NFL Week 16 overreactions: Are Seahawks in trouble?
With only one week left and two spots remaining in the playoff field, much of the NFL's regular season has already been decided. But the penultimate week of action still produced plenty of results that should get a closer inspection.
Here are five overreactions we're pushing back on in Week 16:
Are the Seahawks in trouble?
The Seattle Seahawks have lost three of their last five games, the latest in Saturday’s 34-31 loss against the 6-8-1 Arizona Cardinals.
And all of a sudden, the Seahawks don’t look like the legitimate Super Bowl contender that beat the New England Patriots in Week 10.
As the past month has shown, Seattle has some flaws.
Its running game hasn’t been consistent since Marshawn Lynch retired. The offensive line hasn’t opened enough running lanes. It also hasn’t given quarterback Russell Wilson the protection he normally gets. Seattle is tied for 22nd in the league in rushing yards (100.3 per game), and is tied for 24th in sacks allowed with 40.
But more than anything, injuries are taking their toll.
It has been clear in the two weeks since star safety Earl Thomas broke his leg that the defense hasn’t been the same. Second-year receiver Tyler Lockett, a weapon who has the potential to score on any given play, suffered a season-ending leg injury against the Cardinals. And that doesn’t even factor in the loss of rookie running back C.J. Prosise, who was emerging as a game-changing threat before he sustained a shoulder injury in Week 11.
Because of their experience, the Seahawks have the potential to go on a run once the postseason starts.
There’s plenty of evidence over the last month, however, that injuries may prevent that from happening.
The Cowboys should sit everyone
Dallas clinched the NFC East, a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs Thursday night when the New York Giants tripped against the Philadelphia Eagles, 24-19.
So for the rest of the regular season, the Cowboys have essentially nothing at stake.
Naturally, the gut reaction is to empty the bench and sit all of the team’s starters to avoid the risk of injury.
That would be a mistake, however, and Jason Garrett made the right call on Monday when he restated that he would play his starters.
Sure, the Cowboys need to be smart about how they deploy their star rookies in quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott. Consider this: Since the summer of 2015, both players have been on a non-stop football grind. They played their final seasons in college, declared for the draft, embarked on the pre-NFL scouting combine slog, launched right into rookie minicamp and the NFL offseason program, and then began the toil of the regular season.
That’s why the so-called rookie wall is real.
Elliott has an NFL-high 341 touches. Prescott is a dual threat QB who absorbs his fair share of contact. High-mileage veterans like tight end Jason Witten also could use a break.
Here’s the problem, however, with sitting starters for an extended period of time: It depletes the mental proficiency needed to win in the playoffs. It saps physical conditioning. Dallas wants its players to be playing their best football of the year in January. iIf Garrett changes his mind opts to rest his starters, it means they would go a month in between meaningful games. That’s too long.
And don’t forget. The last time the Cowboys were in this position they rested their starters and lost to the Giants in the first playoff game. That surely weighs on their minds.
Dallas shouldn’t overwork players. It’s about finding a balance.
The best option is to keep the engaged in weekly game planning, play them, and remove them later in the games. Because once the Cowboys host their divisional round playoff game, there won’t be time to shake off any rust.
The Raiders are doomed with Derek Carr sidelined
There’s never a good time to have a team’s budding star quarterback go down with a broken leg. But what happened to the Oakland Raiders on Saturday was downright cruel.
One week after helping Oakland secure its first trip to the playoffs since 2002, Carr suffered a broken fibula in a 33-25 victory against the Indianapolis Colts. The injury will require surgery and end his season.
So now Oakland turns to Matt McGloin, whom the team re-signed this offseason to a one-year, $2.5 million contract.
There’s no denying that the Raiders are a weaker team with McGloin under center. Carr had been posting an MVP-caliber campaign prior to his injury, throwing for 3,933 yards and 28 touchdowns against six interceptions on a 63.7% completion rate.
But there’s also no denying that the Raiders have a few pieces working in their favor.
They have one of the most imposing and dominating offensive lines in football. Behind that group, they have a capable rushing attack led by backs Latavius Murray, Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington. And in Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin, Oakland has a pass rush that can disrupt opposing offenses.
That alone should be enough to win one playoff game. An extended run is more daunting, but it’s too early to tell whether McGloin can keep the Raiders in contention.
Andy Reid’s trick play was bush league
The reaction to Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Dontari Poe throwing a TD pass was instant.
What exactly were coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Brad Childress thinking when they called a trick play, leaping touchdown toss by the 346-pound Poe with the Chiefs securely winning Sunday night’s game against the Denver Broncos, 27-10, with 1:55 left to play in the game?
Many thought it was in poor taste. And while it certainly wasn’t necessary, the Broncos didn’t take offense, so neither should you.
The curious thing is this: The play worked. It duped an aggressive and talented defense run by the very capable Wade Phillips.
Kansas City is preparing to go on a playoff run, where it looks like one of the top contenders in the AFC. It will need its best effort to challenge the Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Chiefs would’ve been better served saving Poe’s leaping TD pass for a tight contest in January rather than wasting it in garbage time of an already-decided regular-season game.
Tom Savage is the future in Houston
The Texans clinched the AFC South with a 12-10 victory against the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday night. It was their second-consecutive win with former backup quarterback Tom Savage taking the spotlight.
In one-and-a-half games, Savage has completed 63.1% of his passes for 436 yards, with no touchdowns and no interceptions.
Despite the positive momentum for the Texans, it’s too early to anoint Savage as the future.
Here’s all we can say with certainty: At this point, Savage is better at running coach Bill O’Brien’s offense than Brock Osweiler. That’s about it.
The sample size has been too small for the Texans to rush and make a significant financial commitment to Savage. That would be making the same error twice.
The Texans gave Osweiler a four-year, $72 million contract signed this offseason. All that, despite having never met Osweiler, and despite limited film to go off of.
The deal guarantees $37 million in the first two seasons. That means that Osweiler still has one offseason and the 2017 regular season to reclaim the starting job and prove that he was worth the contract. If he can’t do that, Houston will almost certainly cut its losses at the end of next season.
And until Savage shows that he can sustain success over an extended period, he, too, should be fighting for playing time.
Follow Lorenzo Reyes on Twitter @LorenzoGReyes.
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