Why USC and UCLA move to Big Ten could help Big 12 in conference realignment | Opinion
STILLWATER, Okla. — OU and Texas pulled a boulder from the base of the mountain last summer. Now the avalanche is in full swing.
The San Jose Mercury News first reported Thursday that Southern Cal and UCLA are headed to the Big Ten in 2024 — the conference later voted Thursday to approve the schools' admission — which could be even before OU and Texas get to the Southeastern Conference, and conference realignment never has been crazier.
What goes around comes around. And what looked like a destitute situation for certain Big 12 schools last summer suddenly seems quite a bit brighter. USC and UCLA are bulwarks of the Pac-12, but now it’s the Pac-12 that looks staggered.
This kind of quake might be fatal to the Big 12 and every other conference this side of the Big Ten and the SEC. But the Trojans’ and Bruins’ move also might be a bonanza for the Big 12, in both status and potential expansion.
This we know for sure: The move of USC and UCLA is a worthy counter to the SEC bombshell of last summer. Collectively, OU and Texas are bigger names than USC and UCLA (mostly courtesy of UCLA’s diminished football status). But the Big Ten’s foray into the Los Angeles market means its media contracts can rival the SEC’s, which frankly is all that matters to many of the decision-makers.
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The USC/UCLA fit with the Big Ten is not as tidy as OU/Texas to the SEC. The nearest Big Ten school to LA is Nebraska; Los Angeles sits 1,498 miles from Lincoln.
Those UCLA softball trips to Bloomington, Indiana, in early April, and those USC baseball trips to Madison, Wisconsin, in late March, are going to be culture shock for both sides.
OU and Texas face no such adjustments. Similar weather, similar passions, similar cultures to their new SEC brethren.
The move of the SEC and Big Ten to 16-team mega-conferences creates an even bigger schism in major-college football. The revenue difference between those leagues and the other Power Five conferences is expected to eventually double.
Will those leagues stop at 16? Seems unlikely. Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State and Oregon remain outside those two power brokers, not to mention the likes of Oklahoma State, Baylor, Kansas State, Washington, Miami and Virginia Tech. Lots of quality candidates.
If the SEC and Big Ten keep expanding to 20 or 24, the other conferences are goners in status and will be relegated to a lesser class officially. OSU is no candidate for the Big Ten, which retains its snooty academic convention. But the Cowboys in an expanded SEC would work well.
But if the SEC and Big Ten stay at 16, there’s no option for the other leagues except to keep plugging along, and the Big 12 suddenly has gone from the weakest link to somewhere north of that.
In the same way that some Big 12 members scrambled to draw Pac-12 interest last summer, some Pac-12 members could be considering a Big 12 parachute.
The Pac-12 is cornered. Without USC and UCLA, the league has only Washington and Oregon as national-type brands, with no means for meaningful expansion. Oregon and Washington would be considered likely for future Big Ten expansion.
But the Big 12 still could swing for both. The Big 12 already has carved a Northwest passage, with the addition of Brigham Young.
The Big 12 could solicit Oregon, Washington and either Utah or Boise State or both.
If Oregon and Washington are holding out for the Big Ten, the Big 12 could make a run at Arizona State and Arizona, which coupled with some combination of Utah, Boise State or Colorado, would give the conference some intriguing options for television network suitors.
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A new-look Big 12 with four additional Pac-12 members would secure the conference as third in the college athletics’ pecking order. The Pac-12 would be moot. The Atlantic Coast Conference still would have Clemson and Florida State (and potentially, I suppose, Miami, if the Hurricanes get their act together under new football coach Mario Cristobal), but the ACC’s depth falls quickly.
Some have suggested a Big 12/Pac-12 merger, which with the departures of USC and UCLA would leave such a conference with 22 members.
Doesn’t strike me as working, but it is rich to think about. A year ago, the Pac-12 was dismissive of merger thoughts. Now it’s the Big 12 that would be reluctant to become partners.
No matter what happens, OU and Texas are in the ark safely, in the SEC.
And no matter what happens, OSU seems to be in solid shape, either with the SEC if the super-conference trend continues, or in a revamped Big 12.
Follow Berry Tramel on Twitter @BerryTramel