Pelissero: Breaking down the coaching carousel as Black Monday approaches
Chip Kelly’s ouster in Philadelphia makes three openings for head coaches, and the NFL season still isn’t over. The number could end up as high as 10, though with several situations undecided, the guess here is it ends up right around the seven openings of the past two years.
Here are a dozen questions for Black Monday and beyond:
Where does Chip Kelly go?
If he stays in the NFL, the most obvious landing spot is Tennessee. The Titans have the quarterback, Marcus Mariota, for whom Kelly tried to trade up in this year’s draft to run his up-tempo offense. But the team surely will have questions about how much power Kelly wants, as well as his relationships with players and colleagues. Any candidate will have questions about the Titans, too: Is the family of late owner Bud Adams going to sell? Will controlling owner Amy Adams Strunk remain in charge? When will the team hire a permanent president and CEO? Is GM Ruston Webster keeping his job? In terms of organizational stability, this one ranks near the bottom of the list. The Browns, who made a run at Kelly in 2013, aren’t much better. Would the 49ers fire Jim Tomsula after one season and see if Kelly can unleash deposed QB Colin Kaepernick’s talents? Kelly’s availability is so fresh even some interested teams may not have all the answers yet.
Does Sean Payton leave New Orleans?
He’ll have his usual year-end meeting with GM Mickey Loomis on Monday, and no scenario can be ruled out. Status quo? Exploration of a “trade” both sides would have to approve? Release from a contract that runs through 2017 and makes Peyton one of the NFL’s highest-paid coaches? Loomis stepping aside to focus on his duties with the NBA’s New Orleans Pelicans, handing the GM reins to Payton? All that seems certain is if Peyton becomes available, he’d have multiple suitors.
Who will be the hottest assistant coaches?
The same names come up in conversations with people around the league. They include: OCs Adam Gase (Bears), Hue Jackson (Bengals), Josh McDaniels (Patriots) and Mike Shula (Panthers); DCs Teryl Austin (Lions) and Sean McDermott (Panthers); and assistant head coaches Anthony Lynn (Bills) and Doug Marrone (Jaguars). But every team has its own criteria, and some of those candidates (see: McDaniels) are expected to be highly selective.
Will Chuck Pagano be a head coach in 2016?
His track record in Indianapolis and a dearth of proven candidates strongly suggest yes. He says he’s still fighting to remain the Colts’ coach, but his contract is set to expire Sunday night, allowing him a jump start on exploring the market. If the Titans don’t get Kelly, it’d make a lot of sense to look at the coach who has ruled the AFC South in recent years.
What’s the best job available?
Some would say the Colts, given the presence of QB Andrew Luck. But look no further than the handling of Pagano’s status to understand the preoccupations that exist about working for ever-involved owner Jim Irsay. Plus, the roster needs help, and it’s unclear if Irsay intends to stand by GM Ryan Grigson, who’s under contract through 2016. A better bet is a stable, patient organization like the Giants, who also have a QB in place. Final decisions on coach Tom Coughlin, who may decide he’s done as his 70th birthday approaches, and GM Jerry Reese aren’t expected to be made until the season is over. OC Ben McAdoo could be an in-house candidate.
Will any college coaches make the leap?
The No. 1 candidate is Stanford’s David Shaw, but the belief is he’s not leaving unless the perfect opportunity arises – perhaps with a team like the Giants. UCLA’s Jim Mora is another frequently mentioned name, but it seems unlikely he’ll get a third chance, at least this year. It’s a long shot Jim Harbaugh would leave Michigan after one year. Beyond that, any possibilities would qualify as outside the box – Arkansas’ Bret Bielema, Northwestern’s Pat Fitzgerald and Arizona State’s Todd Graham among them.
Who ends up in Miami?
The Dolphins want a coach with some fire after the one-note Joe Philbin era. They also need to develop young QB Ryan Tannehill. One logical fit: Hue Jackson, whose offensive creativity and passion are well-known. But owner Stephen Ross might aim for a bigger splash. The structure Ross has espoused, with the personnel boss and head coach both reporting directly to him, may turn off some candidates. Executive vice president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum is leading the coaching search, which likely insulates him from any changes. But nothing can be considered off the table if the Dolphins can land the coach they want.
Who replaces Kelly in Philadelphia?
After cutting bait on an offensive-minded NFL outsider, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Eagles go the opposite direction with a defensive coach they know well: Sean McDermott, who grew up in their organization under Andy Reid and Jim Johnson. Interim coach Pat Shurmur, who also comes from Reid’s coaching tree, could be a candidate, too. Another candidate with Pennsylvania roots is Teryl Austin, who – like Tom Donahoe, the Eagles’ recently promoted senior director of player personnel – hails from the Pittsburgh suburbs.
Who’s trying to get back in?
Mike Holmgren, who has taken two teams to the Super Bowl, would be all-in on a chance to coach his hometown 49ers. Former Lions coach Jim Schwartz could get another shot, and Mike Smith’s 66-46 record in seven seasons with the Falcons figures to at least get him some looks.
Will the Lions fire Jim Caldwell?
The decision will be up to the Lions’ next GM, new team president Rod Wood reiterated this week. But the GM doesn’t figure to be in place for at least a week or two, meaning Caldwell may still be on the job in mid-January without knowing his fate. Not ideal.
How many other GM jobs turn over?
Probably more than last year, when there were three (and a few other organizations restructured). The Titans and Browns seem to be leaning that direction. The Colts and Giants’ situations are uncertain. And there’s persistent speculation in league circles that structural changes could be coming for the Saints and perhaps the Texans. Ten names that figure to come up for openings: Chris Ballard (Chiefs), Morocco Brown (Browns), Nick Caserio (Patriots), Eric DeCosta (Ravens), Omar Khan (Steelers), Trent Kirchner (Seahawks), Terry McDonough (Cardinals), George Paton (Vikings), Chris Polian (Jaguars) and Eliot Wolf (Packers).
Is there another surprise coming?
A public endorsement from Bills ownership Wednesday removed coach Rex Ryan from the mix. The Browns firing Mike Pettine or GM Ray Farmer wouldn’t qualify, given Pettine’s comments about a lack of unity and that owner Jimmy Haslam has been seeking opinions about how to proceed. Perhaps the most complicated situation is in San Diego, where Mike McCoy has been included in planning sessions for next year. His third season was marred by injuries and any coaching search would have to work against a backdrop of uncertainty about where the team will train and play in 2016.
Tom’s Top 10
(Last week’s ranking in parentheses)
1. Carolina Panthers (1): Loss at Atlanta doesn’t outweigh body of work. But it did show some holes.
2. Arizona Cardinals (2): Rout of Packers upped differential to league-high 206 points.
3. New England Patriots (3): Depletion of offensive line may be approaching critical mass.
4. Denver Broncos (7): Too late for QB controversy now: This is Brock Osweiler’s team.
5. Seattle Seahawks (4): Bruising Rams have their number, but they’re tough in January.
6. Cincinnati Bengals (6): Four losses in past seven games have put much-needed bye in doubt.
7. Kansas City Chiefs (8): With eight INTs, Marcus Peters looks like defensive rookie of the year.
8. New York Jets (10): Fifth-round pick for WR Brandon Marshall and a seventh might be trade of the year.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (5): Need win and Jets loss Sunday to get shot at first playoff win since 2010 season.
10. Green Bay Packers (9): Has any 10-win team had more embarrassing showings?
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