Pelissero: Ryan Fitzpatrick can take Jets on long flight
The New York Jets are 4-1 entering Sunday’s showdown against the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots. The Jets are No. 1 in total defense, scoring defense and rushing offense.
And no matter what happens Sunday against Tom Brady and company in Foxborough, Mass., there’s reason to think the Jets’ formula for success is sustainable, even with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback for his sixth NFL team and fourth in four years.
Fitzpatrick, 32, isn’t very mobile. He’s weak in the deep passing game. He can get impulsive and try to do too much when he’s asked to go win a game, exposing his physical shortcomings. But all the talent around him can elevate a tough, smart, experienced quarterback who knows what he can and can’t do.
“There’s more positives right now than negatives,” an NFL personnel executive who has studied the Jets told Paste BN Sports, speaking on condition of anonymity for competitive reasons.
“Because (Fitzpatrick) does have enough talent to win games, but he can’t do it by himself. If you’re down two scores and he’s got to throw it 35 times, you’re going to lose eight out of 10 times. He’s got to maintain the game, don’t throw picks, and then they’ll run the football so it protects him.”
Explained another NFL personnel man: “It’s all about the D (and) running game” with the Jets, whose first-year coach, Todd Bowles, is a brilliant defensive mind and has more talent to work with than he did as coordinator with the Arizona Cardinals.
The D-line features three big, powerful players (Muhummad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams) who can play at the point but also are quick enough to rush the passer and disrupt in the backfield. The linebackers aren’t special, but they’re instinctive and will thump you. It’s tough to run on the Jets, and the cover skills of all-pro cornerback Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie free up options with Bowles’ blitz packages.
The offense goes through stud halfback Chris Ivory, setting up the play-action pass game. Jets general manager Mike Maccagnan upgraded two wide receiver spots by trading on the cheap for Brandon Marshall, who remains a solid No. 1 threat at 31, bumping Eric Decker to a more suitable No. 2 role. The O-line isn’t particularly talented, but it is playing together.
The Jets can ask Fitzpatrick to be a caretaker, not a difference-maker.
“He commands the offense pretty good,” Bowles said this week. “Some throws we want to have back, but for the most part he’s done a good job.”
The Jets’ lone loss came at home Sept. 27 against the Philadelphia Eagles, who picked off three of Fitzpatrick’s 58 passes on a day Ivory and Decker sat out with injuries. In the Jets’ four wins, Fitzpatrick has averaged 28 passes, with seven touchdowns and four interceptions. He has taken just two sacks.
Maccagnan, the former Houston Texans college scouting director, sent a conditional late-round pick to his old team in March for Fitzpatrick, who was supposed to be a backup before turnover machine Geno Smith’s jaw was broken by a teammate in a locker room altercation Aug. 11.
Fitzpatrick knows the offense from his days with coordinator Chan Gailey on the Buffalo Bills. He also knows himself. If the Jets stay relatively healthy, that might be good enough to end a four-year playoff drought, even if ending the Patriots’ reign in the AFC East might be asking a lot this year.
“I’m not saying they’re going to go 12-4,” the first executive said. “But they’re going to win probably more than they lose, if they play that style.”
End of the line?
Bills wide receiver Percy Harvin’s latest “hip injury” isn’t the only reason to doubt he’s in the NFL beyond this season.
Harvin, 27, is a special weapon when he’s healthy and dialed in. But he requires way too much maintenance, physically and otherwise, to make him worth the trouble if he continues to be so reliably unreliable. Getting him to Sundays has always been a battle.
He sparred verbally with coaches on the Minnesota Vikings and physically with teammates on the Seattle Seahawks before both teams traded him away. Now his fourth NFL team is in London, and Bills coach Rex Ryan is saying he doesn’t know where Harvin is, specifically denying the absence is injury-related (perhaps in hopes of recouping part of the $5.9 million Harvin is guaranteed for 2015).
It’s reminiscent of Harvin’s disappearance during camp with the Vikings in 2010 after the death of his grandmother. And remember, Seahawks doctors cleared Harvin to play in 2013 before he had hip surgery on his own and missed much of the season.
