Bowl scenarios change for the Louisville Cardinals after Governor's Cup loss to Kentucky

College football rivalry week has changed the postseason outlook for many teams across the country. Close losses for some teams - like Ohio State's loss to Michigan in Ann Arbor or Louisville's 38-31 loss to Kentucky - has implications for conference title games and subsequent bowl games.

Louisville gained national attention this fall after a 33-20 win over Notre Dame in Week 6. But a shock loss to Pitt the following week and now a one-score loss in the Governor's Cup moves them to 10-2 on the season. They remain 7-1 in the ACC but their postseason possibilities look a lot different compared to 24 hours ago. Here's how the postseason could play out for the Cardinals in 2023.

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Will Louisville play in the ACC title game?

Yes. Regardless of the outcome of No. 4 Florida State's road game against Florida, the Cardinals will play the Seminoles for the ACC championship on Dec. 2.

Seminoles quarterback Jordan Travis' injury in the North Alabama game is season-ending. Travis was a Heisman contender at times this season and losing him is a blow to Florida State's College Football Playoff hopes. Travis or not, Louisville's facing a tough task to win the ACC title game against the Seminoles.

Can Louisville make the College Football Playoff?

Technically yes, but it'd take a lot of help from other teams near the top of the College Football Playoff rankings. The Cardinals would need to beat Florida State by a wide margin for the ACC title and hope No. 5 Washington, No. 7 Texas, No. 3 Michigan, and No. 8 Alabama all lose their respective title conference games. In that scenario, they'd be in play to join a College Football Playoff field of Georgia and Oregon. It'd be hard to argue for a two-loss Cardinals squad over a hypothetical one-loss Michigan or Ohio State, but not impossible.

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Which bowl game is most likely for the Louisville Cardinals?

If the Cardinals lose the ACC title game against Florida State, the Seminoles would likely be one of the four teams playing in the College Football Playoff over a one-loss Ohio State or Pac-12 runner-up. A 10-3 Louisville team would instead be a near-lock for the Orange Bowl against a Big Ten or SEC squad. Potential Orange Bowl opponents include Ohio State or Alabama if neither is included in the College Football Playoff.

If Louisville beats Florida State but other teams ahead of them in the rankings also win, they'll still take an Orange Bowl berth.

If Florida State wins but is left out of the College Football Playoff, the Cardinals would get bumped out of the Orange Bowl and instead get an at-large bowl bid for either the Fiesta, Peach, or Cotton Bowls. It's hard to predict which one or the opponent but likely foes include Alabama, Texas, Missouri, Penn State, and either Oregon or Washington depending on the Pac-12 title game outcome.

How to watch: ACC title game between No. 9 Louisville and No. 4 Florida State

The Cardinals and the Seminoles will square off for the ACC title game on Saturday, Dec. 2 at 8:00 p.m., ET on ABC.

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