Which Group of Five team has inside track to New Year's Six bowl?
With all the attention paid to the teams atop this week’s Amway Coaches Poll it’s easy to forget about another aspect of the postseason picture: The fight for the automatic bid to a New Year’s Six bowl given to the best team in the Group of Five.
Though the eventual decision is essentially a judgment call — the College Football Playoff selection committee will make the pick, with help from analytics and the dreaded eyeball test — the past three weeks have provided some clarity to the bowl chase. Instead of poring over potentially dozens of options, the committee will convene next week with a smaller, more elite group of contenders.
We’re going to spend hours breaking down the chase for the two national semifinals. So let’s use this week’s top-10 list to look at the other guys: With one Saturday left in October, which Group of Five teams are a clear cut above the rest?
1. No. 17 UCF (6-0)
Scott Frost’s gang is outscoring opponents by 284-105, with a list of vanquished foes that includes Maryland, Florida International, Navy and Memphis. Every game has been decided by double-digits. This team is for real. The Knights rank sixth nationally in yards per game, second in yards per play and tied for first in scoring, and this underrated defense ranks second in the American in yards per game and first in scoring.
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2. Memphis (6-1)
There have been a few close calls on the road to 6-1, including a rain-soaked 37-29 win against Louisiana-Monroe and recent wins against Navy and Houston by a combined seven points. The Tigers still look the part of the Knights’ biggest threat to win the American. And with Tulane, Tulsa, SMU and East Carolina to end the year, the odds are that Memphis enters the American championship game at 11-1, needing just to beat one of UCF (which the Tigers already lost to) or USF to be the class of the Group of Five.
3. No. 14 South Florida (7-0)
The record is nice — perfect, even — and the national ranking even better. But to say that USF is the 14th-best team in the Football Bowl Subdivision is ridiculous. For starters, the Bulls haven’t played a single opponent with a pulse; the team’s best win is probably Saturday’s 34-28 victory against Tulane, which says it all. Does that matter? Not really. All the Bulls need to do is hold serve the rest of the way to make a January bowl. However, based on what USF has shown it’s hard to picture the unbeaten record continuing past a date with UCF to end the regular season and a hypothetical game against Memphis to decide the conference title.
4. Toledo (6-1)
Toledo is getting no love in the polls — as in, not even a single vote in this week’s coaches poll. That’s surprising. Maybe voters are sleeping on the Rockets? I’d say so. But they have the same problem as USF: Toledo hasn’t beaten a solid team. Still, they’ve looked great in winning six of seven, with the one loss coming against Miami (Fla.) in non-conference play.
5. Colorado State (6-2)
The Rams have rolled off four wins in a row after a predictable loss to Alabama in September. The solid stretch hasn’t come against elite competition — Hawaii, Utah State, Nevada and New Mexico — but it has reinforced the idea that CSU is one of the top teams in the Group of Five. The year comes down to a road matchup against divisional rival Boise State on Nov. 11.
6. Fresno State (5-2)
This is one of the great stories in college football. A one-win disaster last year, Fresno tapped former California head coach Jeff Tedford during the offseason and seemed more than willing to be patient while he rebuilt this proud program. Little could anyone have known how quickly the turnaround would occur. After beating San Diego State 27-3 on Saturday, the Bulldogs stand atop the West Division of the Mountain West and figure to win eight or more games during the regular season.
7. San Diego State (6-2)
Getting manhandled by Fresno was surprising, to say the least. Adding that loss to a defeat against Boise State eliminates much of the goodwill accumulated during the Aztecs’ great start, which included wins against Stanford and Arizona State. All isn’t lost, but SDSU needs to rally during the final month-plus to put itself in position to win the Mountain West and make a major bowl.
8. Boise State (5-2)
The two losses were tough to swallow: Boise coughed up a huge lead to lose at Washington State in September and were bombed by Virginia two games later. But the wins are impressive. The Broncos have topped Troy, New Mexico, San Diego State and Wyoming, meaning despite the two setbacks this team is still a very real threat to make a return trip to the New Year’s Six.
9. Navy (5-2)
Navy’s postseason stock has taken a hit with back-to-back losses to Memphis and UCF. At this point, it will take a sweep of the last four league games to just reach the American title game — so the Midshipmen probably aren’t making a January bowl. But this is still a pretty standard Ken Niumatalolo-coached team: Navy makes few mistakes, plays hard, dominates the clock and runs the ball as well as any team in the country.
10. Marshall (6-1)
The Thundering Herd’s chances of reaching a New Year’s Six bowl aren’t great, even if the team’s lone loss came against North Carolina State. But Marshall does one thing extremely well: play defense. The Herd rank 21st nationally in yards allowed per game and third among the Group of Five in yards allowed per play, and have given up just a combined 16 points in their first three league games.