Five questions the second College Football Playoff rankings will answer
Not since 1950 had Ohio State done such a number on a Big Ten opponent. The Buckeyes spent Saturday afternoon scoring 10 touchdowns, gaining 705 yards of offense and dropping 73 points on Maryland, the second-most points the school had scored in a conference game since the birth of the poll era in 1936.
Later in the day, in Tuscaloosa: LSU snapped an eight-game losing streak against Alabama with a 46-41 win that showed how the Ed Oregeron-led Tigers have unearthed not just a hugely improved offense but perhaps the best offense in the sport that makes them a threat to win a national title.
There’s no bigger debate around this week’s College Football Playoff rankings, set to be released on Tuesday evening, than the dueling cases for No. 1. Ohio State held the top post in the debut rankings but may be replaced by LSU, should the selection committee put heavy stock in the Tigers’ road win. Yet the Buckeyes made their own case, albeit against a vastly inferior opponent.
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It's not the only question the committee must address as the regular season streams through November. Consider, for example:
Who should be No. 1?
It will be LSU, which has the stronger list of wins and, after Saturday, a marquee moment to offset Ohio State's week-by-week dominance. The Buckeyes' smallest margin of victory through nine games is 24 points, against Michigan State on Oct. 6. In all, the Buckeyes may have three wins against teams in this week's playoff rankings: Cincinnati, Wisconsin and Indiana, should the 7-2 Hoosiers sneak into the back end of the Top 25. (Indiana is No. 25 in this week's Amway Coaches Poll.)
But LSU will have four wins against the Top 25, given that Texas should return to the rankings after hitting a late field goal to sneak past Kansas State. And in beating Alabama, the Tigers answered one enormous question — whether the program could solve the riddle presented by Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide — while showcasing the sort of offensive brilliance that will speak to members of the committee.
So look for a swap: LSU up one spot from last week to No. 1, Ohio State down one to No. 2. Not that it matters. Should they win out, these teams are destined to become the higher-ranked seed in the national semifinals, with LSU close to home in the Peach Bowl and the Buckeyes in the Fiesta Bowl.
Where will Alabama land?
Alabama would've fallen out of the top four had Penn State found a way to beat Minnesota; that would've bumped the Nittany Lions to No. 3 while Clemson climbed to No. 4, leaving Alabama next at No. 5. The Golden Gophers' win creates a scenario where Alabama will drop only two spots to No. 4, however, with five or six contenders in the mix for No. 5. (If jam-packed and confusing now, the next few weeks will inevitably trim the list of options.)
A better question may ask whether Alabama deserves to fall below No. 4. On one hand, there's no overlooking the team's lack of marquee wins. Alabama has just one win against a Power Five team with a winning record, Texas A&M. The once-impenetrable Alabama defense has allowed at least 28 points in three of its past five SEC games. The eyeball test matters, and on defense the Tide draw a failing grade.
There's still this conundrum for the committee: If LSU is the No. 1 team in the country, what does that say about an opponent that lost to the Tigers by five points and is otherwise unbeaten? That's the case for Alabama falling only to No. 4, though the coming weeks will give those teams just behind the Tide ammunition and an argument for leapfrogging ahead into the top four.
Will Minnesota soar up the rankings?
Yeah, the Golden Gophers are going to make a huge leap. Looking back, the team's flimsy schedule justified, to a degree, being No. 17 in the debut rankings. It may look bad in hindsight, but the committee had an argument for slightly penalizing a team that had yet to beat any opponent of consequence. That changed with Saturday's 31-26 win against the previously unbeaten Nittany Lions.
Minnesota will easily move ahead of several two-loss teams ranked higher in last week's release — Notre Dame, Michigan, Wisconsin, Auburn and Florida — and into the top 10, where the Gophers will come into comparison with undefeated Baylor and one-loss Oklahoma, Georgia, Utah and Oregon. Given how the committee valued Penn State a week ago, there's reason to believe the Gophers will be in the mix for No. 5, though Georgia would be the obvious choice to move up after being sixth in the debut rankings.
Will there be a second ACC team?
Nope. The league's best hope of giving Clemson a marquee in-conference win was shut down after Wake Forest's 36-17 loss at Virginia Tech. This week's Coaches Poll, for example, has Clemson at No. 3 but no other ACC team in the Top 25 — the Demon Deacons, Hokies and Virginia are receiving votes but would need to win out to earn a national ranking.
It's not a huge deal for Clemson, which is a lock for the top four with another perfect regular season, and it's not like the Tigers haven't looked the part of a team capable of defending its national championship. Clemson has scored at least 45 points in its last five games and is running at high gear heading into its final three games before the postseason.
How many Group of Five teams in the Top 25?
Four are a lock: Cincinnati, Memphis, Boise State and Navy. No. 25 a week ago, SMU is a candidate to fall out of the rankings after Saturday's 59-51 win against East Carolina, especially with Texas set to rejoin the Top 25. However, the Mustangs could stick and Appalachian State could bounce back into the rankings after beating South Carolina to give the Group of Five six teams in this week's list.
Whether it's four, five or six representatives hinges on how the committee approaches Kansas State, Iowa, Wake Forest and Oklahoma State. The Demon Deacons will likely go from No. 19 to out of the rankings. Kansas State was No. 16 before losing to the Longhorns, and the narrow, final-seconds loss shouldn't be too heavily penalized. Iowa hung tight with Wisconsin and has a case to fall only a few spots from No. 18. And while Oklahoma State didn't play on Saturday, the Cowboys' best wins look slightly weaker after the Wildcats' loss and Iowa State's close setback at Oklahoma.