The Week 12 games that most impact the Playoff
With matters in the SEC all but settled, the spotlight turns to the other power leagues in the push for conference championships and College Football Playoff qualifications. In particular, the focus this week is on conferences with numbers — whether accurate or not.
Here are the Week 12 games that will have the most impact on the stretch drive for the playoff.
No. 9 Michigan State at No. 2 Ohio State
3:30 p.m. ET, ABC | 5dimes line: Ohio State by 13½
It seems we’ve been waiting all year for the defending champion Buckeyes to play a meaningful game. Though it’s not as if Ohio State’s ride to 10-0 has been free of drama, the fact is only two of their wins have been by single-digit margins. OSU’s QB situation has stabilized now with J.T. Barrett back at the helm, but the most consistent weapon on the offense throughout the year has been TB Ezekiel Elliott. He’s been able to exploit both Barrett’s own ability to scramble as well as Cardale Jones’s threat to throw deep when he is in the game.
Elliott will have to be the top priority for veteran Spartans LBs Riley Bullough and Darien Harris. Michigan State has been in more close contests, one of which infamously got away from them at Nebraska. The week’s biggest question revolves around the throwing shoulder of QB Connor Cook, who struggled visibly against Maryland but says he’ll be ready as he returns to his home state. The attack isn’t nearly as effective without him, but he’ll need to have control of his throws. His top WR is Aaron Burbridge, who is sure to get added attention from Buckeyes S Vonn Bell.
No. 10 Baylor at No. 4 Oklahoma State
7:30 p.m. ET, FOX | 5dimes line: Oklahoma State by 1
Preseason projections had this weekend playing out as a prelude to the upcoming clash between last season’s co-champions, the Bears and TCU. It might turn out to be a prelude all right, but the focus could instead be on a Bedlam showdown for the ages if the Oklahoma teams hold serve. Baylor still hopes to be a factor, of course, but their loss to Oklahoma has reduced their already thin margin for error. It doesn’t help matters that QB Jarrett Stidham is experiencing back trouble and is questionable for the game. With opening-day starter Seth Russell already sidelined by a neck injury, no other signal caller on the Bears’ roster has attempted a pass this season.
If Stidham can’t go, sophomore Chris Johnson would be the next man up. Having weapons like TB Shock Linwood and WR Corey Coleman will help, but Cowboys DE Emmanuel Ogbah figures to make things difficult no matter who is taking the snaps for Baylor. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, has rounded into form on offense after some inconsistency early in the campaign. QB Mason Rudolph does most of the downfield work, but the playbook is not limited when backup J.W. Walsh enters to change the pace. The switch could be used frequently if Baylor DE Shawn Oakman finds his way into the backfield too often.
No. 11 TCU at No. 7 Oklahoma
8 p.m. ET, ABC | 5dimes line: Off
The Sooners return home from their triumph at Baylor to take on a shorthanded Horned Frogs squad. Depleted or not, TCU can’t be overlooked by the Sooners on the eve of ‘Bedlam,’ but the recent play of OU QB Baker Mayfield has fans understandably excited. He has increased his completion rate to 70.2% and enters the game with 31 scoring passes. He has backfield support from Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine, but WR Sterling Shepard is the ultimate weapon who can score at any time.
The Horned Frogs, who are already without standout WR Josh Doctson (wrist), might also be missing QB Trevone Boykin (ankle). WR Kolby Listenbee can still stretch the field, but if Boykin is sidelined or limited, LB Dominique Alexander and his Sooners teammates will be able to focus on TCU TB Aaron Green.
No. 12 North Carolina at Virginia Tech
Noon ET, ESPN | 5dimes line: North Carolina by 5
The ACC Atlantic already belongs to top-ranked Clemson. The Coastal race is also, for all intents and purposes, decided. But the Tar Heels would like to make it official this week rather than next with archrival N.C. State on the schedule. But the Hokies are a victory away from bowl eligibility, and they’d love to get it Saturday in the final home game for legendary coach Frank Beamer.
In what is sure to be a charged atmosphere, UNC QB Marquise Williams would like to take the crowd out of the game quickly. He’s had the offense humming of late, with plenty of help from TB Elijah Hood and WR Ryan Switzer. But a Virginia Tech defense is always a formidable challenge; LB Andrew Motuapuaka is one of the many playmakers along the Hokies’ front that must be accounted for. Hokies QB Michael Brewer went out with an injury in the opener against Ohio State and is still trying to regain his rhythm. His biggest concern figures to be Tar Heels S Donnie Miles.
California at No. 15 Stanford
10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN | 5dimes line: Stanford by 11
The Cardinal never need additional motivation when the "Big Game" rolls around. But they have some nevertheless as they try once again to close out the Pac-12 North and keep their dwindling playoff hopes alive with a visit from Notre Dame on deck. The Golden Bears are concerned with none of this, of course. They’ve secured bowl eligibility and now hope to move up in the pecking order. If that means putting a crimp in the plans of their Bay Area rival, so much the better.
Cal’s problem, however, is its defense has not handled balanced offense well. Stanford will present such a challenge with QB Kevin Hogan able to utilize multiple position groups. TB Christian McCaffrey, WR Michael Rector and TE Austin Hooper all know the way to the end zone. Golden Bears QB Jared Goff is capable of keeping pace, but he must not add to his total of 13 INTs as he looks for his main TD catcher, WR Kenny Lawler.
No. 24 Southern California at No. 22 Oregon
3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN | 5dimes line: Oregon by 4½
The Ducks kept their conference title hopes alive last week, and they’ll try to keep the heat on Stanford as they take the field first on Saturday. But the Trojans, equally motivated to maintain control of their own destiny in the Pac-12 South, aren’t particularly concerned about Oregon’s position. A few interested parties in South Bend and East Lansing might be keeping one eye on the proceedings in Eugene, but the teams involved will have their own worries.
Ducks QB Vernon Adams has been making better use of the entire playbook as the season has progressed, but TB Royce Freeman remains the most consistent threat. The Trojans’ efforts to contain him will be hindered by the recent losses of LBs Cameron Smith (knee) and Lamar Dawson (shoulder). On the plus side for USC is the solid play of QB Cody Kessler. The latest casualty for Oregon was CB Tyree Robinson, who left the Stanford win with a foot injury and might not be available.