QB Rank, Week 6: Russell Wilson part of Seahawks' problem
The Seattle Seahawks offense is the biggest statistical anomaly in the NFL right now.
Russell Wilson’s 98.6 passer rating ranks 10th in the league, and he’s on pace for career highs in passing yards, yards per attempt and completion percentage.
The running game, while not the force it has been in years past, is ranked second in the league and producing 4.8 yards per carry. Take away Wilson’s 251 rushing yards on 45 attempts, and you still have a top 10 rushing attack.
Yet somehow, the unit is dead last in touchdowns per drive and 28th in points per drive, per Football Outsiders. (Seattle is 17th in scoring offense, but it’s getting 4.8 points a game from defense and special teams.)
The blame for the team’s offensive struggles has been spread around to a number of culprits, including offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, the offensive line (and coach Tom Cable) and the team’s receiving corps.
Meanwhile, Wilson has been made into a sympathetic figure who is dragging this offense to competency despite the shortcomings surrounding him. The stats back this narrative up, but the film does not.
Wilson is not solely a victim of Seattle’s offensive problems – he is a contributor to them. What makes him so good – his unmatched scrambling and improvisational skills – also works to the detriment of his supporting cast.
Let’s start with the line. It’s bad. It’s composed of under-achieving draft picks and converted defensive linemen. The unit is bleeding sacks and pressures at a historic rate, and they aren’t fully to blame.
Take this play from the Seahawks’ 27-23 loss to the Carolina Panthers in Week 6.
The line gives Wilson plenty of time. There are a couple receivers open. But Wilson holds the ball for far too long and the pressure finally gets to him.
Later in the game, Wilson takes an awful sack that nearly knocks his team out of field goal range. After failing to recognize a blitz pre-snap, he holds onto the ball despite having Jermaine Kearse open for a first down at the bottom of the picture.
These aren’t rare occurrences, either. Sure, there have plenty of unavoidable sacks, but there also have been several that Wilson has run into himself.
No matter how much the stats paint the picture, Wilson is just not a great pocket passer at this point in his career. He’ll make some nice throws from there on occasion, like this beauty to Doug Baldwin, but he won’t stand in there and go through multiple reads. That’s a big reason why Seattle can’t run an expansive passing game.
He needs to escape the pocket to see the field. At 5-foot-11, he’s more comfortable outside the pocket than he is in it, as Baldwin said in an interview with Sports Illustrated.
“The challenge is more that you have an athletic quarterback who trusts his athleticism more than he trusts staying in the pocket,” the receiver said about playing with Wilson. “It happens a lot, so we as receivers have to be experts — not only on our route-running ability, but also on scramble rules.”
For a second week in a row, Wilson’s anxiousness to get out of the pocket may have cost Seattle a game-clinching play.
The first play is against the Cincinnati Bengals in overtime. Wilson tries to take off as soon as he hits the back of his drop, which creates pressure. As he starts to go, Tyler Lockett is coming wide open for what could have been a touchdown if the pass is thrown on time. Instead, Wilson has to reset, and the throw is late and broken up.
On the drive before Carolina’s game-winning score, Wilson missed another possible touchdown because he tried to spin out of a clean pocket instead of stepping up into the space provided by his line.
This is just who Wilson is at this point of his career, and it’s foolish to try to change him. We saw how well trying to confine your athletic quarterback to the pocket went with the Washington Redskins and San Francisco 49ers.
The Seahawks have to live with the bad if they want to enjoy the good. But with a no-longer historically dominant defense, it hasn’t been good enough this season.
Now, on to this week’s rankings…
LAST WEEK vs. IND: 23/37, 312 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception
Brady is human after all. He threw his first interception of the season in Week 6 – what’s that? It was a perfect pass that bounced off Julian Edelman’s hands right to a defender? OK, maybe Brady's not human. He’s on a different planet right now and the clear-cut favorite for league MVP.
LAST WEEK vs. SD: 16/29, 255 yards, 2 touchdowns
We’re starting to see the loss of Jordy Nelson take a toll on Rodgers, who wasn’t at his sharpest Sunday against the Chargers. The downfield throws that he built his 2014 MVP campaign on haven’t been there in 2015. Rodgers has completed only five passes aimed at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage, according to ESPN.
LAST WEEK vs. GB: 43/65, 503 yards, 2 touchdowns
Rivers is on pace to break the single season record for passing yards at 5,643. And he’s doing this with a mess of an offensive line and an arm Chad Pennington wouldn’t trade for. He’s carrying San Diego’s offense, as evidenced by his 65 pass attempts against the Packers.
LAST WEEK vs. ATL: 30/39, 312 yards, 1 touchdown
I’ve been bullish on Brees throughout the entire offseason, and that confidence is finally starting to pay off. The 36-year-old has been excellent the last three weeks, and his renowned accuracy is as good as it’s ever been. He absolutely carved up the Falcons improved secondary in the Saints’ upset win.
LAST WEEK vs. PIT: 29/45, 421 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions
As crazy as it sounds, Palmer’s 421-yard performance against Pittsburgh might be his worst outing in the last two years. He was generally inaccurate on throws down the field and turned the ball over twice. Give credit to the Steelers defense for taking away his first option consistently, but throws like his game-sealing interception was a mistake a QB of his stature cannot make.
