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Tennessee poised to be biggest winner? Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings release


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Beating Missouri 66-24 won't boost Tennessee in this week's College Football Playoff rankings, which will remain the same through the top five: Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU and the Volunteers.

But Tennessee might be the biggest winner in the new rankings after having one major roadblock to the semifinals moved aside by Washington's upset of rival Oregon.

With the Ducks now holding two losses and out of the playoff picture, the Volunteers are poised to step into the top four following the game between the Buckeyes and Wolverines later this month. Once in the top four, could Tennessee be dislodged?

As in the new Paste BN Sports AFCA Coaches Poll, the controversy-free top five precedes the question of which team lands at No. 6 after three playoff contenders — Oregon, Mississippi and UCLA — were knocked out of the race.

Based on last week's rankings, the debate will center on the comparison between two-loss LSU and new Pac-12 frontrunner Southern California. Here's how the top 10 should look with three Saturdays left before postseason play: 

1. Georgia (10-0)

Georgia has made at least 30 pass attempts in nine of 10 games, with a 27-13 win against Tennessee the exception. Last year's national champions hit that mark six times. Overall, the Bulldogs threw 30 or more passes 27 times in 81 games under Kirby Smart entering this season.

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2. Ohio State (10-0)

Saturday's 56-14 win against Indiana will keep Ohio State in front of Michigan for another week. The Buckeyes remain the only team in the country to win every game by a double-digit margin.

3. Michigan (10-0)

What's better: Michigan's running game or run defense? The Wolverines put up another 264 yards on the ground against Nebraska and are averaging 251.4 yards per game, good for fourth nationally. Across the ball, Michigan leads the Bowl Subdivision in allowing just 72.7 yards per game on a measly 2.6 yards a pop.

4. TCU (10-0)

Before the weekend's win against Texas, the Horned Frogs hadn't held a Big 12 foe to 10 or fewer points since topping Baylor 16-9 on Nov. 17, 2018. The Longhorns' 3.26 yards per play was TCU's best overall performance since limiting Kansas to just 0.4 yards per snap in a 43-0 win on Oct. 21, 2017. 

5. Tennessee (9-1)

That Tennessee ranks 124th in the country in passing yards allowed per game can be attributed to the fact that opponents have bombarded this pass defense with a high volume of throws. Across 407 attempts, the second-most of any team in the FBS, the Volunteers have allowed 14 touchdowns and made nine interceptions, both good for 48th nationally, and given up 7.1 yards per pass, tied for 64th.

6. LSU (8-2)

Escaping Arkansas' upset bid will keep LSU in the playoff mix with Alabama-Birmingham, Texas A&M and Georgia to end the regular season. The Tigers are in the playoff as a two-loss SEC champion. What about three losses? That would be a very hard sell for the committee. But the Razorbacks were the toughest test left in November; the Tigers shouldn't struggle putting away the Blazers and Aggies.

7. Alabama (8-2)

Bouncing back to beat Mississippi should lead to a two-spot bump for Alabama, though that same win handed the SEC West to LSU and essentially ended the Crimson Tide's playoff chances. A few nice wins and very high-quality losses to Tennessee and LSU will make Alabama the fourth member of the SEC to come in ahead of the one-loss teams at the top of the Pac-12 and ACC.

8. Southern California (9-1)

While USC could very well land at No. 7 after last Friday's win against Colorado, getting leapfrogged by the Crimson Tide would be only a temporary concern. Alabama has no reasonable avenues into the playoff with two losses while the Trojans could end the regular season with two more wins than the Tide and a Power Five conference championship. If they run the table, USC will absolutely move ahead.

9. Clemson (9-1)     

Clemson will inch up in the rankings and so will North Carolina, the Tigers' opponent in the upcoming ACC championship game. That's really good news for the Tigers, who need upsets in the SEC, a two-loss Pac-12 champion and the Tar Heels to remain with just one loss to make the best case to the committee.

10. Oregon (8-2)

Utah could also land here, which would make the top of the playoff rankings a nearly perfect match for the Coaches Poll — the same 10 teams, only with LSU and USC flopped by the selection committee. But the Ducks were seven spots ahead in last week's rankings, lost a close game to another ranked team and own a dominant win against UCLA, the team responsible for the Utes' lone Pac-12 loss. That should give Oregon the edge.