Five upsets that would shake up the national title race

The beauty of upsets in college football is they come when you least expect it.

We know they’re coming, though. They happen every year. And yet a national title contender is always taken by surprise.

It’s hard to understand, but no team can be emotionally at the same level for every game. And it's human nature for college kids to spend too much time celebrating a big win the previous week or looking ahead to a bigger game. By the time they realize they’re in a game, it is often too late.

So what games will be the surprises in 2016? Here’s a look at five matchups that could shatter big dreams.

Oklahoma at Iowa State, Nov. 3

It was a Friday night in Ames five years ago when Oklahoma State was stunned by the Cyclones and effectively knocked the Cowboys out of the BCS title game. If the Sooners navigate a difficult early stretch to the season, their trip to Iowa State on a Thursday night will be a dangerous spot. With Baylor looming the following week, this is a classic letdown situation.

The Cyclones have the makings of an explosive offense under new coach Matt Campbell. They can match Oklahoma long enough to put pressure on the Sooners in the fourth quarter and maybe pull a major surprise.

Florida State at South Florida, Sept. 24

The Seminoles have one of the tougher early schedules in the country with three ranked opponents among their first five games. Sandwiched in between the latter two — Louisville and North Carolina — comes a trip to South Florida.  Taking on a state rival on the road, especially one with a big chip on its shoulder, is always tricky. Doing it after a possible win at the Cardinals and before a visit from the Tar Heels could have FSU looking past the Bulls.

It’s the kind of game that requires focus and maturity. We’ll see how Jimbo Fisher’s team handles the challenge.

LSU at Arkansas, Nov. 12

The Tigers are getting support as the favorite in the SEC. Consecutive home games against Mississippi and Alabama in the season's second half will determine whether they are contenders. A trip to Fayetteville a week later might determine if they make the playoff.

The Razorbacks have won three of the past four in the series at home and also won last year in Baton Rouge, so they’re going to be confident. They also play a physical, smash-mouth style that could wear down a team coming off two difficult, emotional games. A win by LSU might be more difficult than getting past the Rebels and Tide in the comfort of Death Valley.

Ohio State at Penn State, Oct. 22

No team lost more talent than the Buckeyes since last season. There are going to be some ups and downs this season with so many young players in the lineup. It won’t be a problem in the biggest games of the year. They’ll be up for Oklahoma, Michigan State and Michigan.

The challenge is being prepared for a quality team hoping to end four consecutive losses to their neighbors. It sets up for Ohio State being overconfident and vulnerable, especially with the Nittany Lions on an idle week beforehand.

UCLA at Washington State, Oct. 15

The pieces are in place for the Bruins to finally exchange potential for the national success. Most of the defense returns. Josh Rosen should be one of the nation’s top quarterbacks as a sophomore. The schedule is manageable as long as they get past Texas A&M in the opener. Stanford and USC are the only two ranked opponents, and both visit the Rose Bowl.

That’s why the trip to Pullman could be the Bruins' biggest challenge. The crowd will be involved. The weather could be bad. The Cougars will probably throw more than 50 times. It’s just the kind of game that has tripped up UCLA in the past.

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