That teams facing make-or-break Saturdays rode a similar mindset to victory seems to underline a well-worn cliché: When push comes to shove, even the fanciest, most pass-centric of offenses must get back to basics once the postseason race begins in earnest.

"We were able to run the ball when we had to," Alabama coach Nick Saban said after the Crimson Tide's 25-20 win against Mississippi State. "That's a real key for us. For us to be able to improve on that and continue to be able to do that is going to be a real key for us in the future in terms of being able to be successful against some of the really good teams that we are going to have to play."

Then again, a look at the standings might suggest that teams shouldn't save a dedicated approach to the running game for November. The nation's 10 most run-happy teams, according to total carries, are a combined 62-42; the nation's bottom 10, on the other hand, are 31-64.

FOOTBALL FOUR PICTURE

Mississippi State will fall out of the top four after losing to the Crimson Tide. The loss, the Bulldogs' first on the year, is the primary contributor to the projected slide — but it's not the only reason.

Of greater importance is how the team's defeated opponents have scuffled since falling to the Bulldogs. LSU and Texas A&M each have four losses. Auburn has dropped two in a row. Essentially, the three teams behind Mississippi State's rise to the top spot have combined for 11 losses.

Four questions remain. Will Florida State fall another peg to fourth after struggling against Miami (Fla.)? It's more likely that the Seminoles remain in third. Will Alabama take the Bulldogs' place in first? The Crimson Tide, long a selection committee favorite, will have a strong case.

Will Oregon instead move up from second? Even in a bye, the Ducks have the body of work needed to take the top seed. Can TCU remain in fourth after surviving a scare at Kansas? Unfortunately, that performance might have given the committee a reason to drop TCU behind Baylor.

Here's this week's projected Playoff top four with the first two teams left out:

1. Alabama (9-1)

2. Oregon (9-1)

3. Florida State (10-0)

4. TCU (9-1)

…

5. Ohio State (9-1)

6. Baylor (8-1)

HEISMAN HOT LIST

Given his already commanding lead in the Heisman Trophy race, it was thought that Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota could cruise to the award should Dak Prescott and Mississippi State lose to Alabama.

Then Melvin Gordon stepped on the field against Nebraska.

In setting the FBS record for yards in a game, Gordon remade the dialogue surrounding Mariota's romp to the Heisman. Instead of sailing into Manhattan, Mariota may face a late charge from Wisconsin's star running back.

The Heisman remains his to lose but look for Gordon's campaign to take flight during the final weeks of the regular season. Now just 91 yards short of 2,000 for the season, Gordon is also averaging 9.08 yards per carry against FBS competition. Strangely, his only poor performance came against Western Illinois, a member of the Football Championship Subdivision; he gained just 38 yards in the 37-3 win.

It's still a two-person race, merely with one new character: Mariota and Gordon stand a full length ahead of the field.

1. Oregon QB Marcus Mariota

2. Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon

3. Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett

4. Alabama WR Amari Cooper

5. TCU QB Trevone Boykin

PLAYOFF POLL WATCH

As many as six teams in the back end of the Playoff top 25 will drop out of the poll come Tuesday evening. One potential wild card is Duke, which was 21st before Saturday's loss to Virginia Tech. It'll be close, but the Blue Devils might hang around inside the top 25.

But LSU is out after suffering its fourth loss. Likewise with Texas A&M. Minnesota, 25th heading into the weekend, might remain in that spot after losing by only a touchdown to Ohio State. Clemson and Notre Dame also will be candidates to drop out of the top 25 after losses to Georgia Tech and Northwestern, respectively.

Beyond the top four, the biggest development come Tuesday might be the appearance of a team from outside the major-conference picture. Three teams have a very good shot: Marshall, which remained undefeated after beating Rice; Colorado State, which sits at 9-1; and Boise State, which moved to 8-2 by beating San Diego State.

These teams are now out of the Playoff picture: Arizona State and Nebraska.

