Playoff Projection: Committee still likes Mississippi State

The Football Four Playoff Projection committee has established a voting pattern of drastically downgrading teams coming off a loss this season.

In Week 6, Alabama and Oklahoma went from the top four to nary a vote after losing to Mississippi and TCU, respectively. The same thing happened to Baylor in Week 8 after it lost at West Virginia. And it happened to Auburn twice — in Week 7 and Week 11.

But this week the panel did not react the same way to Mississippi State's loss Saturday at Alabama. Perhaps it is because the Bulldogs were joining the ranks of one-loss teams, or maybe it's because the Bulldogs' first loss came at Alabama.

Either way, Mississippi State fell this week, but only to No. 4, a key position in the College Football Playoff. As panelist and WWE Hall of Famer Jim Ross said, "Spots five and six don't even get lovely parting gifts."

The difference between No. 4 and 5 in this week's committee voting was smaller than it has been all season. In fact, Mississippi State and TCU tied at 28 voting points. The Bulldogs earned the No. 4 seed by being ranked higher than TCU on eight of the 13 individual panelists' ballots.

Just as Mississippi State and TCU were as tightly bunched as mathematically possible, the top three positions also were close this week. No. 1 Florida State, No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Oregon are separated by six voting points, or 2% of the total points available. Alabama was No. 5 last week. "Alabama has earned its way back up the ladder the hard way, improving as the season goes along," said panelist Rich Brooks, former coach of Oregon, Kentucky and the St. Louis Rams. "Their defense vs. Mississippi State was very stout up front."

In addition to Ross and Brooks, the Football Four Playoff Projection panel includes former FBS coaches Tommy Bowden, Jim Grobe and Rick Neuheisel, former FBS athletic directors Bill Byrne and Jim Livengood, and Paste BN Sports college sports staff members Nicole Auerbach, Joe Fleming, Paul Myerberg, George Schroeder, Daniel Uthman and Dan Wolken.

The panel is modeled after the College Football Playoff selection committee to show what the Playoff pairings might be if they were to be set today. Each panelist enters a six-team ballot, with six points awarded for a No. 1 vote, five for a No. 2 and so on. The projection is purely a mock selection with no bearing on the Playoff selection committee's decisions.

Last week the Football Four panel had a top six of Mississippi State, Florida State, Oregon, TCU, Alabama and Baylor. The College Football Playoff selection committee had Mississippi State at No. 1, Oregon at No. 2, Florida State at No. 3, TCU at No. 4, Alabama at No. 5 and Arizona State at No. 6.

The selection committee's fourth Top 25 ranking is scheduled to be announced at 7:30 tonight.