New Year's Day bowls: Outback, Cotton, Citrus, Rose and Sugar
A look ahead to the New Year's Day bowl games, including the first College Football Playoff semifinals.
Outback Bowl in Tampa
No. 17 Wisconsin (10-3) vs. No. 19 Auburn (8-4)
Time/TV: Noon ET/ESPN2. Surface: Grass.
Glantz-Culver line: Auburn by 6½. Sagarin difference: Auburn by 10-04.
Bowl records: Auburn 22-14-2, Wisconsin 11-14. Series: 1-1-1 (Wisconsin won last meeting 24-10 in 2006 Capital One Bowl).
Synopsis: It's not part of the New Year's Six rotation, but this well-established Big Ten vs. SEC contest remains a sought-after destination. It got an attractive matchup of teams that were in the playoff discussion for much of the season to kick things off as the calendar turns to 2015. The face of the Badgers is TB Melvin Gordon Jr., who briefly held the single-game rushing record this season while earning a trip to New York City for the Heisman presentation. But he was shut down in his last outing by Ohio State, and the Wisconsin program will be under new management with Gary Andersen off to Oregon State. Gordon should find more real estate against the Tigers, whose run defense did not perform on par with many of their fellow conference members. Nevertheless, Badgers' QB Joel Stave must connect periodically with WR Alex Erickson to keep Auburn LBs Cassanova McKinzy and Kris Frost from run blitzing. Tigers' QB Nick Marshall and TB Cameron Artis-Payne pose a formidable ground threat in their own right. Leading WR D'haquille Williams is suspended for the game for violating team rules, but Sammie Coates re-emerged as a speed threat as he got healthier down the stretch. LB Derek Landisch and the Wisconsin defense will have to get into the backfield often to slow the Tigers.
Goodyear Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas
No. 5 Baylor (11-1) vs. No. 7 Michigan State (10-2)
Time/TV: 12:30 p.m. ET/ESPN. Surface: Artificial.
Glantz-Culver line: Baylor by 2½. Sagarin difference: Baylor by 1.17.
Bowl records: Baylor 10-10, Michigan State 10-14. Series: Michigan State 1-0 (28-10 in 1968).
Synopsis: The other Big 12 representative in the majors takes the field also looking to prove a point. But the Spartans, who avoided bad losses but lacked a defining win during the season, will be just as motivated to end the campaign with a statement. The Bears put up plenty of points — nearly 49 a game — but Michigan State is a ball-control team that might be able to keep its defense fresh. Bears' QB Bryce Petty directs the nation's most prolific attack that produces 581.3 yards a game. His weapons are many, but TB Shock Linwood and senior WR Antwan Goodley will be worthy of added attention from Spartans' big-play S Kurtis Drummond. But Baylor has been in its share of track meets, which figures to be good news for Michigan State QB Connor Cook and TB Jeremy Langford. Though the Spartans don't mind long drives, WR Tony Lippett is a breakaway threat who should be able to exploit the Bears' leaky secondary. A push up front from DE Shawn Oakman gives Baylor its best chance to keep the score manageable.
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl in Orlando
No. 14 Missouri (10-3) vs. Minnesota (8-4)
Time/TV: 1 p.m. ET/ABC. Surface: Artificial.
Glantz-Culver line: Missouri by 4½. Sagarin difference: Mizzou by 6.38.
Bowl records: Mizzou 14-16, Minnesota 5-11. Series: Mizzou 4-3-1 (won last meeting 34-12 in 1970).
Synopsis: Minnesota is the lone team not in the final Amway Coaches Poll to be playing in the two-day bowl showcase, but a win for the Golden Gophers would certainly get them into the final rankings and put a cherry on top of what has been a breakout year in coach Jerry Kill's program-building efforts. It won't be easy. The Tigers came from the less accomplished half of the SEC but nonetheless played for the league title for a second consecutive season. The strength of the Missouri defense, a devastating pass rush led by DE Shane Ray and DT Markus Golden, can be counteracted if Minnesota TB David Cobb gets rolling. Gophers QB Mitch Leidner did just enough through the air to keep the running lanes available, but this time things might work the other way with the ground game setting up opportunities for TE Maxx Williams. Missouri QB Maty Mauk and TB Russell Hansbrough know how to keep the chains moving, converting on 43.6% of their third-down chances. LB Damien Wilson and the Minnesota front want to force the Tigers into long-yardage situations, but Mizzou WR Bud Sasser can stretch the field as well.
College Football Playoff semifinals
Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif.
No. 2 Florida State (13-0) vs. No. 3 Oregon (12-1)
Time/TV: 5 p.m. ET/ESPN. Surface: Grass.
Glantz-Culver line: Oregon by 9. Sagarin difference: Oregon by 9.50.
Bowl records: Florida State 25-14-2, Oregon 12-15. Series: first meeting.
Synopsis: And at last we embark on the playoff era, with a bowl serving as a semifinal for the first time. Headlining this contest, of course, is the story line of the two most recent Heisman recipients quarterbacking their respective teams. But the biggest news coming in might be the practice injury suffered by Oregon CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. That is seemingly a huge break for Seminoles' QB Jameis Winston and his spectacular big-play target, WR Rashad Greene. But the Ducks still have hard-hitting S Erick Dargan, who will also have to be alert for FSU TE Nick O'Leary as well as recent standout TB Dalvin Cook. But Oregon QB Marcus Mariota won't mind a high-scoring affair. His ratio of 38 TD passes to two interceptions is the biggest reason he took home the hardware from New York this year. RBs Royce Freeman and Byron Marshall are only a couple of his lightning-fast perimeter threats. But Seminoles' S Jalen Ramsey always seems to be where he's needed most.
Allstate Sugar Bowl in New Orleans
No. 1 Alabama (12-1) vs. No. 4 Ohio State (12-1)
Time/TV: 8:30 p.m. ET/ESPN. Surface: Artificial.
Glantz-Culver line: Alabama by 9. Sagarin difference: Alabama by 3.98.
Bowl records: Alabama 34-23-3, Ohio State 20-24*. Series: Alabama 3-0 (won last meeting 24-17 in 1995 Citrus Bowl).
Synopsis: It might not necessarily be fair to judge the committee's work on whether the Buckeyes were a good choice to fill that much-disputed fourth playoff spot by their performance against the Crimson Tide. Alabama, after all, would have been favored no matter which challenger they faced. Regardless, Ohio State, and to a lesser extent the Big Ten as a whole, needs this game to be competitive. It might be if Buckeyes' QB Cardale Jones manages as well as he did in the conference final. The Tide defense is a cut above what he saw in that outing, thanks to talented stoppers such as LB Reggie Ragland and S Landon Collins. But there are yards to be had against Alabama if the ball gets to the edge in a timely fashion into the hands of WRs Devin Smith and Michael Thomas. The Ohio State defense has playmakers, too. The key might be CB Doran Grant as he looks to stay with the Tide's game-changing WR Amari Cooper. If he can handle his coverage with limited help, LB Joshua Perry and his teammates up front can concentrate their efforts on Alabama's deep TB rotation led by T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry. Tide QB Blake Sims, however, doesn't make many mistakes and will make Ohio State play a complete game.
*Actual bowl record, Ohio State's 31-26 win vs. Arkansas in 2011 Sugar Bowl was officially vacated.
Jeff Sagarin's power ratings show the relative strength of teams.