Five critical matchups in Week 11's biggest college football games
The College Football Playoff picture is starting to gain clarity. And two matchups today will provide more definition about which teams will be left standing when the field of four is decided on Dec. 6.
The games should have very different feels. Baylor hosts Oklahoma in a meeting of teams that ranked first and third in scoring, respectively. Alabama travels to Mississippi State in a showdown of teams ranked in the top 11 in scoring defenses.
Here is a look at the decisive factors in those two games and the rest of Saturday's biggest contests (all times Eastern):
Oklahoma secondary vs. Baylor wide receivers
TIME/TV: 8 p.m., Saturday, ABC
The Sooners have lost three of four in this series and allowed more than 40 points in each of the defeats. To change recent history, their defense must find a solution to slow the Bears, who are averaging 655 yards and 55 points per game.
Oklahoma's success will hinge on its ability to cover Corey Coleman and the rest of the speedy Baylor wideouts. The Sooners' defensive backs statistically have had a good year. However, against Tulsa, which is coached by former Bears offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery, they allowed 427 passing yards. A pass rush on freshman Jarrett Stidham would help matters, but that is not Oklahoma's strong suit without blitzing. That puts even more pressure on the coverage.
With Baker Mayfield on their side, the Sooners will score plenty of points. Somehow they need to solve an offense that has been the close thing to unstoppable college football has seen.
Mississippi State offensive line vs. Alabama defensive line
TIME/TV: 3:30 p.m., Saturday, CBS
The task for the Bulldogs is the same for every other Crimson Tide opponent. They need to create holes for the running game and also protect their quarterback when he drops back to throw. As Alabama showed against LSU and Georgia, when motivated the defense is suffocating. Mississippi State's task will be enormous if the Tide bring the same fire to Starkville.
The bar for the Bulldogs offense is not high, however. This should be a defensive standoff, so sometimes successful possessions will involve a punt. But there has to be some balance to the offense to at least move the chains and give the defense a rest. Playing from behind and having quarterback Dak Prescott throw more than 30 times is a recipe for a long day.
Oregon front seven vs. Stanford offensive line
TIME/TV: 6:30 p.m., Saturday, Fox
The biggest reason Oregon hasn't lived up to the program's high standard is defense. Oregon allows almost 490 yards per game, and the secondary is one of the worst statistically in the country. So how do they change things this week?
Everything the Cardinal does on offense starts with the running game. Stacking the box and winning battles up front can cause problems for Christian McCaffrey. Kevin Hogan doesn't play as well when Stanford can't establish the run. The gamble in crowding the line is there is added pressure on the defensive backs to hold up when Hogan drops back to pass.
The alternative of playing base defense isn't much better, however, as it likely means the Ducks get bludgeoned for 60 minutes and wear out.
Memphis defense vs. Houston defense
TIME/TV: 7 p.m., Saturday, ESPN2
There will be plenty of fireworks with two of the country's best offenses on the field. Anytime a defense gets a stop or creates a turnover will be a major win in this matchup.
The Cougars have an edge, as it has been stout against the run and leads the nation with 25 turnovers. The Tigers are entering the came off a very poor performance against the Navy option. The challenge is much different with Houston averaging more than 250 yards on the ground and passing. Some help could come from quarterback Paxton Lynch and the offense possessing ball. But the best way to hang in will be to win the turnover battle.
Luke Falk vs. Josh Rosen
TIME/TV: 10:45 p.m., Saturday, ESPN
Falk has been a breakout star. Rosen has been the best freshman quarterback in the country. The two gunslingers are going to have a memorable shootout in the Rose Bowl.
Falk likely is going to have the bigger statistical night, as no team throws the ball more than Washington State. The unknown is if he can be as efficient as Rosen, who pilots a balanced UCLA offense that can also turn to running back Paul Perkins.
Falk does have more experience, and that will be critical in avoiding turnovers and being patient even if the Cougars fall behind. Rosen has thrown the same amount of interceptions (seven) as Falk in 180 fewer attempts, which should be expected for a freshman. But it could also be a problem if the Bruins want to stay in the Pac-12 title race.