Even relying on Harvin as a third or fourth option is a gamble, because his touches have to be manufactured. He can’t just be plugged into a spot if somebody goes down like most NFL backups. And if Harvin’s hurt, the schemes designed to exploit his rare skill set must be scrapped.
Given the tension that boiled over between Harvin and Seattle’s other receivers, is it any surprise his supposed retirement thoughts arose a week after Sammy Watkins went public with his desire for more touches and proclaimed himself the Bills’ No. 1 receiver?
That’s not dismissing whatever physical issues Harvin is dealing with. It’s just the reality that with Harvin a team is rarely dealing with one issue at a time.
Inside runs
— Don’t look for Gus Bradley to be the latest coach fired after returning from London. This is Bradley’s third season with the Jacksonville Jaguars but the first in which the organization is really keeping score. The Jags are 1-5 entering Sunday’s game against the Bills at Wembley Stadium, and no coach is safe after, say, consecutive 3-13 seasons. Ownership knew it would take time to turn things around, though. The key is showing growth from here.
— New Dallas Cowboys starting quarterback Matt Cassel in two sentences: “He’s got a little leadership to him,” a high-ranking scout for another team said. “But he’ll turn it over.” The Cowboys hope the former can give them life before the latter strikes, beginning Sunday at the New York Giants. Given everything the Cowboys have gone through with Tony Romo and Dez Bryant out, it’s fairly amazing they’d lead the NFC East with a win and an Eagles loss at the Carolina Panthers.
— Context to Cleveland Browns tight end Gary Barnidge’s breakout at 30: He would’ve been stuck behind Greg Olsen if he’d stayed in Carolina in 2013. He got $650,000 in guarantees on a three-year deal with the Browns — and then watched Jordan Cameron break out instead. It’s an opportunity league, and Barnidge is finally getting his, with 23 catches for 358 yards and five touchdowns in his last four games. No extension talks yet.
— Great example of the challenge the Oakland Raiders have to overcome each week: Trailing the Denver Broncos 9-7 in the fourth quarter Oct. 11, quarterback Derek Carr’s pivotal interception came on a crossing route featuring practice squad holdover Seth Roberts and rookie Amari Cooper, with rookie Clive Walford in the area. Carr had more time than he thought, and Roberts looked late. It’s a growth process for a young team.
— The top five defenses in yards allowed are the Jets, Broncos, Tennessee Titans, Seahawks and … Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Those numbers are deceiving in part because turnovers have given opponents short fields and defensive scores. But Lovie Smith puts a premium on takeaways, and the Bucs come out of the bye vs. the Washington Redskins, who have turned it over 11 times.
— Peyton Manning leads the NFL with 10 interceptions, seven of them in his last three games. The only other quarterbacks with seven interceptions in a three-game stretch this season: Andrew Luck and Ryan Tannehill.
Tom’s Top 10
(Last week’s ranking in parentheses)
1. Green Bay Packers (1): Bye is timed right with injuries piling up, namely at skill spots.
2. New England Patriots (2): Suspect run defense is biggest concern against the Jets.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (3): Tough to boo Andy Dalton when he’s in MVP conversation.
4. Denver Broncos (4): Offense needs to get right with Packers, Colts on tap after bye.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (6): Visit to Kansas City is last road game until Nov. 29 at Seattle.
6. Carolina Panthers (NR): They’ve won 10 of 11 games dating to last December’s surge.
7. Minnesota Vikings (9): Just 2-8 on the road under Mike Zimmer as they head to Detroit.
8. New York Jets (10): After Patriots, next game vs. 2014 playoff team is Dec. 19 at Dallas.
9. Arizona Cardinals (8): They haven’t lost two in a row with Carson Palmer at QB in two years.
10. Atlanta Falcons (7): Rookie quarterbacks await the next two weeks against Titans, Bucs.
Dropped out: Seattle Seahawks (5).
Note: Does not factor in the results of Thursday night’s game.
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Follow Tom Pelissero on Twitter @TomPelissero
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