Trouble ahead for USC and Mississippi? Bold predictions for college football's Week 12
The college football season is winding down with just three weekends left. The games are bigger and the pressure is ramped up.
The urgency of the College Football Playoff and conference races can cause teams to raise their level of play or stumble close to the finish line. This leads to unexpected results – often in places where it is least anticipated.
That's why we're here to make sense of things. The Paste BN Sports college football staff — Scooby Axson, Jace Evans, Paul Myerberg, Erick Smith, Eddie Timanus and Dan Wolken — weigh in with bold predictions for Week 12 of the college football season:
Season gets rougher for Oklahoma and Miami (Fla.)
For two storied programs with proud traditions and first-year head coaches, to say times have been tough in 2022 is an understatement. Miami and Oklahoma were expected to be at least a factor in competing for conference titles in leagues that were there for the taking. But both programs currently sit at 5-5 with a bunch of ugly losses amid defenses that haven’t stopped anyone all season.
With a chance to clinch bowl eligibility with victories, the Sooners and the Hurricanes will have to put their late December lower-tier bowl plans on hold, as Oklahoma State and Clemson will continue to extend that misery for at least another week. -- Scooby Axson
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USC sees playoff plans upset by UCLA
Southern California enters Saturday’s showdown with rival UCLA at 9-1 and No. 6 in the Paste BN Sports AFCA Coaches Poll. But the record and ranking have papered over USC’s play in recent weeks. After suffering a 43-42 setback to Utah, the Trojans scored largely unsatisfying wins over the dregs of the Pac-12 in Arizona (45-37), Cal (41-35) and Colorado (55-17, in a game that was closer for longer than it should have been). The defense has been trending in the wrong direction, and that could be a problem going against one of the better offenses in the country. Though No. 16 UCLA has its own defensive problems – exposed in last week’s disappointing loss to Arizona – I think the Bruins bounce back and down USC in a shootout, eliminating the Pac-12 from the College Football Playoff once again. -- Jace Evans
USC's path to Pac-12 party is closed off by UCLA
UCLA beats USC to capture the crosstown rivalry and potentially book a spot in the Pac-12 championship game based on how things unfold on the final weekend of November. Most importantly, though, the Bruins’ win hands the Trojans a second loss and ends the league’s chances of reaching the playoff. While the Pac-12 has shown some impressive depth with six teams in the latest playoff rankings, a UCLA victory would give each team at least two losses. -- Paul Myerberg
Arkansas makes things worse for Mississippi
There's an adage that you don't let a team beat you twice if you suffered an emotional loss. That should be on the bulletin board for Mississippi after the Rebels were narrowly defeated against Alabama in a game that knocked them out of the SEC title race. Faced with a road trip to Arkansas, an opponent that has lost its last two games by five combined points, this is the classic letdown situation for Ole Miss. The rushing attack of the Razorbacks, who still need a win to get bowl-eligible, will prove too much and the Rebels will fall in a result that wipes out any chance of them making a New Year's Six game. -- Erick Smith
Don't expect fireworks with Minnesota and Iowa on field
The bronze pig named Floyd of Rosedale, the greatest trophy in all of sports, is on the line this weekend as border rivals Minnesota and Iowa square off in the Twin Cities. I don’t know which school will get to keep the porcine prize this year, but I can say this with confidence – if you like high-octane passing games with two teams zipping up and down the field at breakneck speed, well, this is not the game for you.
The Golden Gophers are heavily reliant on their running game spearheaded by Mo Ibrahim, but pounding the rock against the brick wall that is the Hawkeyes’ ground defense is generally not a recipe for success. On the other hand, Minnesota can play some defense, too, especially against teams that aren’t terribly effective at moving the ball – like Iowa. As of this writing, the books have a posted total of 31½ for this game. That’s extraordinarily low, but I might still be inclined to go under if I were a wagering person. Even Floyd might get bored watching this one. -- Eddie Timanus
Big day for Drake Maye and North Carolina
By the end of this weekend, North Carolina freshman quarterback Drake Maye will be the favorite for the Heisman Trophy. Maye’s stats are already incredible — especially his ratio of 34 touchdowns to three interceptions.
They’ll likely be even better after this weekend as the Tar Heels face a Georgia Tech team that is backsliding as the season winds down.
Though the Yellow Jackets are a somewhat respectable 58th nationally in passing defense, they gave up 35 points last week to a Miami (Fla.) team whose offense has been awful all year. That suggests Georgia Tech might be letting go of the rope a bit as it sees the finish line with a new coaching staff coming in next season.
The bottom line is that Maye will likely have another huge day, and in a year where no clear Heisman front-runner has emerged he could end up being the logical choice because nobody in the country has had a more impressive season as a passer.
Also, North Carolina is still sneakily in the playoff mix with opportunities to play North Carolina State next week and Clemson in the ACC title game.
Maye has gotten more Heisman buzz for 2023 than this year, but he could go to the front of the line with monster stats on a North Carolina team that finishes 12-1 or 11-2 -- Dan Wolken