Kyler or Kyle: Which quarterback gives Texas A&M the best chance?

Kyle Allen may have won Texas A&M’s starting quarterback job in the summer, but he’s going to have a hard time holding onto it throughout the fall.

The Aggies’ 38-17 Week 1 win against Arizona State created more questions than answers for Kevin Sumlin’s offense, most notably: Which of his two quarterbacks, Allen or freshman Kyler Murray, is more capable of getting the offense back to the form it enjoyed during the Johnny Manziel era in College Station?

Comparing the two is difficult given their very different styles of play. Allen is the steadier hand in the pocket, but offers very little in the quarterback run game. Murray looked uncomfortable in the pocket against Arizona State but sliced up its defense with his legs.

Based on the raw statistics, Allen was the better player in Houston on Saturday night.  He led the Aggies on four touchdown drives and threw for two scores, while Murray was shut out of the end zone.

The raw statistics, lacking any context, are a bit misleading, however. The Texas A&M running game was a non-factor against the Sun Devils, but the few times it did get going, Allen was the beneficiary. Only 14 of his 50 (28%) snaps were what we’ll call passing situations — defined as second-and-8 or longer and third-and-5 or longer—compared to 11 of 29 (38%) for Murray.

The running game kept Allen in favorable situations. It was not as generous to his freshman counterpart. Running backs averaged 4.3 yards-per-carry with Allen on the field and just 2.4 yards with Murray behind center.

In passing situations, though, Murray was by far the superior player. The Aggies converted on seven-of-11 passing downs with the freshman on the field and averaged over 11 yards a play. A&M converted only 3-of-14 passing situations with Allen on the field and less than 2 yards per play.

When the offense needed a play from the quarterback, Murray was able to deliver; Allen was not.

You don’t need any numbers from Saturday night to figure out who the more explosive player is. After Murray broke contain and took off for a couple big scrambles, Arizona State coach Todd Graham had to dial back the pressure that was giving Texas A&M’s offense fits and go with a more conservative approach. And that’s the kind of strain  that players like Murray put on opposing defenses.

Against Allen, Arizona State could employ its typical aggressive blitzing with man coverage on the back end. The Aggies receivers did not have enough time to separate from man coverage, and Allen was not willing to take any chances downfield.

Playing man coverage against dual-threat quarterbacks like Murray is an untenable strategy, as the Sun Devils found out. With the secondary turning its back to the pocket, Murray has only the front line to beat for a big gain. Even in the SEC, there are not a lot of players capable of corralling the diminutive play-maker.

Throw in A&M’s maddening pace, and defensive play-callers’ only option for defending players like Murray is playing vanilla zone concepts. That makes Aggies offensive coordinator Jake Spavital’s job much easier when developing a game plan for a raw passer like Murray.

If Sumlin does go with the freshman, he’ll have a couple games to get him more acclimated to the speed of the college game, which was a problem in Houston. Murray missed a few easy reads against the Sun Devils, including a key fourth down play in the third quarter that could have shifted the momentum of the game.

Against the likes of Ball State and Nevada, Murray will have time to learn from those kinds of mistakes. If he is able to get up to speed, the ceiling on what this offense can be rises considerably. With Allen, a decent passer but not one who can elevate the system, that ceiling remains lower, even if the floor is a bit higher.

When things break down — and against SEC competition they will in most games — Allen has no answers. He was sacked three times by Arizona State. He held onto the ball too long and did not have the athleticism to escape the rush.

Murray had explosive answers against the Sun Devils, which forced the A&M staff’s hand in giving him more playing time on Saturday.

It would have been interesting to see if Sumlin went back to Allen had Murray not suffered an injury in the third quarter. The freshman had played three consecutive drives up until that point — far more than he was expected to play going into the game. And he was still effective despite not having a game plan built around his unique skill-set.

Imagine the damage Murray could do with Sumlin and Spavital designing route concepts to take advantage of the simple coverages Murray will force defensive coordinators to play.

Eventually, Murray will get an extended shot at running the offense this season, and it’s unlikely he’ll ever give it up.