College football: Who will be this season's Coastal Carolina?
Coastal Carolina's success as a member of the Football Championship Subdivision did not immediately carry over to the Chanticleers' promotion in 2018 to the Football Bowl Subdivision. As new members of the FBS, the program notched three straight losing records and just six combined wins in Sun Belt play heading into the 2020 season.
But those within the Sun Belt knew what was cooking: CCU was picked to finish first in the East division in last summer's preseason poll and placed 11 players on the preseason all-conference team, most in the league.
The Chanticleers delivered on that projection and then some, posting an unbeaten regular season and climbing as high as No. 12 in the Paste BN Sports AFCA Coaches Poll and the College Football Playoff rankings.
After a dream season, CCU won't take college football by surprise in 2021. Which Group of Five teams lurking off the radar are ready to mimic the Chanticleers' dream season and nab a spot in the New Year's Six bowl lineup?
Nevada
The Wolf Pack have one of the nation's top quarterbacks in Carson Strong, who hit on 70.4% of his throws in 2020 and heads into his third season as a legitimate contender for the first round of next year's NFL draft. Strong is surrounded by the most well-rounded roster in the Mountain West, with outstanding talent at wide receiver and one of the most experienced offensive lines in the conference. Nevada does take on California, Kansas State and Boise State on the road, however.
Southern Methodist
SMU has yet to make a decision at quarterback — Oklahoma transfer Tanner Mordecai is the heavy favorite to replace Shane Buechele — but there are zero concerns about the state of this offense given coach Sonny Dykes' track record; the Mustangs have averaged 40.4 points per game since the start of the 2019 season. The question marks can be found on defense, where first-year coordinator Jim Leavitt will shift the Mustangs into a 3-4 base scheme. SMU has the coaching and talent to win the American but must handle a schedule defined by trips to TCU, Louisiana Tech, Navy, Houston, Memphis and Cincinnati.
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Air Force
The Falcons bring back nine starters and several key reserves from a defense that led the Mountain West in scoring and finished second in yards per game. This unit may be good enough to carry an offense that breaks in an entirely new unit up front, a preseason concern despite the program's longstanding tradition of success in the running game. The schedule has no Power Five opponents but does include trips to Boise State and Nevada, the two games that will decide the team's postseason destination. Beating this sort of top-level competition has been a recent issue for the Falcons, who have lost 19 games across the past four seasons but just two against teams that finished with a losing record. (AFA's last five losses dating to the start of 2019 are against opponents that finished a combined 44-10.)
Wyoming
Wyoming will need a healthy season from sophomore quarterback Sean Chambers or noticeable development from projected backup Levi Williams to take advantage of a wealth of returning experience and win nine or more games for the first time under coach Craig Bohl. Otherwise, the Cowboys are loaded on both lines — the offensive front is unquestionably the best in the Mountain West — and far deeper overall on defense, painting the picture of a team built to take the next step and win the conference championship. But it'll take a better performance in close games: Wyoming has dropped its last seven games decided by single digits.
Kent State
The Golden Flashes have been transformed under fourth-year coach Sean Lewis, 35, who has taken Kent State from 2-10 in his debut to the preseason favorite to win the MAC. This growth has been propelled by an outstanding offense: KSU led the nation in scoring and yards per game during the pandemic year. To reach the top of the Group of Five, a recently underperforming defense must be ready to go from the start — the Flashes get Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland on the road in September.
Texas-San Antonio
The Roadrunners return nearly every key contributor from 2020 and have even more depth after adding several Power Five transfers as the program looks to build on a very strong start under second-year coach Jeff Traylor. Keep another factor in mind: UTSA won seven games last season despite not having a real offseason under the then-new staff, so having a full winter, spring and summer to nail down the details of the team's offensive and defensive schemes could yield another breakthrough season. The Roadrunners are Alabama-Birmingham's biggest threat in Conference USA.
Follow colleges reporter Paul Myerberg on Twitter @PaulMyerberg