As realignment carousel twirls, SEC must stay vigilant, with eye toward the ACC | Column
The SEC embraced an obvious action two years ago when presented with the choice of either adding Oklahoma and Texas or becoming a bystander while those schools explored other conference destinations.
Opting for the latter would have been business malpractice.
By adding the Big 12’s top brands in 2021, the SEC became bigger, stronger and more valuable.
It also, though, pulled the level on the realignment carousel, and the SEC wields no more power than any other conference to halt this college athletics carnival ride, which keeps twirling.
The SEC’s expansion predictably set off a chain reaction: The Big Ten raided Southern Cal and UCLA from the Pac-12, and the Big 12 steadied itself by seizing BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, and, recently, Colorado.
And the dust hasn't settled yet.
The Pac-12 teeters like a Jenga tower, while the Big 12 strategizes its next move like a RISK player holding the attack dice. The ACC’s membership remains glued in place by a sticky grant of rights deal, but Florida State is nonetheless weighing a jump, according to multiple reports.
Surely, SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey knew this domino effect was possible – even likely – but I suspect he would push the emergency stop button and shut down this carousel, if only he could.
The status quo works well for the SEC, which enjoys the pole position in conference pecking order as realignment reaches intermission.
The Pac-12 fending off further raids, securing a media rights deal and retaining members like Arizona, Oregon and Washington would be favorable for the SEC. Better off with those schools remaining in the weakest Power Five conference than fortifying the Big 12 or enhancing the Big Ten.
The ACC’s members remaining paralyzed by the grant of rights would be convenient, too. ACC cohesion would ensure the Big Ten remained restricted from SEC terrain.
Sankey says the SEC is focused on its 16-team future. In a vacuum, I believe that. If only it were that simple. The SEC had the power to start realignment two years ago. It doesn’t have the power to stop it. And if ACC members find an escape hatch, the SEC must hop back into the expansion saddle.
The Big Ten’s USC and UCLA additions ensured its place as a Super Two conference, but those additions didn’t catapult the Big Ten past the SEC. Imagine, though, a 20-team Big Ten with Oregon, Washington, North Carolina and Florida State among its ranks.
That would go over with the SEC about like gas station sushi.
Alternatively, the Big 12 growing to 16 members and adding schools like Arizona, Oregon and Washington would narrow the gap between that conference and the SEC and Big Ten.
Two months ago, Sankey said additional expansion has “not been at the forefront” of the SEC's outlook. Maybe not, but expansion remains at the forefront for other conferences, while schools weigh their options, so the SEC might be spurred into action.
“We’re not going to make decisions based just on somebody else’s actions,” Sankey told me in May.
That’s a nice one-liner, but the SEC already made moves based on actions elsewhere. When OU and Texas wanted out of the Big 12, the SEC rolled out the welcome mat. Texas’ flirtation with the Pac-12 more than a decade ago sparked a series of events that resulted in the SEC adding Texas A&M and Missouri.
More: Why the SEC and Big 12 can have thriving college football rivalry
If Florida State or other ACC members are determined to escape the conference's grant of rights, I hardly think the SEC will be content to sit back and let the Big Ten enjoy first choice.
Unless the Pac-12 steadies and the ACC’s seas calm, the SEC can’t exhale. Better for FSU, Clemson and North Carolina to call the SEC home than the Big Ten.
The SEC may prefer to stay at 16 members, but, as much as Sankey might pretend otherwise, the conference’s future expansion actions will be influenced by the Pac-12’s ability to survive, the Big Ten’s movements, and what becomes of the ACC.
The SEC’s seizure of Oklahoma and Texas set this ride in motion, and now the conference must stay vigilant to ensure it retains the highest perch whenever the carousel finally stops spinning.
'An existential crisis': Florida State president, Board of Trustees low on ACC future
Blake Toppmeyer is the Paste BN Network's SEC Columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.
If you enjoy Blake’s coverage, check out his podcast, SEC Football Unfiltered, or access exclusive columns via the SEC Unfiltered newsletter.