NFL Week 14 overreactions: Patriots, Steelers locked in for AFC title game?
The NFL's playoff picture is starting to take shape, as the first two postseason berths were claimed on Sunday.
But with three weeks remaining and plenty still up for grabs, fans should consider a nearly full season's worth of results before jumping to conclusions based on Sunday's outcomes.
Here are four overreactions we're pushing back on:
The Patriots and Steelers are virtual locks for the AFC title game
Set to meet Sunday to break a tie atop the division, New England and Pittsburgh are the clear class of the AFC. Each team is experienced, has elite talent on both sides of the ball and is a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
But the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars have emerged as outside contenders. They may not have the name recognition that Pittsburgh and New England boast, but a 30-24 win over the Seattle Seahawks affirmed they can compete with some of the NFL’s best.
Even with injuries, the Seahawks remain a physical defensive squad with a dynamic and do-it-all MVP candidate in quarterback Russell Wilson.
Jacksonville, though, has a defense that leads the NFL in scoring (15.5 points a game), passing defense (174.2 yards per game game) and sacks (47), and ranks second in total defense (291.6). Led by rookie Leonard Fournette, the rushing offense also paces the league (149.9). The Jaguars also leads the NFL in turnover margin at +14.
Those are ingredients needed to win in January.
With quarterback Blake Bortles limiting his mistakes and keeping the offense moving, the Jaguars have won six of their last seven games.
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More: With AFC North clinched, Steelers turn sole focus to dethroning Patriots
Steelers can be counted on to mount more comebacks
Pittsburgh again needed a thrilling finish to win a game. For the third-consecutive week, the Steelers needed a game-winning field goal in the final minutes of the fourth quarter to seal a victory, this time a 39-38 triumph over the Ravens to clinch the AFC North.
The Steelers have won eight in a row and are holding on to the No. 1 seed in the AFC. With no major offensive injuries and young players stepping up on defense, this is as talented a team as they have had in some time.
But a reliance on late surges isn't sustainable, and the Patriots could expose the limitations of such an approach.
With eithers it offense or defense occasionally falling flat, Pittsburgh hasn’t posted very many complete games. Of all the division leaders in the NFL, only the Chiefs (+40) have a smaller margin of net points than the Steelers (+69).
Missed tackles and the offense's imbalance also continue to plague Pittsburgh.
Against teams like New England, such mistakes could be too much to overcome.
The Eagles can’t win a playoff game without Wentz
Philadelphia got its signature victory by beating the Rams 43-35. But MVP candidate and second-year quarterback Carson Wentz was lost to a season-ending torn anterior cruciate ligament.
The injury is devastating. With Wentz ascending, the Eagles clinched the NFC East, were poised to claim the conference’s No. 1 seed and looked like one of best teams in the NFL. Philadelphia is still guaranteed no worse than the No. 4 seed and at least one home playoff game, but the team could spiral without its offensive leader.
Now, it will be up to backup Nick Foles to keep Philly afloat.
Foles completed six of 10 passes for 42 yards on Sunday. The Eagles gained only 79 yards in the three series he led them, but he iced the game with a huge third-and-8 throw to receiver Nelson Agholor for 9 yards.
Philadelphia’s defense, which ranks sixth in scoring (19.2 points a game) and has forced 24 turnovers (tied for third), will be asked to carry the team along with the second-ranked running game.
Game plans should be catered around Foles’ strengths, with an emphasis on avoiding turnovers and managing the game.
Time for Teddy in Minnesota?
The Vikings fell 31-24 in a crucial road game against the Panthers, ending their eight-game winning streak and dropping them to 10-3. Quarterback Case Keenum had three turnovers, including two interceptions, and completed 27 of his 44 attempts for 280 yards and two touchdowns.
The performance was uneven, but it’s not quite time to hand the team to Teddy Bridgewater, who still hasn’t played since suffering a significant knee injury before the 2016 season. Keenum had his share of mistakes, but he wasn’t the primary reason Minnesota stumbled.
The Panthers sacked Keenum six times and hit him another seven. He simply was not comfortable in the pocket all game long.
Despite trailing at halftime by only one point, Minnesota abandoned the running game. The Vikings averaged 4.8 yards per rush but ran the ball only 21 times. The offense became one-dimensional. His second interception, which came in the fourth quarter, was not his fault.
Keenum certainly had his hand in the Vikings' loss. But he also engineered two fourth-quarter scoring drives to tie the game and made enough plays to give Minnesota a chance.
Follow Lorenzo Reyes on Twitter @LorenzoGReyes.
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