Seattle Seahawks not a good bet to make it back to Super Bowl this season
It was, hands down, the most puzzling call of last season.
Little did Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll realize that when he chose not to put the ball in the hands of Marshawn Lynch and opted instead to pass on second-and-goal from the New England Patriots’ 1-yard line in Super Bowl XLIX, a litany of bad luck was waiting for his team.
The worst call in Super Bowl history ended in a game-over interception. And now, seven months later, Seattle is back on the field eager to atone for Carroll’s faux pas. The problem is, wanting to and being able to are quite often two different animals.
Let me explain.
Super Bowl Loser Syndrome
Defending Super Bowl losers have been cursed beyond belief. That’s confirmed by the fact that only seven of the previous 48 Super Bowl losers have managed to return to the big event the following year. And only two were able to secure the winner’s trophy.
From a wagering perspective, my database points out defending Super Bowl losers struggle mightily against the Las Vegas line, beating the spread 48.4% of the time in all games dating to 1980.
Because a player needs to overcome the sports book’s 11-10 vigorish on each play wagered, he must win at least 52.4% against the spread clip to break even.
These same Super Bowl losers are at their absolute worst when favored in away games, going 128-151-8 against the spread.
Us against The Rest Of The World
The schedule-maker did Seattle no favors this season.
Consider: The Seahawks will take on a league-high four opponents coming off a bye week.
In addition, Seattle faces zero foes in the second of two-plus away games (the New York Giants are the only other team in the same boat).
Toss in the fact that Carroll’s crew catches nobody off a Monday night game, and you can understand why the Seahawks’ drew the short straw.
Strength of schedule matters
If all of the above isn’t a tough enough pill for the Seahawks to swallow, they should chew on this: Seattle will take on the NFL’s toughest strength of schedule, according to odds to win the Super Bowl published by Bovada.lv on April 1.
Think about it. For more than just Pete’s sake, had Carroll told Russell Wilson to simply hand the ball to the “The Beast,” everything outlined above would be a moot point.
This Week's Hot Trends
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is 7-0 straight up and against the spread in home openers.
The Dallas Cowboys are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven home openers.
The Green Bay Packers are 18-4 straight up and 17-5 against the spread at the Chicago Bears since 1994, including 5-0 straight up and against the spread in the last five.
The San Francisco 49ers are 0-7 against the spread in their last seven home openers.
Seattle is 1-7 straight up and against the spread in its last eight road opening games.
Defending NFL Super Bowl champions — i.e. the Patriots — love the spotlight, especially when playing in front of the Thursday night cameras. Since 1994, these champions are 19-2 straight up and 14-5-2 against the number, including 13-0 straight up and 9-2-2 against the spread at home. Tom Brady’s Patriots have a 12-1 straight-up mark in home openers.
Suicide pool players note: New England had owned the league’s longest win streak in season openers with 10 consecutive victories until last year’s 13-point loss at the Miami Dolphins. The Cleveland Browns are a paltry 1-15 straight up in openers since re-entering the league in 1999, riding 10 consecutive losses. The Houston Texans are the new leaders in the clubhouse with five consecutive season-opening victories.
Stat of the Week
Super Bowl losers (i.e. the Seahawks) are 2-13 straight up and against the spread away in season-opening games since 1985, including 0-5 straight up and against the spread vs. division opponents.
Marc Lawrence is publisher of the weekly Playbook Football newsletter at Playbook.com and host of the “Marc Lawrence Against the Spread” football podcast.