Penn State's Big Ten championship rooting guide: Who Nittany Lions need to win, lose
With just two games remaining in the regular season, Penn State is in a strong, enviable position to make the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history.
The Nittany Lions enter their game Saturday at Minnesota with a 9-1 record, a No. 4 ranking in the US LBM Coaches Poll and, most importantly, the No. xx spot in the latest rankings from the College Football Playoff selection committee.
Not all of coach James Franklin’s team’s goals are so easily within reach, though.
Penn State is on the outside looking in for a spot in the Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis, with the winner of that contest earning a top-four seed to the newly expanded 12-team playoff and, with it, a first-round bye.
What will it take for the Nittany Lions to earn one of the top two spots in the conference standings and just their second trip ever to the Big Ten championship game?
Here’s a look at the scenarios Penn State fans should hope for over the next two weeks if they want to see their team competing for a league title:
Penn State rooting guide to make Big Ten championship game
Before the Nittany Lions’ preferred scenario is laid out, it’s worth considering that it might be better for them not to make the championship game at all and not risk having another loss added to their resume.
If Penn State wins its next two games to finish 11-1, it will almost certainly earn one of the playoff’s seven at-large berths, and would likely have a home game in the playoff's opening round. While a win in the Big Ten title game would mean an automatic berth to the playoff quarterfinals, a loss would create at least some uncertainty about whether a suddenly two-loss team would be one of those at-large inclusions.
As things stand now, the Nittany Lions are tied for third in the conference standings with Ohio State, which functionally puts them in fourth place since the Buckeyes beat them 20-13 on Nov. 2 at Beaver Stadium. Both teams are 6-1 in league play, putting them behind 7-0 Indiana and 8-0 Oregon. The Ducks, the No. 1 team in the Coaches Poll, are on bye this week and have just one regular-season game remaining.
Given that, here’s the most likely scenario that Penn State and its fans should root for to make it to the Big Ten championship game:
Penn State wins out
This goes without saying: For the Nittany Lions to have any realistic chance at finishing in the top two in an 18-team conference, they’ll need to win their final two games to go 8-1 in Big Ten play.
That should be a doable task. As of early this week, they’re an 11.5-point favorite on the road against a 6-4 Minnesota team, though it’s worth noting that Penn State has lost each of its past two trips to Minneapolis, including in 2019 as the No. 5 team in the country. After that, it gets a home game against Maryland, which is 1-6 in Big Ten play this season. The Nittany Lions are 43-3-1 all-time against the Terrapins.
Ohio State beats Indiana in Week 13
The Big Ten championship participants based on the current standings are straightforward, with Oregon and Indiana both holding on to undefeated records. While it’s unlikely the Ducks will lose, with only a home game against 6-5 Washington remaining, the Hoosiers have a less navigable road.
There’s perhaps no bigger game Saturday than No. 5 Indiana’s matchup at No. 2 Ohio State. With only lowly Purdue remaining on the Hoosiers’ schedule after that, it’s the only realistic chance Indiana has at a loss before a potential conference championship game.
As of Tuesday night, the Buckeyes are a 12.5-point favorite.
Indiana beats Purdue in Week 14
Of all the steps listed on here, this is by far the most likely to transpire. The Boilermakers are 1-9 this season and have yet to beat an FBS opponent. They have lost those nine games by an average of 29.6 points and have only twice gotten within 17 points.
Against the host Hoosiers, it will be a statistical mismatch, as Purdue has the fourth-worst scoring defense in the FBS (38.9 points per game allowed) while Indiana has the second-best scoring offense (43.9 points per game).
Michigan beats Ohio State in Week 14
This is where thinks get a little more unrealistic. The Wolverines have fallen off considerably from where they were last season as an undefeated national champion. Michigan is 5-5 heading into a game Saturday against Northwestern, though four of its five losses came to teams that were ranked at the time of the matchup.
Beating the Buckeyes, though, would be quite the tall order, especially since the game is taking place in Columbus.
What would happen
As the Big Ten announced on Tuesday, Oregon has already secured a spot in the championship game, no matter what transpires these next two weekends. Even if the Ducks lose to Washington and everything else falls into place as outlined here, Penn State would still make it to Indianapolis on Dec. 7, when it would face the Ducks.
If Oregon beats Washington and everything previously laid out occurs, the Ducks would be 9-0 in conference play, ahead of Indiana and Penn State, which would be in a two-way tie for second place at 8-1. That deadlock would be broken by opponents’ conference win percentage, with the Hoosiers’ conference foes currently at 18-34 and the Nittany Lions’ at 23-29. That’s subject to change over these next two weekends, but Penn State has enough of a cushion in that category.
Big Ten football championship tiebreakers
Here’s a list of the steps, in order, the Big Ten takes to break ties and determine which teams make the conference championship game:
- The tied teams will be compared based on head-to-head matchups during the regular season.
- The tied teams will be compared based on record against all common conference opponents.
- The tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings.
- The tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
- The representative will be chosen based on the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics following the regular season.
- The representative will be chosen by random draw among the tied teams conducted by the conference commissioner or designee.