Unbeaten to miss playoff? Georgia-Tennessee better off losing? The biggest Week 9 overreactions
As if the action on the field doesn’t give fans enough to holler about, Tuesday night’s unveiling of the first College Football Playoff committee rankings are sure to provide a whole lot more message board material.
Ultimately, of course, that first set of rankings will be largely meaningless. They’ll show us potential paths and possible scenarios, but nothing more until the only meaningful set comes out in December.
We therefore present this edition of Overreaction Monday as something of a preview of howls to come, with the most recent results as backdrop.
Here then are the top five overreactions for college football Week 9:
An unbeaten team will get left out of the playoff
This is the true nightmare scenario for a couple of conference commissioners. Here’s how it might unfold.
Only six unbeaten teams remain, and by the end of the season there can be no more than four. Let’s further stipulate that we’re not talking about an undefeated SEC or Big Ten team, since the winners of Georgia-Tennessee and Ohio State-Michigan will absolutely be in the playoff should they finish 13-0.
This means we’re talking about Clemson and TCU. Is it possible that either or both could be left out of the top four even if they run the table?
Let’s take Clemson’s case first. The Tigers were off this past weekend but weren’t helped by the results turned in by some of their fellow ACC members, not to mention the loss by in-state rival South Carolina whom they’ll face in the regular-season finale. As for the Horned Frogs, they handled their business at West Virginia, but their non-conference achievements are unexceptional and the remainder of their Big 12 slate affords them no opportunities for top-tier wins except possibly on championship weekend. Would the résumé of an unbeaten ACC or Big 12 champion automatically be viewed as superior to, say, a one-loss SEC or Big Ten runner-up, or a 12-1 Oregon team with only that season-opening loss to Georgia marring a clean Pac-12 record?
Historically, these potential controversies have sorted themselves out thus far in the four-team playoff era. But the next month could prove to be very interesting indeed.
Georgia-Tennessee will be the biggest game in the history of everything
It’s important, make no mistake. The winner essentially clinches the SEC East and a spot in the league title game, and even a loss there might not necessarily be a playoff eliminator, depending on how matters in other power conferences shake out (see above). But unlike years of the national champion decided by the polls or Bowl Championship Series, this game won't have the same high stakes.
The loser of next week’s game will still be in the picture as well, as either the Bulldogs or the Volunteers will be heavy favorites to win the rest of their games to finish 11-1. This brings us to the opposite overreaction.
RE-RANK: Tennessee improves to No. 2 behind Georgia in NCAA 1-131
DAWGS ON TOP: Georgia still No. 1; USC, Ole Miss join top 10 of poll
HIGHS AND LOWS: Winners and losers from Week 9 in college football
MISERY INDEX: Auburn shows again how far the program has fallen
Georgia or Tennessee would be better off losing next week
True, the winner will have an extra game to play, and thus will be put in jeopardy of taking a loss at the end of the season. That opponent would most likely be Alabama but could possibly be LSU or Ole Miss.
But should the West champion end up beating an undefeated Georgia or Tennessee, then next Saturday’s winner would still finish 12-1 and own a head-to-head triumph over the other and thus have a stronger case. Assuming the West champion also has just one loss, it’s unlikely there would be room for three SEC teams among the top four.
The best case scenario for the Bulldogs and Vols, of course, would be for the winner to go on to beat the West champion, which would then keep the loser at the top of the at-large pool. But neither will want to leave matters to chance in that way. No, better to try and win next week and go from there.
Let’s just get to Ohio State-Michigan already
With Penn State now in the rearview for both the Wolverines and Buckeyes, their head-to-head clash in Columbus on Nov. 26 will be for all the Big Ten marbles just like we all thought, right? But hold on. There’s one teensy fly in the ointment that might be an agent of chaos.
A week before hosting Michigan, the Buckeyes must travel to Maryland, a potential trap game especially if Terrapins QB Taulia Tagovailoa is healthy by that point. But it’s the Wolverines’ opponent that same week that could pose a more dangerous obstacle.
That would be Illinois, which entered the season with zero hype but is suddenly ranked 13th in the coaches poll. The Fighting Illini have a road loss to Indiana that hasn’t aged well, but they can all but lock up the West Division in two weeks if they can get past Purdue at home. Then there’s that scheduled trip to Ann Arbor, and a possible rematch with the Wolverines or a shot at the Buckeyes in the conference finale.
Could Bret Bielema’s boys pull it off? It’s admittedly a long shot, but neither is it impossible.
Oregon is in the Pac-12 driver’s seat
The Ducks do have a number of factors in their favor as the season enters its final month. They’re the last unbeaten team in Pac-12 play, of course, and Utah has to come to Eugene on Nov. 19 while the L.A. schools still have to play each other that same day.
But Oregon might actually have the toughest closing stretch among the foursome still in contention. Next week’s trip to Colorado shouldn’t be an issue, but the Ducks host Washington a week before the Utes come to town, then of course they finish the regular campaign at Oregon State in the rivalry game we’re not supposed to call the Civil War anymore.*
As it happens, Oregon State and Washington will square off this week in a Friday night #Pac12AfterDark special. Ducks’ fans might want to tune into that one for a little scouting.
*But just try and stop us.