NFL scouts paint sobering picture of Michigan football team's biggest weaknesses
The pain resonated inside an empty Big House. Jim Harbaugh appeared crestfallen and sounded dejected.
The Michigan football team he coached had derailed, careening off track during a torturous journey that featured four losses in six games and a COVID-19 shutdown that exacerbated the impact of the crash.
An offseason fraught with anxiety and upheaval followed. Harbaugh signed a contract extension that cut his pay in January, overhauled his staff with six new assistants and revamped the program’s recruiting department.
By the late spring, Harbaugh was back to his old self and reinvigorated by the changes he authorized.
“The energy of this staff is at an all-time high," he crowed in early June at a Ferris State showcase event for high school prospects. “We've gotten bigger, and I believe, stronger, too.”
Michigan fans will have to take him at his word because the team itself remains a mystery. Since this year began, the Wolverines have conducted their affairs behind closed doors. Fans were not admitted to the spring game, which also wasn’t televised.
In lieu of hard evidence, Harbaugh has painted an abstract picture of Michigan football based on hope. There will be a new permanent starter at quarterback, although it’s still unclear who that is. There will be a different defensive scheme, but it’s uncertain how it will be structured. The mastermind of the system, 34-year-old coordinator Mike Macdonald, couldn’t even say when he was introduced to the media in March.
“There’s going to be times where we will look like a 4-3, sometimes we’re going to look like a 6-1, sometimes we’re going to look like a 6-2,” Macdonald said. “Sometimes you’re not gonna know what the heck it looks like. It’s hard for me to say that we’re going to be a 3-4, per se.”
Skeptics would suggest Michigan is being purposely vague and discreet because the program has something to hide. Perhaps that is true. The Free Press obtained some preliminary draft grades from the NFL’s two major scouting services and they offer a sobering glimpse at the talent level of the most experienced players on the roster.
While the team’s defensive linchpin, edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, is pegged as a potential first- or second-round pick, none of his senior teammates are viewed in a similar light. Safety Brad Hawkins, who received the team’s second-highest rating by National Football Scouting, is seen as an early Day 3 selection. BLESTO, which is affiliated with eight NFL franchises, gave Hawkins an even lower grade.
It gets worse though. As of now, NFS has deemed running back Hassan Haskins and lineman Andrew Stueber as the only two draftable offensive players.
The evaluations, which are generally conducted by entry-level scouts, offer damning indictments of Michigan’s 2017 and 2018 signing classes that set the program on the course it’s now aiming to correct. Many of the players who arrived on campus those years left the Wolverines before making a significant impact. The ones who have remained still haven’t realized their full potential.
Even Hutchinson has yet to blossom into a full-fledged star after a right-ankle fracture in November curtailed what many assumed would be a breakout season for the Michigan legacy. And with Kwity Paye no longer on the other end, opponents will have more flexibility to further neutralize Hutchinson.
It’s why there is understandable doubt about the Wolverines’ prospects this fall, as ESPN’s Football Power Index summarized with a projected win total somewhere north of six. The residual effect of two consecutive underwhelming recruiting classes has proved damaging and will likely linger into next year as the Wolverines continue to endure the most challenging period of Harbaugh’s tenure. It has also drawn attention to Michigan’s most glaring problems — talent evaluation and development. Harbaugh spent the offseason addressing those issues by blowing up his staff and building out a new one. The moves, in turn, created positive momentum and optimism.
But the guts of a deficient roster remain along with a group of upperclassmen who may not have the ability to restore the Wolverines. That grim reality clouds the abstract picture of hope Harbaugh has tried to paint.
Follow Rainer Sabin on Twitter @RainerSabin.