Opinion: Like it or not, team history will play major role in College Football Playoff picks this season
We finally have a plan for the college football season. Ten-game seasons for the Power Five conferences (the ACC might play 11). The Big 12 was the last holdout.
Now that we know, it’s time to take the next step. What about the postseason? The College Football Playoff?
For four months, there has been much speculation about the playoff, which was mostly idle time. We didn’t know if players would even see campus come autumn; why worry about the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl?
But college football has marched toward a starting line, and if it manages to limp to the finish line with a semblance of a season, count on the selection committee to convene in Grapevine, Texas — or via Zoom, which is how it might meet forever going forward — and pick four teams for a tournament that will determine a champion.
And no, it’s not just because of money, though that’s a big part of it. If we have a season, we’ll have a playoff, because the sports world demands it. Look at it this way. There is no real money in high school football, but the Friday night gridirons figure to be lit come September. We’ve got to have our football, and we’ve got to have our champions.
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But man, what a quandary the College Football Playoff committee will have. Five conferences, four slots and limited interconference play.
No Alabama-Southern California, no LSU-Texas, no Oklahoma-Tennessee, no Ohio State-Oregon, no Michigan-Washington, no Penn State-Virginia Tech, no Florida State-Florida, no anything of an non-conference showdown.
Do you understand how vital such matchups are to shaping the hierarchy of a season?
Without them, there is no basis for comparison. In the old days of baseball, the World Series matched two teams from different leagues, with no crossover play. What if baseball in those days didn’t match the pennant winners, but had to pick between the two pennant winners?
Dodgers or Yankees? Orioles or Cardinals? Tigers or Pirates? With no common opponents. How would you have chosen? Raw record? Roster makeup? Statistical analysis?
Seems silly in baseball. But it’s silly in football, too. Judging Clemson and Oregon in a season in which the Tigers played Auburn and the Ducks played Ohio State is comparing apples and oranges. Judging Clemson and Oregon in a season without non-conference play is comparing apples and beef jerky.
If the Oklahoma go 8-1 through the Big 12, is that more impressive than a Pac-12 champion that goes 8-2 in the league? What if the Big 12 is down, with virtually no team that could stand up to the Sooners? What if the Pac-12 is up, with four or five title contenders?
That kind of question is answered every year by non-conference play. We don’t have as many intersectional showdowns as we need, but we have enough to know some relative strength of most teams.
Now, there are no mile markers to tell anyone where a team might be, in relation to other conferences.
The best solution would be to expand the playoff for this season, but that should be an impossible sell in this pandemic year. Hard to make the case for more than doubling the playoff games in a season when teams are doing their best to hunker down.
So what will the committee do? It will rely on two staples, but only one of which it admits to.
First, the eye test, which the committee proudly endorses. Who looks best on film? Who has the best defensive tackles? Whose fast receivers are 6-foot-3 instead of 5-foot-9? It’s a miserable way to pick anything; it’s figure skating or diving or one of the judging sports that always leave you a little squeamish after the results.
Most football people defend the eye test, and so does CFP executive director Bill Hancock, saying committee members still can discern quality, even in a fractured season.
“They can tell," Hancock told CBS Sports recently. “They can discern. 'Hey, they're good.' That's why we have a committee. If this were simply a data-driven system, I'd have my doubts. If there wasn't a human committee, I wouldn't be as confident as I am."
Second, history. Which teams and which leagues have done well in the past? There’s a clear pecking order. Alabama, Clemson, all other SEC teams, Ohio State, Oklahoma, all other Big Ten teams, any Pac-12 team, all other Big 12 teams, all other ACC teams. That’s about right, don’t you think?
With nothing but non-conference play, the committee absolutely will fall back on history. It’s like when qualifying gets rained out at a NASCAR race. They line up the cars based on season points.
That’s what the committee will do. Line up teams based on the past.
I won’t criticize them for it. What else are the decision-makers to do? This is a sport that needs a lot more quality non-conference games. Instead, it’s getting none.