Forward Progress: Assessing Week 13 in college football

EUGENE, Ore. — Game control. Noun; English.

First known usage: November of 2014 by College Football Playoff selection committee chairman Jeff Long.

Definition: A subjective phrase used to describe the nature of one college football team's victory against another, whether in dominating fashion or by way of a nip-and-tuck affair undecided until the final seconds (see: Florida State).

As in: Oregon flashed impressive game control in Saturday's 44-10 win against Colorado, taking a 20-0 advantage less than five minutes into the second quarter and cruising without a hiccup to its 10th win of the season.

What do you think, Oregon coach Mark Helfrich?

"I have no idea, A) what that means, or B) what you're … I don't know what that means," Helfrich said. "All those … the new stats and everything, I don't know what that means and I wasn't aware that we needed to do something differently other than playing our best for one play."

Helfrich, like the overwhelming majority of his coaching peers, remains focused on the present — just one play, in his words, and very likely the next play.

In the meantime, and perhaps unbeknownst to its head coach, Oregon has passed the selection committee's game-control test with flying colors.

The Ducks have lost just once, to Arizona on Oct. 2. They have wins against Michigan State, UCLA, Stanford and Utah. The Ducks' last six wins have come by two or more scores; the offense has scored at least 42 points in each victory. Oregon has clearly saved its best for the homestretch of the regular season.

"I want to score 1,000 points every single game," said Helfrich. "I'm a maniac that way. I want those guys to play perfectly."

So add game control to the Ducks' impressive résumé for the top seed in the College Football Playoff, alongside quality of victory, strength of schedule and the overall superiority of the Pac-12 Conference, which has challenged the Southeastern Conference's reign as the toughest league in college football.

And the Pac-12 — and, in turn, Oregon — can tout one advantage over the SEC, which has Alabama sitting atop the recent Playoff poll: Pac-12 teams play nine regular-season games and can advance to the conference championship, meaning a single team could play 10 games against league competition.

"One of the things we always thinks gives us an advantage is we were one of the first conferences to play nine games," Oregon athletics director Rob Mullens told Paste BN Sports. "And when you look at the depth of the Pac-12 this year, that matters."

Oregon's claim is strengthened further by a nonconference matchup with Michigan State. By the time the selection committee sits down to makes its final ruling on the top four, the Ducks will have played 11 games against major-conference opponents — the Spartans, the nine regular-season Pac-12 games and the conference championship.

"That probably stacks up with anybody, unless somebody just decided to play in the regular season more than 10 games against other big-five conference opponents," Mullens said.

But does seeding truly matter when it comes to the top two? The national semifinals — one held in Pasadena, Calif., the other in New Orleans — will place teams based on geography, meaning Alabama would head to the Sugar Bowl and Oregon to the Rose Bowl. In short, the Ducks are heading to Pasadena whether seeded first or second.

The difference might come in the semifinal opponent. Taking the top seed means a date with one of the following, barring a late-season shakeup: TCU, Baylor, Ohio State or Mississippi State.

Finishing second, the Ducks' current position, means a potential matchup against unbeaten Florida State, the defending national champion and winners of 27 games in a row, the longest such streak in the Football Bowl Subdivision in more than a decade.

FOOTBALL FOUR PICTURE

Oregon smothered Colorado. Alabama struggled early with Western Carolina but pulled away in a 34-point win. Mississippi State shut out Vanderbilt. Three of the current top four encountered little to no difficulty to remain at the forefront of the Playoff race.

Florida State, on the other hand, again flirted with disaster in a 20-17 win against Boston College. The Seminoles escaped with a last-second field goal after the Eagles failed to convert a makeable try at the end of an extended drive in the fourth quarter.

Despite the Seminoles' continued frustrations, don't look for any changes in the top four.

Fifth-ranked TCU, which fell out of the top four last week, was idle; the Horned Frogs return to action on Thursday night at Texas. Sixth-ranked Ohio State was sloppy through the first half and a portion of the third quarter against Indiana but ended up with a 42-27 win. Seventh-ranked Baylor looked good against Oklahoma State, but that won't be enough to vault the Bears up the rankings.

