College Football Playoff rankings prediction: Expect drama over Michigan, Ohio State

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There is a good chance the debut College Football Playoff rankings have a very different look than this week's US LBM Coaches Poll.

That's because the two teams that top the Coaches Poll, Georgia and Michigan, could find themselves behind one, two or even three teams come Tuesday night, when the selection committee convenes for the first of six times this season. The final rankings will be issued on Dec. 3.

To start, Michigan has one of the most interesting résumés of any unbeaten team in playoff history. The scandal-mired Wolverines have bulldozed eight opponents and resembled the most-dominant team in the Bowl Subdivision. But they've done so against one of the weakest schedules in the Power Five, though that metric will be boosted by November games against Penn State and Ohio State.

Where will the committee land on Michigan? Can the Buckeyes land at No. 1 despite a series of closer-than-expected wins?

The debut rankings will provide insight into how the committee views the best teams in the FBS and a roadmap for how these rankings may unfold during the final month-plus of the year. Here's our prediction for Tuesday night's top 10:

1. Georgia (8-0)

You can't dig into Georgia's argument for No. 1 without recognizing the human element involved in the selection process. Can the committee consider the Bulldogs without taking into account the back-to-back national championships? Georgia may have looked beatable at times but has been at its best against the best teams on the schedule in Kentucky (51-13) and Florida (43-20).

2. Ohio State (8-0)

It's all about the strength of schedule. The Buckeyes' wins against Penn State and Notre Dame are unmatched among the Power Five unbeatens, and represent two of five victories overall against opponents with a non-losing record. That OSU has struggled at times is something to consider, though, and could result in the Buckeyes landing at No. 3 or No. 4.

3. Florida State (8-0)

Six of Florida State's eight wins are against Power Five teams with a non-losing record: LSU (6-2), Boston College (5-3), Clemson (4-4), Virginia Tech (4-4), Syracuse (4-4) and Duke (5-3). That might be enough to get the Seminoles ahead of OSU and maybe even Georgia, especially if the committee places high value on that season-opening win against the Tigers.

4. Michigan (8-0)

The committee could decide to wade into the sign-stealing scandal that has become the biggest story in college football and discuss the cloud that currently hangs over the program. The group is still likely to praise Michigan's eye-opening play while questioning a schedule that simply doesn't stack up with the other undefeated contenders in the mix for the top four. In a crowded grouping, that's the sort of obvious detail the committee has long used to differentiate among similar teams.

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5. Washington (8-0)

The Huskies should have what the committee views as the best single win in the country, should Oregon be the top-ranked one-loss team. How they've played in the two weeks since has been concerning, however. UW was surprisingly ineffective in a 15-7 win against Arizona State, then was pushed to the limit in Saturday's shootout win against Stanford.

6. Oregon (7-1)

The analytics are going to love Oregon's balance of explosiveness (7.81 yards per play), ball protection (FBS-fewest two turnovers) and potent defense (4.7 yards per play allowed, second in the Pac-12). And the committee will also highlight the Ducks' four Power Five road wins, most notably Saturday's 35-6 demolition of Utah.

7. Texas (7-1)

The Longhorns have a feather in their cap by virtue of September's road win against Alabama. Look for the committee to hammer that point home. Texas also has five wins against Power Five teams with a non-losing record and an explainable neutral-site loss to Oklahoma.

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8. Alabama (7-1)

Alabama would be No. 1 had it defeated the Longhorns. Even with that loss, the committee will be deeply impressed by the Crimson Tide's ranked wins against Mississippi and Tennessee, along with road SEC wins against Mississippi State and Texas A&M. (The committee always likes Alabama, period.) The Tide play LSU this weekend and can make another statement by essentially locking up the SEC West with a win.

9. Oklahoma (7-1)

Look for the committee to ignore head-to-head results in the case of OU and Texas. While the Sooners topped the Longhorns earlier this month, they also had a series of close calls against SMU, Cincinnati and Central Florida before Saturday's loss to Kansas. While that's likely a top-25 loss, the committee will dock OU's relative lack of game control compared to other one-loss contenders.

10. Mississippi (7-1)

One-loss Penn State has a very good chance of landing at No. 10 thanks to an outstanding defense and solid wins against West Virginia and Iowa. But the Nittany Lions get nothing out of two non-conference wins (Delaware and Massachusetts) and were unimpressive their last time out, a 33-24 win against Indiana. That could allow the Rebels to sneak into the top 10 on the backs of wins against Tulane and LSU, along with the strong loss to the Crimson Tide.