LAST WEEK vs. NO: 30/44, 295 yards, 2 touchdowns
This has been the easiest season of Ryan’s career in terms of having to carry the team. Though he’s been good, he hasn’t set the world on fire given what he has to work with. Julio Jones is the best receiver in football. Devonta Freeman has been a revelation running behind an overachieving offensive line. And Kyle Shanahan is in the discussion for best offensive coordinator in the league. Yet Ryan is putting up the same numbers he always had with a lesser supporting cast.
LAST WEEK vs. SEA: 20/36, 269 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions
If you haven’t seen Newton play this season, it’s hard to appreciate how good he has been. His numbers aren’t impressive; Newton ranks in the bottom half of the league in every passing statistic except touchdown passes. But the numbers aren’t painting an accurate picture because of a woeful supporting cast. Two of his four interceptions can be directly blamed on his receiver and offensive line, and he’s had a few would-be touchdowns dropped. Among qualified passers, only Nick Foles has had more passes dropped by receivers, per Pro Football Focus.
LAST WEEK vs. CAR: 18/30, 241 yards, 1 touchdown
After being hard on Wilson, let’s take some time to heap some praise on the best playmaker in the league right now. His ability to throw on the run is in a class of its own, and he’s getting better at pre-snap recognition, even if he has room to grow in that area. Warts and all, he is, undoubtedly, worth every penny of his new contract.
LAST WEEK vs. BUF: 22/33, 243 yards, 3 touchdowns
Dalton is getting some MVP talk, but it's hard to justify. His supporting cast – you could argue his receiver corps, running back stable and offensive line are all in the top five of the league – is far too deep for any one player from that team to be in the discussion for most valuable. On tape, Dalton doesn’t look like a drastically different player, either. His performance against Buffalo was built on one-read throws built to let the receiver do most of the work. Two of his touchdowns came on screen passes followed by extraordinary efforts to get into the end zone. There hasn't been much heavy lifting for Dalton this season.
LAST WEEK vs. PHI: 24/38, 189 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions
I just don’t know what to make of Eli at this point in his career. With the way he operates before the snap and gets the ball out quickly, you know he has good football intelligence. But, man, does he throw some of the worst interceptions you will ever see. His pick-six to Nolan Carroll is inexcusable for a 34-year-old franchise quarterback.
11. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
12. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
13. Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
Andrew Luck impressed in his first start back from injury, but we want to see him string some good starts together before he regains his spot in the top 10. The good news is he avoided a turnover for the first time all season and showed some flashes of what makes him the best young quarterback in the league when going good. ... Jay Cutler continues to elevate the Bears offense with slick pocket movement and an arm that is still one of the best in the league. That Cutler is this high on the list, though, speaks more to the league's current quarterback situation than it does Cutler's potential to turn his career around ... Derek Carr and the Raiders were on a bye in Week 6.
So that’s what happens when you build an offense around your quarterback’s strengths. The 49ers went back to the basics with their offense after Colin Kaepernick’s two-week horror show, and the results have been telling: 62.9 completion percentage, four touchdowns, no interceptions and a passer rating of 119.4. The biggest difference in the 49ers’ approach? Using play-action. In Games 3 and 4, San Francisco used play-action on 15% of Kaepernick’s dropbacks. That number was 40% in the last two games, per Pro Football Focus. For the season, his yards per attempt is 2.4 yards higher on play-action passes.
Instead of playing to the strengths of its most physically talented quarterback, Washington is letting Robert Griffin III rot away on the bench and going with Kirk Cousins behind center. It’s difficult to pinpoint anything that Cousins does particularly well, but he has the unwavering support of coach Jay Gruden, who would sooner blame the wind than critique his quarterback. The 27-year-old is easily fooled by coverages. He’s not particularly accurate. And his arm isn’t special. Cousins is perfectly mediocre. I guess he’s the perfect match for Gruden’s offense.
Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers were not in action in Week 6, and Marcus Mariota probably shouldn’t have been either after taking a shot to the knee and spraining his MCL against Miami. Mariota was clearly bothered by the injury. He could not step into throws and was essentially a statue in the pocket (but somehow less of a statue than backup Zack Mettenberger).
You’re starting to see defenses catch on to the play designs that worked well for the Titans early on, like this run-pass option that resulted in Mariota’s first touchdown in Week 1. The Dolphins intercepted him on the same play Sunday. It will be interesting to see how Mariota responds to adjusting defenses.
BEST THROW OF THE WEEK
Forget the game-winner: This throw from Newton to Greg Olsen was by far the most impressive of the game. Newton diagnoses the coverage immediately and knows he has to beat both K.J. Wright lurking in the middle and Richard Sherman, who is manned up on Olsen. He uses his eyes and a subtle fake to stop Wright in his tracks, and places the ball high and away from Sherman, where only Olsen can catch it. That’s sublime quarterbacking.
WORST THROW OF THE WEEK
This decision by Palmer is inexplicable. His receiver is running a post route against man coverage with a safety in the deep middle. Palmer stares down the throw the whole way, never bothering to look off safety Mike Mitchell, who easily picks off the pass to all but clinch the game.