Michigan State football has already created a winning formula
EAST LANSING — Bit by bit, Jack Velling can see it all coming together. The wide-zone running scheme. The play-action passing game that stems from it. The balance that allows Michigan State football to keep opponents off guard and dominate the ball.
Right before the tight end's eyes, the Spartans’ offense is beginning to resemble the refined operation he played in at Oregon State under Jonathan Smith, the head coach he followed to MSU last December to launch a brand new venture.
“We’re close,” Velling said in one breath.
“We’re moving the ball on everyone we play,” he noted in another. “We’ve just got to finish better.”
It has become a common lament inside a program with the most turnovers and the worst red-zone conversion rate in the Big Ten. Those shortcomings have hurt MSU over the course of the season but particularly last Saturday in a 24-17 loss to Michigan, a game in which the Spartans were statistically superior in several categories — most notably rushing output and time of possession. MSU outgained the Wolverines by 44 yards on the ground and controlled the ball for 14 minutes longer.
The advantages they created in both areas should have helped MSU concoct Smith’s winning formula for the second time in a span of eight days.
But a week after the Spartans won the possession battle by 20 minutes and ran for 79 more yards than Iowa in a 32-20 victory, Smith’s recipe of success was polluted by the Spartans’ own self-inflicted errors. A promising first drive went up in smoke after MSU advanced all the way down to Michigan’s 2-yard line. A delay of game penalty foiled a potential fourth-down play and seconds later MSU’s dependable kicker, Jonathan Kim, pushed a 25-yard try wide of the uprights.
“At the end of the day,” running back Nate Carter said, “we shoot ourselves in the foot a lot.”
The Spartans did so again late in a first half they had dictated. Just after Michigan pulled within a point with 29 seconds remaining in the second quarter, MSU tried to mount a quick response. But as Aidan Chiles veered outside the pocket to extend a play, Wolverines edge defender Josaiah Stewart chased him down and ripped the ball away from the sophomore quarterback’s grasp. The fumble deep inside MSU territory set up a field goal that left MSU with a two-point deficit as it returned to the locker room.
“It wasn’t the smartest play,” Chiles rued days later. “It was just a rookie mistake again.”
The errors have been damaging, overshadowing the visible progress made over the course of the season. But it’s undeniable MSU’s offense has experienced real growth, especially within its foundational running game. Following the team’s Week 7 bye, Carter and Kay’ron Lynch-Adams found their groove within the rhythm-based wide-zone scheme, allowing a maturing offensive line in front of them to open multiple lanes before they make their decisive cuts up field.
“The more reps guys have gotten next to each other, we’re starting to build that continuity,” Smith said after the win over Iowa.
The synchronicity is becoming increasingly evident as a result. Carter and Lynch-Adams, running backs coach Keith Bhonapha explained, are starting to hit their aiming points at a higher rate, which has led to more consistent gains and lengthier drives. Before Ryan Eckley was summoned to kick the ball away with 9:12 left in the second quarter last Saturday, the last time he punted was at the 4:25 mark of the third quarter of MSU’s 31-10 loss at Oregon on Oct. 4. Between those two points, Eckley remained on the sideline for 15 straight possessions.
“We want to control the game with our offense,” Velling said.
That could prove to be the key to an upset victory this Saturday against No. 13 Indiana, which has harnessed a high-octane attack to make a remarkable 8-0 ascent under first-year coach Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers have scored 46.5 points per game, the second-highest average in the entire Football Bowl Subdivision. The eye-popping production isn’t fluky either. The advanced metrics affirm Indiana is a powerhouse that ranks fifth in drive success rate and fourth in opponent-adjusted efficiency, according to the Fremeau Efficiency Index. The Hoosiers' propensity to score in bunches places the onus on Chiles and Co. to sustain drives.
“Keeping other offenses off the field is big for our team in general,” Chiles said. “It basically puts us in better positions to win the game.”
A defense that was often taxed under the previous regime can attest to that. A year after MSU ranked 85th in opponent plays per game, the Spartans are 25th in the same category, facing six fewer snaps per game on average. That number has gone down primarily because MSU’s time of possession has increased by more than 3½ minutes.
Not surprisingly, that has correlated in better performance, as the Spartans have allowed far fewer yards and points per game than they did last fall. It also shows that MSU is effectively following Smith’s blueprint of complementary football, even if it isn’t always getting the results it seeks.
It's an encouraging sign for a program that is still in the middle of a transition in all sectors, but especially so within an offense that sets the tone for Smith’s entire operation.
“It’s the first year for a lot of these guys,” Velling explained. “They’re still getting used to it. But we’re close. … We’ve just got to keep taking steps each week.”