Ranking NFL's divisional worst-to-first contenders
Optimism is never in short supply throughout the NFL offseason, even for the league's most moribund franchises.
In a parity-driven league, a sudden rise never seems far off. The Washington Redskins were last season's lone worst-to-first story, but they proved it's possible to shed the standards of the previous year.
We took a look at every division's last-place finisher and ranked them by their chances to jump to the top:
1. Dallas Cowboys - NFC East
Team outlook: When QB Tony Romo last played a full season in 2014, the Cowboys went 12-4 and had one of the league's most balanced attacks. A healthy Romo could help Dallas return to form, or at least wipe out memories of last year's disastrous 4-12 campaign.
First-round RB Ezekiel Elliott will work behind one of the league's stoutest offensive lines, and WR Dez Bryant is being pushed after a disappointing year. The defense, however, received little help in the offseason despite needing plenty of it. The pass rush looks especially susceptible, with DEs DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory out for the first four games.
Division outlook: Despite all the troubles in 2015, the Cowboys weren't out of the NFC East race until Week 15 last year. The Redskins were one of last season's most mystifying success stories and could be hard-pressed to repeat this year. The New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles both appear to be teams in transition that could experience growing pains.
Dallas was the victim of several bad breaks last year, including an irregular -22 turnover differential. The Cowboys will need more than luck, but they have the parts to pull off the same feat as the rival Redskins did last season.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - NFC South
Team outlook: Lovie Smith's ouster for Dirk Koetter might seem like the mark of a franchise in panic mode. But with expectations growing in Tampa Bay, patience is at a premium.
QB Jameis Winston has improved his conditioning after a rookie of the year campaign, and RB Doug Martin was retained after a resurgent season. Investments at CB (first-round pick Vernon Hargreaves) and DE (free agent Robert Ayears and second-round pick Noah Spence) should tighten up the pass defense, though more work might remain.
Division outlook: The NFC South has been one of the friendliest arenas for worst-to-first teams, playing host to several turnaround stories in the mid-2000s. But the Carolina Panthers have won the division the last three years and don't appear to be giving up any ground. Leapfrogging the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers appears reasonable, but making it to the top might be too much for Tampa Bay.
3. Miami Dolphins - AFC East
Team outlook: Miami moved swiftly this offseason to secure Adam Gase, and the organization wasn't shy in trumpeting its new hire. Immediate signs of progress will be expected, as the Dolphins are just a year removed from being labeled a team on the rise. Gase will have to find a way to make the team's disparate pieces to coalesce, especially with DT Ndamukong Suh on the defense. But the first season will likely be judged by QB Ryan Tannehill's development, which has been slow through four seasons.
Division outlook: Few AFC East teams had reason to celebrate this offseason. Tom Brady's four-game suspension punctuated a mostly disappointing spring for the New England Patriots. The New York Jets weren't far behind with their own QB controversy, as Ryan Fitzpatrick remains unsigned. And Rex Ryan's Buffalo Bills look as boisterous as ever, but for many of the wrong reasons.
Even with Brady's suspension, the Patriots don't appear any closer to losing their seven-year grip on the division. Gase could re-energize the franchise, but Miami should be satisfied with building something for the future.
4. Chicago Bears - NFC North
Team outlook: John Fox's debut season in Chicago featured a number of snags, but there were still reasons for optimism. DC Vic Fangio strung together a serviceable defense despite personnel ill-fitted for a transition to a 3-4. LB Danny Trevathan's arrival should solidify the unit, and NT Eddie Goldman looks like the strong presence required up front. QB Jay Cutler might miss Gase's influence after the pair's lone season together, but new OC Dowell Loggains built trust as QB coach last season. WR Kevin White should pair nicely with Alshon Jeffery after missing his rookie seasson.
Division outlook: The Green Bay Packers were knocked from their perch after five years atop the NFC North, but now the division has a second contender in the Minnesota Vikings. Chicago won at Lambeau Field last Thanksgiving and lost its first meeting to Minnesota on a last-second field goal. Still, finishing ahead of the Detroit Lions must be the most realistic target.
5. San Diego Chargers - AFC West
Team outlook: The long-brewing problems in San Diego finally boiled over, leaving all of the team's shortcomings evident. Chief among them: QB Philip Rivers was sacked 40 times last season. He didn't receive many reinforcements beyond third-round C Max Tuerk, but WR Keenan Allen's return from kidney injury is a significant boost. NT Brandon Mebane and first-round DE Joey Bosa bolster the front seven, but losing S Eric Weddle leaves the defense at a net negative.
Division outlook: San Diego is staring a long way up in one of the league's most competitive divisions. The defending champion Denver Broncos have their share of questions, but the defense still looks primed to bail them out of close calls. The Kansas City Chiefs have been steady under Andy Reid, and even the once-hapless Oakland Raiders appear poised to make a significant push.
6. Tennessee Titans - AFC South
Team outlook: The retention of Mike Mularkey as coach was fitting for a Titans organization that has puzzled many with its moves. With QB Marcus Mariota, however, Tennessee has its most important piece in place. Trading for RB DeMarco Murray and drafting Derrick Henry as his support demonstrates a commitment to the ground game. Moving back from the No. 1 pick produced several draft picks who could pay off in the coming years.
Division outlook: Perhaps one of the Titans' biggest problems is the pace at which the rest of the AFC South is moving. Adding QB Brock Osweiler and RB Lamar Miller showed the Houston Texans weren't content to coast as division champs. The Jacksonville Jaguars, meanwhile, spent big on defensive veterans with an eye toward immediate results. And though the Indianapolis Colts mostly stood pat, QB Andrew Luck brings hope with his return.
7. San Francisco 49ers - NFC West
Team outlook: San Francisco appears ready to move again one year after reaching a stasis under Jim Tomsula. New coach Chip Kelly might have even more work than first expected with QB Colin Kaepernick after an uneasy offseason. But the future of the 49ers depends on more than just the outlook behind center. Resources are depleted at WR and along the offensive line, and LB NaVorro Bowman and S Antoine Bethea are two of the lone reliable starters on defense.
Division outlook: Once perennial contenders in the NFC West, the 49ers now find themselves well behind the pack. The Arizona Cardinals have overtaken the 49ers as the Seattle Seahawks' primary competition for the division. And the freshly moved Los Angeles Rams are trying to jump-start a languishing offense with No. 1 pick Jared Goff arriving at QB.
8. Cleveland Browns - AFC North
Team outlook: Resets are almost a way of life in Cleveland. But Hue Jackson might be the best coaching option the organization has seen in sometime. The new regime is almost starting at zero following an offseason exodus of Browns starters from an already thin roster. Robert Griffin III is the presumptive starter despite far-reaching concerns about fundamentals, His receiving corps consists mostly of rookies, and the defense is in flux.
Division outlook: The Browns have finished fourth in the AFC North for the past five seasons and look as entrenched as ever in that spot. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals are expected to clash for the top spot in the division, but the Baltimore Ravens might also be in contention if they have better luck on the injury front. What is clear: A worst-to-first for Cleveland would be among the NFL's most surprising developments for 2016.
Follow Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz on Twitter @MikeMSchwartz.