Ranking Reaction: Playoff field may very well be set

There's little debate over Alabama and Oregon's place in the College Football Playoff. The only conversation — if any exists — deals with the order: Alabama's earned the top spot heading into this weekend, but the Ducks could move to the front of the line with a convincing win against Arizona to win the Pac-12 championship.

There's no controversy over Florida State's inclusion in the top four. Yes, the Seminoles have struggled at times, most recently in an uneven win against Florida. No, the Seminoles have not necessarily looked the part for much of the regular season.

Yet FSU is unbeaten, and no other team in the Football Bowl Subdivision can say the same. The only argument can be made over the Seminoles' ranking: Florida State is fourth in the most recent ranking, dropping a peg after defeating the Gators.

"There are some (committee members) that really believe Florida State's ability to overcome the deficits and rally and win and keep winning is a strong statement," College Football Playoff selection committee chairman Jeff Long said, "and there's others that looked at the way those games have progressed, the fact that they've at times struggled against three unranked opponents the last three weeks."

There's diminishing disagreement among TCU's candidacy for the top four — among committee members, at least. The Horned Frogs moved ahead of Florida State after a 48-10 win at Texas, solidifying their standing heading into the finale against Iowa State.

There's so little debate, in fact, that we can say the following: With less than a week until the committee unveils its selections, the makeup of the College Football Playoff has already been decided.

Or, put another way: Sorry, Ohio State and Baylor.

For the first time all season, each of the nation's top four teams are in firm control of their own postseason destiny. Alabama's been in this position for weeks; the Crimson Tide are a victory against Missouri away from reaching the national semifinal in New Orleans. Likewise with Oregon, which can reserve a spot at the Rose Bowl by avenging an earlier loss to Arizona.

The assumption has always been that Florida State would reach the Playoff by remaining unbeaten; that assumption has been put to the test but held strong.

"I think they are very close to being No. 3," Long said. "We spent a lot of time in debate on Florida State, and TCU for that matter. Florida State continues to be that undefeated team. But in many of the committee members' eyes, they've struggled in some games. That has had an impact."

The committee doesn't project how the standings may look in the future, Long said, but if Florida State does defeat Georgia Tech to win the ACC title, "their body of work puts them in a strong position."

TCU's move to third speaks volumes. One thing is obvious: The committee likes the Horned Frogs.

"The committee is increasingly impressed by TCU's résumé," Long said.

So impressed, in fact, that the Horned Frogs have seemingly moved another full step ahead of Baylor, which owns the head-to-head tiebreaker against TCU but lags behind in other key categories.

"I think there's many things we've taken into account when we've looked at TCU and Baylor, and we've certainly analyzed statistical data," Long said. "We've looked at the facts, the quality of the wins. As we pointed out before, TCU has five wins over teams with winning records or .500 records and above, and Baylor has three, if you include Texas at 6-6."

The placement of TCU and Florida State in this week's ranking should worry the Bears and Ohio State. Ohio State should also have concerns about how the committee will view the injury to quarterback J.T. Barrett, who will miss the rest of the season with a broken ankle.

Barrett's injury didn't affect Ohio State's ranking in this week's Top 25, but the committee "will evaluate the Buckeyes without Barrett in the Big Ten Championship Game this weekend," Long said.

"Certainly our criteria handed down by the management committee tells us to look at injuries, so we will take those injuries into account."

Baylor now sits three spots behind TCU; it's become extremely difficult to imagine a scenario in which a Baylor win against Kansas State — no matter how impressive — lifts the Bears above the Horned Frogs.

Essentially, the committee has done itself a tremendous favor heading into the final weekend of the regular season. Fourth-ranked Florida State is in a "strong position," according to Long, heading into Saturday. TCU is above Florida State — suggesting that the Horned Frogs inhabit an even stronger position than the Seminoles.

Alabama, Oregon, TCU and Florida State can adopt a straightforward mindset: Win and we're in. With time running out, Ohio State and Baylor are on the outside looking in.