After the weekend, these teams' chances of reaching the Playoff are stronger than ever before: Alabama, TCU, Baylor and Ohio State.

MUSCHAMP DISMISSED AT FLORIDA

In hindsight, Will Muschamp's failed tenure at Florida will be defined by the program's inability to maintain its brief foothold among the elite of the Southeastern Conference. This stay was relatively short-lived: Florida won 11 games in 2012, Muschamp's second season, but then dropped precipitously from championship contender to conference laughingstock.

The Gators won four games last fall, the program's worst mark in more than three decades. This year's team had brief moments of brilliance — particularly in a 38-20 win against rival Georgia — but remained far too inconsistent, eventually settling at 5-5 after Saturday's overtime loss to South Carolina.

That game might serve as a microcosm of Muschamp's four seasons. The Gators held the Gamecocks to 301 yards of total offense, less than 100 yards coming on the ground. Florida's own offense threw for only 60 yards. The team played hard, as always, coming within one or two plays of clinching bowl eligibility, but lacked the mindset needed to close the door on a divisional rival.

"Upon evaluation of our football program, we are not where the program needs to be and should be," Florida athletics director Jeremy Foley said in a statement released on Sunday by the university. "I've always said that our goal at the University of Florida is to compete for championships on a regular basis."

Said Muschamp: "I was given every opportunity to get it done here and I simply didn't win enough games — that is the bottom line. I'm disappointed that I didn't get it done and it is my responsibility to get it done. I have no bitter feelings, but this is a business and I wish we would have produced better results on the field."

Muschamp will coach the remaining two games, but look for Florida's coaching search to begin in earnest before the end of the regular season. One thing we can say for sure: Foley, who hired Muschamp, will not entertain the thought of hiring a candidate without extensive experience as a head coach.

The search will center on a number of talented and successful coaches from college football's major conferences. Arizona's Rich Rodriguez seems like a no-brainer, but he's always been more comfortable doing more with less — think West Virginia and Arizona, not Michigan.

Bob Stoops has been called before when Florida has openings only to remain at Oklahoma, but this might be the right time for him to make the move after a long stint with the Sooners. If he has the energy to start from scratch, that is.

Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen was once Urban Meyer's offensive coordinator with the Gators, so he has a prior relationship with Foley. Much like Stoops, however, Mullen must be convinced to leave behind a top-25 program that bears his fingerprints.

Other names to consider include Mississippi's Hugh Freeze, Arizona State's Todd Graham, TCU's Gary Patterson, Utah's Kyle Whittingham and Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy. Outside the major-conference picture, former Alabama offensive coordinator Jim McElwain is doing a fantastic job at Colorado State.

And where will Muschamp land? Despite his failures in Gainesville, look for Muschamp to be perhaps the most desired assistant coach in this year's hiring cycle.

While he could pick his landing spot as a defensive coordinator, two programs in particular stand out: Texas A&M, which needs an elite coach to lead its defense, and Auburn, where Muschamp was once the coordinator under Tommy Tuberville.

ARKANSAS EARNS ITS FIRST SEC WIN

As coached by Bret Bielema, Arkansas football has built a foundation on its "five edges."

The first is mental and physical toughness. The second is playing fast and through the whistle. The third is playing clean, steering clear of penalties, turnovers and unforced errors. The fourth is winning in critical areas — the kicking game, the return game, on third down and in the red zone.

And the fifth, and the most important of all: "We earn everything," Bielema told Paste BN Sports.

The fifth edge was on display Saturday, when Arkansas snapped a 17-game losing streak in Southeastern Conference play with a 17-0 win against divisional rival LSU.

"A lot of times people face want to change what they're doing, and they start to outthink themselves," Bielema said. "I think we just stuck with what we do. We're going to do the same thing again against Mississippi this week."

During each Thursday speech to the Razorbacks since his arrival prior to last season, Bielema told his team they've earned the right to play in high-profile games — matchups with some of the nation's best teams, a regular occurrence for teams in the SEC West Division.