Here's this week's projected Playoff top four with the first two teams left out:

1. Alabama (10-1)

2. Oregon (10-1)

3. Florida State (11-0)

4. Mississippi State (10-1)

…

5. TCU (9-1)

6. Ohio State (10-1)

HEISMAN HOT LIST

Add two more items to Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota's growing list of achievements. The first: During the Ducks' opening drive against Colorado, he became the sixth player in FBS history with 9,000 yards passing and 2,000 yards rushing.

The second: With four touchdowns, Mariota broke former USC quarterback Matt Barkley's single-season Pac-12 record for touchdowns — he now has 42, and let's remember that Mariota has attempted just 36 passes and had 10 carries during the fourth quarter all season.

After Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon made a charge in the Heisman Trophy race with his record-setting afternoon against Nebraska on Nov. 15, Mariota has seemingly refastened his hold on the top spot.

Gordon's case may be hampered by the play of Indiana's Tevin Coleman, who tore through Ohio State's defense in a losing effort. Here's an interesting question: Should Indiana's losing record take away from Coleman's cause, or should the fact he's on the verge of a 2,000-yard season be made even more impressive by the Hoosiers' continued woefulness?

1. Oregon QB Marcus Mariota

2. Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon

3. Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett

4. Indiana RB Tevin Coleman

5. Alabama WR Amari Cooper

PLAYOFF RANKING WATCH

Nebraska, USC and Utah should fall out of the College Football Playoff Top 25, while previously eighth-ranked Mississippi stands to suffer the steepest decline of any team with January bowl aspirations.

Minnesota should leap ahead thanks to its win against the Cornhuskers, as should Louisville, which knocked off Notre Dame. Mississippi could fall all the way to 17th, behind every two-loss team from a major conference and behind Auburn, which also holds three losses but defeated the Rebels on Nov. 1.

Perhaps the most intriguing development come Tuesday night involves UCLA. The Bruins can tout the following wins: Memphis, Texas, Arizona State, Arizona and USC. Could that be enough to lift Jim Mora's group above a one-loss team?

The shakeup along the back end of the Playoff rankings should allow for a team outside the major-conference picture to squeeze into the top 25 — but it might not be unbeaten Marshall. Though still undefeated, the Thundering Herd needed every second to sneak past six-loss UAB in a 23-18 win; that won't impress the selection committee.

Two teams stand ahead of Marshall in the push for the access-bowl bid granted to the top conference champion from the Group of Five leagues. One is Boise State, which moved to 9-2 with a win against Wyoming.

Colorado State's résumé is even stronger than the Broncos' — thanks to wins against Colorado and Boston College — but the Rams have an issue: They lost to Boise, meaning they'd need the Broncos to lose to Utah State on Saturday just to reach the Mountain West Conference championship.

These teams are now out of the Playoff picture: Mississippi.

After the weekend, these teams' chances of reaching the Playoff are stronger than ever before: TCU, Ohio State and UCLA.

LONG WAIT PAYS OFF FOR DINO BABERS

As painful as it was, Dino Babers is a better coach today for the long wait he endured to become a head coach on the FBS level, he told Paste BN Sports.

It took three decades to land his own program. Babers' coaching career began at Hawaii, his alma mater, in 1984, and continued through nine FBS programs as a valued and well-respected assistant — from Arizona State in 1987 through Baylor in 2011, at the latter as one of the key pieces behind the Bears' surge from Big 12 Conference afterthought to national power.

Babers was hired at Bowling Green, replacing Wake Forest-bound Dave Clawson, after two successful years at Eastern Illinois, a member of the Football Championship Subdivision. He called those two seasons "just a warmup to everything. You've been here, you've done that. It's been a blessing."

"I really think that it made me better," Babers said. "If I got it at 32 or 33 or 34 or 40, there might be an arrogance about me that might not allow me to laugh. But the humility of getting at the age that I've gotten it has made me appreciate it so much more."

