College Football Playoff preview: Texas hosts Clemson in first-round matchup
Texas lost the SEC championship game in overtime to Georgia but will make a soft landing as the top at-large seed in the College Football Playoff.
As a reward for being the No. 5 seed, the Longhorns will draw No. 12 Clemson, winners of the ACC, and with a win advance to meet No. 4 seed Arizona State in the Peach Bowl.
But all is not right in Austin, not when there are some major questions around the play of quarterback Quinn Ewers, the state of an underachieving running game and whether the Longhorns have been tested enough by a relatively easy schedule by SEC standards.
Meanwhile, Clemson road a wave of emotion across the seven-day span between losing to rival South Carolina and then beating SMU on a 56-yard field goal as time expired to earn an automatic playoff berth.
The Tigers will be the underdogs in this matchup at Texas, set for Dec. 21. Here’s what to watch:
When Texas has the ball
Ewers’ lack of development in his third year as a starter with the Longhorns has been one of the most disappointing subplots to what has been an uneven season for the team's offense. Texas was held under 21 points four times in the second half of the regular season and was held under wraps in the two matchups against Georgia.
Ewers threw at least one interception in seven of his 11 starts and averaged more than 7.8 yards per attempt just once in SEC play, in a rout of Florida in early November. That he struggled in those two games against the Bulldogs is a major concern heading into the matchup with Clemson, which is tied for 13th in the Bowl Subdivision with 15 interceptions and ranks 14th in opposing completion percentage.
The two keys for Texas: protect Ewers in the pocket and get the running game going. The Longhorns have allowed 28 sacks, tied for 87th in the FBS. And the ground game disappeared against the Bulldogs, who gave limited them to 60 yards on 58 carries in the two matchups.
When Clemson has the ball
As with Texas, the Tigers’ chances are hinged to the play of quarterback Cade Klubnik. He had one touchdown against two interceptions and averaged just 5.4 yards per throw in Clemson’s three losses; in all other games, Klubnik had 34 touchdowns against just three picks.
This continues a trend for Clemson and its quarterback. Across his three seasons, Klubnik has five touchdowns and nine interceptions in the Tigers’ nine losses and 49 touchdowns against eight picks when Clemson wins. As he goes, so do the Tigers.
To help, Clemson will have to establish something positive in the running game. That will be easier said than done against one of the top defenses in the FBS. Texas leads the nation in yards allowed per play and has often been dominant against the run, holding six opponents under 100 yards and allowing just one to average more than 3.8 yards per carry.
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The coaches: Dabo Swinney and Steve Sarkisian
This is comfortable territory for Dabo Swinney and Clemson. That edge is negated somewhat by the Longhorns’ run to the playoff last season, though that experience pales in comparison to the Tigers’ seven playoff trips since the format debuted in 2014. Swinney led Clemson to the championship game in four of six playoff appearances in the four-team format.
Texas coach Steve Sarkisian has pushed nearly all the right buttons in leading the Longhorns back to national prominence. But there are concerns over the road this team faced to this point and those two losses to the only ranked opponent on the schedule.
Prediction
Texas has the defense to win a low-scoring game if Ewers and the offense struggle to get things moving against Clemson. But Ewers’ penchant for turnovers would be an issue if this game remains tight in the fourth quarter. The Longhorns still have the on-paper edge in talent and execution against an opponent that barely sneaked into the playoff as the lowest-ranked seed.
Texas 30, Clemson 23