He tweaked the script during his Thursday address heading into the LSU game. You've done more than earn the right to play in this game, Bielema said; you've earned the right to win it.

The win had been in the works for months. While winless through its first five conference games, three of Arkansas' last four SEC defeats had come by a touchdown or less — including a one-point loss to Alabama and an overtime loss to Texas A&M.

Afterward, in the locker room following the game, Bielema gave his team a look at the big picture. We're not going to win the SEC championship this year, he said, "but they've started the ball going in that direction."

"In today's world, everybody wants this quick fix," said Bielema. "Everybody looks for the easy way. Sometimes that way is never going to get you where you need to be. I didn't want to skip any steps to get to where we need to be.

"We're a development program. We're not an overnight deal. We're more of a slow-roast oven than a microwave."

STARS OF THE WEEK

Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett. Another four touchdowns and 389 yards of total offense against Minnesota burnished Barrett's already impressive Heisman credentials.

Alabama S Landon Collins. Needing a defensive stop in the fourth quarter, Collins' interception of Dak Prescott allowed Alabama to knock off the nation's top-ranked team.

Louisiana-Lafayette DT Christian Ringo. His 5.5 tackles for loss in a rivalry win at Louisiana-Monroe tied for the season's single-game high in the FBS.

Marshall QB Rakeem Cato. His 297 yards and four scores carried Marshall to a win against Rice, avenging last year's defeat in the Conference USA title game.

Alabama P JK Scott. Another reason why the Tide topped Mississippi State? Scott's booming leg helped Alabama control field position.

USC WR Nelson Agholor. A 16-reception, 216-yard game helped the Trojans sneak past California.

Arizona K Casey Skowron. His 35-yard field goal with 13 minutes left in the fourth quarter brought Arizona within two points of Washington; his 47-yard kick as time expired was the winner.

Navy QB Keenan Reynolds. He put the Midshipmen's offense on his back with 277 rushing yards and seven total touchdowns in a 52-19 win against Georgia Southern.

COACHES OF THE WEEK

Texas coach Charlie Strong. Amid the injuries, attrition and difficulties inherent to any coaching change, Strong has done a marvelous job piloting Texas to six wins.

Tennessee offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian. His work with young quarterback Joshua Dobbs has the Volunteers on the verge of bowl eligibility.

Kansas interim coach Clint Bowen. He's had the Jayhawks playing hard since replacing Charlie Weis, meaning that interim tag might soon become the permanent position.

Oregon State offensive coordinator John Garrett. The Beavers chose to run straight at Arizona State's blitz-happy defense — to extremely positive results.

Georgia Tech defensive backs coach Joe Speed. The Yellow Jackets intercepted three Clemson passes, returning two for touchdowns in a 28-6 win.

UTEP coach Sean Kugler. After beating North Texas, the Miners are headed to the postseason for the second time in nine years.

Wisconsin offensive line coach T.J. Woods. Lost in the shuffle of Gordon's record-setting day was the dominant performance of the Badgers' offensive front.

Georgia defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt. The Bulldogs' defense held Auburn's potent offense to just 292 yards and forced three turnovers.

NUMBERS TO KNOW

7-2. Georgia Tech's home record against ranked teams under Paul Johnson.

9. FBS teams with fewer than two losses: Florida State (10-0), Marshall (10-0), Ohio State (9-1), TCU (9-1), Oregon (9-1), Alabama (9-1), Mississippi State (9-1), Colorado State (9-1) and Baylor (8-1).

12. Games in a row in which TCU has scored at least 30 points, the longest active streak in the country.

55-55-8. The all-time record in the rivalry between Auburn and Georgia, with the Bulldogs officially evening the score in Saturday's win.

85-1. Oklahoma's record under Bob Stoops when scoring 40 or more points after Saturday's 42-30 win against Texas Tech.

624. Melvin Gordon's rushing total in his last two games against Nebraska.