Winners and losers in fourth College Football Playoff rankings include Ohio State and Utah
The fourth College Football Playoff rankings saved its big twist for the end: Ohio State leaped ahead of LSU to claim No. 1 in the latest rankings, thanks in large part to Saturday's 28-17 win against No. 10 Penn State.
That's the most notable shift in terms of determining the final four teams, even if both the Buckeyes and Tigers have been locked into the national semifinals with perfect ends to the regular season — Ohio State gets Michigan and the winner of the Big Ten West, while LSU faces Texas A&M and Georgia.
But it wasn't the only change near the top of the rankings. No. 14 Oregon's loss to Arizona State allowed Utah to climb to No. 6, meaning the Utes are in position to claim a spot in the semifinals should LSU beat Georgia to win the SEC. Yet the Utes are hurt by Oregon's loss, since it erases the possibility of a pair of one-loss teams meeting to decide the Pac-12.
It was the same group behind Ohio State and LSU. No. 3 Clemson continues to roll, with the goal of closing strong against South Carolina and one of Virginia or No. 24 Virginia Tech in the ACC championship game. Georgia is No. 4, for now, with the possibility of securing a top-four finish against the Tigers in two weeks.
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Then comes No. 5 Alabama, which didn't skip a beat offensively in its first game with Mac Jones replacing an injured Tua Tagovailoa — though the Crimson Tide played Western Carolina, making it hard to extrapolate how this offense will fare in this weekend's Iron Bowl against No. 15 Auburn's stout defense.
The next two weeks will dictate which teams reach the national semifinals. Here are the winners and losers from the fourth playoff rankings, starting with the Buckeyes:
Winners
Ohio State
It's hard to argue against Ohio State passing LSU when you consider the Buckeyes' win against Penn State in conjunction with the Tigers' continued issues on defense. In all, Ohio State has been in the ballpark with LSU's offense — LSU ranks first nationally in yards gained per play and OSU ranks eighth — but far, far better defensively, with a unit that ranks at or near the top of the nation in most major categories. The Buckeyes earned the nod.
And it matters. Oh, it matters. Why? Because of who's looming at No. 3. The idea of meeting the defending national champions in the semifinals is unappealing. (The idea of meeting Clemson, period, is similarly unappetizing.) And by landing at No. 1, the Buckeyes would pair off instead with Utah, Oklahoma or Baylor, barring further chaos. That matchup seems ... friendlier.
Big 12
The Big 12 is firmly back in the race for the top four. Oklahoma is a step behind Utah with a better schedule ahead. The Sooners meet No. 21 Oklahoma State this weekend before a rematch with No. 9 Baylor a week later. Meanwhile, Utah takes on five-win Colorado before taking on an Oregon team fresh off its second loss. The strength of schedule and potential to add meaningful wins favors the Sooners. All things being equal, the Sooners seem more likely to end the regular season at No. 4.
Baylor made a huge climb to No. 9, up five spots from a week ago. Why seems confusing: Baylor's a very good team, one a field goal or so away from beating Oklahoma and being unbeaten, but Texas is not. So giving the Bears a boost for defeating the stumbling Longhorns seems like an overdue sort of make-up call by the committee. Either way, the Bears join Oklahoma in giving the Big 12 two very serious contenders to sneak into the semifinals.
Losers
Oregon
To no surprise, the Ducks are out of the mix. That loss to Arizona State — a situation where Oregon played in low gear until the fourth quarter and ran out of time to pull off the comeback — dropped the Ducks to No. 14, an eight-spot plummet from a week ago. While losing to Auburn in the opener came to be seen as an asset, the team's second loss makes this fact hard to ignore: Oregon has just one win against a Power Five team with more than six wins while taking advantage of major downturns from divisional rivals Washington, Washington State and Stanford.
The good news? That the Pac-12 has been so average outside its two front-runners means Oregon has a shot to land in the Rose Bowl. Actually, make that two shots: the first by beating Utah to win the Pac-12 and the second by Utah winning out and reaching the playoff, which would leave the Ducks as the next-best team in the conference per the rankings. But the road for Utah isn't as clear as it seemed last week.
Utah
In one major sense, the Utes are a winner in the latest rankings after climbing to No. 6 and replacing Oregon as the Pac-12 team most likely to benefit from attrition in the SEC. While Oklahoma rose two spots this week, Utah is currently ahead in determining with Power Five champion rounds out the top four. (While Utah has yet to leapfrog past No. 5 Alabama, that’s won’t last should the Utes close with two wins.)
The issue for Utah — and why the Utes can't feel very comfortable despite this week's bump — is the sudden boost for the two leaders from the Big 12. Instead of having a three-spot lead on Oklahoma, as Oregon did before Saturday's loss, the Utes are now just one spot ahead of the Sooners with two games to go. Worse yet, the Ducks' second loss removes much of the luster from that potential championship game while the Big 12 championship is set to pit teams ranked No. 7 and No. 9 in the rankings.