This experience has also helped the first-year coach navigate early hurdles, such as an early-season injury to starting quarterback Matt Johnson. Even without Johnson — and with injuries also decimating the Falcons at running back — Bowling Green has secured a spot in the Mid-American Conference title game.

It took Babers 30 years to get his shot; now, less than one full season into his turn at Bowling Green, Babers has become a hot commodity.

His experience is now an enormous asset: Babers has the Art Briles seal of approval, for one, along with enough time as a head coach to avoid the sort of on-the-job learning curve that intimidates larger, more polished programs — those that once failed to identify Babers as a potential coaching candidate.

But Babers can be picky — and he will be picky, should others call to gauge his interest during the coming weeks. It's not just about Bowling Green, though the program seems poised for long-term success; the best is yet to come, Babers said, once the team has another offseason to digest the staff's offensive and defensive schemes.

It's about being secure, and not just in financial terms.

"If someone threw me a contract with about 15 years on it right now, at (Bowling Green)? Hell, I might sign it," he said. "Not that I'm not ambitious. But I'm really happy with what I'm doing. It's not about going somewhere to make $2 million more and getting fired after five years. I haven't waited around that long just to make money. It's got to be more than that.

"That financial gain really has no interest to me. I really only get to do it once, and if I do it right I'm going to get the opportunity one more time. What I'm interested in is having an opportunity to win."

STRUGGLING AT TEXAS TECH

At the very least, Saturday's win against Iowa State ensured that Texas Tech would not finish in last place in the Big 12 Conference.

But one fact is impossible to ignore: Since his arrival prior to last season, Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury is 4-0 against Kansas and Iowa State and 2-11 against the rest of the Big 12.

Or, put another way, the Red Raiders are better than the league's two bottom-feeders but worse than the rest — and that's hard to swallow, particularly after Kingsbury received an extension worth more than $24 million on the eve of the regular season.

"There has never been a more exciting time within our football program than now," university athletics director Kirby Hocutt said in August. "I am very proud of the program coach Kingsbury is building, and I know our fans are as well."

The program's issues predate the extension. Tech started last season 7-0 and reached as high as ninth in the Amway Coaches Poll before the bottom dropped out; the Red Raiders would lose five of six to end the year and have suffered two losing streaks of three or more games thus far in 2014.

With one game left in the season — against Baylor, which should be favored by multiple touchdowns — Texas Tech has zero wins of consequence. Kansas has two wins. Iowa State is winless in Big 12 action. Central Arkansas is a member of the FCS. While UTEP is bowl-eligible coming out of Conference USA, the Red Raiders topped the Miners by only four points.

Saturday's win provided a brief reprieve for a program in the midst of its worst season in more than two decades.

"The second half the entire season we have done very poor," Kingsbury said on Saturday. "I don't know what it is exactly, because I haven't wanted to look at it but to hang around and just get it done, I'm just proud of that group."

COACHES ON THE HOT SEAT

SMU and Buffalo have already made coaching moves: June Jones resigned from the Mustangs in September and Jeff Quinn was dismissed in October, each replaced by a former assistant on an interim basis.

Troy coach Larry Blakeney has announced his retirement at the end of this season, while Will Muschamp's tenure at Florida will end after the regular-season finale against Florida State.

It's a foregone conclusion that this weekend's matchup with Ohio State will be Brady Hoke's last game along the sidelines at Michigan; barring a surprise, his final season will end with the Wolverines outside of bowl eligibility.

That makes five programs set to undergo a coaching search, but the list won't end there. Recent history suggests the following: At least a dozen and as many as two dozen FBS programs will make a coaching change in the days following the conclusion of the regular season.

For many coaches, a win on the final Saturday of the year won't be enough. A quick look at college football's hottest seats:

Tony Levine, Houston. Amid hopes for a January bowl, the Cougars will finish outside the top group in a weak American Athletic Conference.

Bill Blankenship, Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane's rapid decline should make this season Blankenship's last with the program.

