Penn State vs. SMU: Predictions, odds for College Football Playoff first-round game
The College Football Playoff first-round games kick off with the highly anticipated matchup between the SMU Mustangs and the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania on Saturday afternoon.
Despite a tough 45-37 lost to Oregon in the Big Ten championship game, Penn State had a strong season, finishing as conference runners-up with an 11-2 record and earning the No. 6 seed in the CFP. The Nittany Lions are led by quarterback Drew Allar, who posted a 69.1% completion rate with 1,422 passing yards, eight touchdowns, and only two interceptions.
SMU had an impressive 11-2 season, that included an 8-0 conference mark that gave them the conference claim of regular-season champions. Despite losing 34-31 to Clemson in the ACC championship game on a last-second 56-yard field goal, SMU demonstrated its merit for a spot in the CFP. The Mustangs earned the No. 11 seed in the bracket and have been regarded as the Cinderella team for the tournament. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has been a standout performer, completing 66% of his passes for a total of 3,050 yards, with 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Here's what you need to know before the CFP first-round matchup between SMU and Penn State.
CFP first-round predictions: Penn State vs. SMU
USA Today: No. 6 Penn State over No. 11 SMU
Paul Myerberg writes: "Make no mistake, the Mustangs have the firepower on offense to ride into Happy Valley and knock off Penn State. They need to create an up-tempo, high-scoring matchup with quarterback Kevin Jennings using his dual-threat ability. But that’s easier said than done given the Nittany Lions’ ferocious defense. Like Texas, the Nittany Lions need a solid game from Drew Allar at quarterback but has room for error against the ACC runner-up because of its running game with Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen."
ESPN: Penn State has a 67% chance to win
According to ESPN's Matchup Predictor, the Penn State Nittany Lions have a 67.2% chance to beat the SMU Mustangs in the first round of the College Football Playoff.
College Football Network: Penn State 34, SMU 24
James Fragoza writes: "Both teams are tight in most categories, but the Mustangs don’t have any meaningful edge, with the Nittany Lions even leading in penalty yards per game committed (45 to 79), turnover margin (+5 to 0), and time of possession (30:40 to 28:26). The only reason not to back Penn State is Franklin’s propensity to fall flat under the brightest of lights, but I think that comes into play further into the postseason."
CFP first-round odds, lines: Penn State vs. SMU
The Penn State Nittany Lions are favorites to defeat the SMU Mustangs, according to the BetMGM college football odds.
Odds as of Thursday, Dec. 12 afternoon.
- Spread: Penn State (-9)
- Moneylines: Penn State (-340); SMU (+270)
- Over/under: 53.5
How to watch Penn State vs. SMU in CFP first round
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 21
- Time: Noon ET
- TV: TNT
- Stream: Max and Sling
- Where: Beaver Stadium (University Park, PA)
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