Kevin Wilson, Indiana

. Injuries have played a role, but the Hoosiers have not progressed to expectations during Wilson's tenure.

Tim Beckman, Illinois. Beating Northwestern would land the Illini bowl eligibility, which would be a huge step forward for Beckman's job security.

Bobby Hauck, UNLV. After a bowl run last fall, the Rebels have reverted back to form.

Bo Pelini, Nebraska. The losses seem to run together for Nebraska, which is as far removed from national relevancy after Saturday's loss to Minnesota as on Pelini's first day on the job seven seasons ago.

STARS OF THE WEEK

Kansas State WR Tyler Lockett. All sorts of postseason accolades seem certain after he notched 196 receiving yards against West Virginia.

Oklahoma RB Samaje Perine. His 427 yards against Kansas set a new FBS single-game record. Oh, and Perine is just a true freshman.

Utah State LB Zach Vigil. On senior day, Vigil paced the Aggies with 19 tackles and 1.5 sacks in a dismantling of San Jose State.

FSU S Jalen Ramsey

. A sublime November continued against Boston College. Ramsey should earn All-American honors.

Arizona RB Nick Wilson. With quarterback Anu Solomon sidelined, Wilson took control of the offense with 218 rushing yards in a 42-10 win against Utah.

Oregon QB Marcus Mariota. He went 24-of-32 for 323 yards and three scores with 73 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Hello, Heisman.

Missouri DE Markus Golden. After being slowed for more than a month with a hamstring injury, Golden broke through with two sacks in a win against Tennessee.

Illinois QB Reilly O'Toole. A mid-game replacement for a struggling Wes Lunt, O'Toole helped lift Illinois to a 16-14 win against Penn State.

UCLA LB Eric Kendricks. He led the Bruins with 14 tackles and made a game-changing interception in the second quarter of Saturday's win against rival USC.

Maryland K Brad Craddock. Another three field goals in a win against Michigan should make Craddock a finalist for the Lou Groza Award.

COACHES OF THE WEEK

North Carolina co-offensive coordinator Gunter Brewer. His offense gained 592 yards in a 45-20 win against rival Duke; three players ran for at least 96 yards on the ground.

Arkansas defensive coordinator Robb Smith. The Razorbacks have pitched back-to-back shutouts against ranked competition — the first unranked team to do so since 1942.

Utah State coach Matt Wells. That he has the Aggies on the verge of a 10-win season despite a slew of injuries is nothing short of remarkable.

Minnesota coach Jerry Kill. Seeing as the Golden Gophers continue to notch big wins against big-name opposition, Kill might want to expand his repertoire of dance moves.

Appalachian State secondary coach Scot Sloan. His defensive backs held Louisiana-Lafayette quarterback Terrance Broadway to 4.8 yards per attempt in the Mountaineers' 35-16 win.

UCLA coach Jim Mora. The Bruins have now topped USC three years in a row for the first time since 1996-98 and won nine or more games three years in a row for the time ever.

Colorado State offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin. The Rams have scored at least 38 points in each of their last four games, including a season-high 58 points in Saturday's win against New Mexico.

NUMBERS TO KNOW

3. Number of players in FBS history who have rushed for 400 or more yards in a single game. Two, Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon and Oklahoma's Samaje Perine, have done so in the last two weeks.

7

. Number of days Gordon held the FBS single-game record for rushing yards.

13. Years since Nebraska last lost fewer than three games in a season. The Cornhuskers had only nine seasons with more than two losses — and none with more than three — from 1969 through 2001.

18. Number of combined punts from Wake Forest and Virginia Tech in the Demon Deacons' 6-3 overtime win.

19. Total points Stanford's defense has allowed in the third quarter through 11 games.

23. Consecutive field goals made by Maryland's Brad Craddock, the longest active streak in the FBS and the second-longest in Big Ten Conference history.

67-1. Oklahoma's record under Bob Stoops when rushing for 200 or more yards.

355. Career receptions for East Carolina wide receiver Justin Hardy, an FBS record.