NFL gambling tips: As Bears, Seahawks and Panthers struggle on offense, bettors converge on unders
The object in establishing a point spread and over-under total is to seek a balanced response from the bettors, the rationale being that the bookmaker will collect from the losing side and the 10 percent in juice from each wager.
This week’s NFL action, particularly on totals, has exposed the books to some serious liability as bettors are loading up on sides and shifting the figures dramatically in some cases.
Caesars Sportsbook, for instance, reports that after it established the over-under for the 49ers-Bears game at 43.5 points, a groundswell of bettors pounced so abundantly on the under that it has dipped all the way to 39.5.
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That makes the meeting between two struggling offenses only the second total of the season to go off at less than 40 points at Caesars. The other, by the way, was the Oct. 10 Patriots-Texans game that finished over, with 47 points.
In all, reports Caesars, 11 of 14 games this weekend have 90 percent of total dollars wagered on one side of the action – a lopsided pickle, for sure, if the bettors sweep the weekend.
Of course, the number is the number for a reason – actually a multitude of factors that the bookmakers process through their computers while considering injury reports, weather and their own power rankings.
With that in play, we offer the NFL version of “Hot Tix and Picks,” starting with the hottest tickets identified through a survey of mobile sportsbooks.
Jacksonville Jaguars-Seattle Seahawks under 44
A rookie quarterback facing Seattle’s vaunted 12th man. On the other side, a last-place 2-5 team quarterbacked by Geno Smith.
The situation is tantalizing, and this is the most popular ticket at Tipico Sportsbook. To the question of whether Pete Carroll has lost something, the answer is simple: only Russell Wilson and running back Chris Carson.
Seattle’s defense was formidable Monday night against the Saints, displaying its capability to shut down top pick Trevor Lawrence, as well.
Detroit Lions +3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Yes, the Lions are winless, but the masses are backing the idea that getting more than a field goal at home against a bad team is a prime opportunity to strike.
It’s intriguing that earlier in the week, Las Vegas’ Westgate Superbook had the most money, in order, on the Lions and Eagles in conflicting bets. BetMGM reports significant sharps money on Philadelphia, as well.
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Dallas Cowboys +3 at Minnesota Vikings
This must be chalked up to the widespread popularity of America’s Team and its 5-1 start. Most tickets at BetMGM are on Dallas despite the weeklong uncertainty to quarterback Dak Prescott’s ability to start after suffering a calf injury.
Obviously, Prescott’s questionable availability – the Cowboys’ backup is Cooper Rush – has influenced the line moving from 1.5 at Tipico.
Carolina Panthers-Atlanta Falcons under 47
At Caesars Sportsbook, 99% of the money is on this under.
“The Panthers’ offense has fallen off a cliff after (running back) Christian McCaffrey got hurt,” Craid Mucklow, vice president of trading, told Paste BN Sports+. “(Quarterback Sam) Darnold hasn’t looked nearly the same. … It’s tough to back them with how they look now (and) the Falcons have been putting up points against bad teams, but the Panthers will be the best defense they’ve faced in a while.”
Buffalo Bills -14 vs. Miami Dolphins
With new future-book MVP favorite Josh Allen guiding the offense of the AFC Super Bowl favorite against the badly fading Dolphins, this ranks as a rare spot to embrace double-digit favored status in the eyes of BetMGM customers.
Not only has Miami lost six straight, but it has also suffered demoralizing late defeats in back-to-back weeks. Now assigned to the road? The white flag of surrender might be an early Buffalo touchdown away.
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And here’s the top picks:
Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 at New York Jets
Primary-recency syndrome is a powerful drug for bettors, so obviously the Bengals’ dominant showing over the Baltimore Ravens and the Jets’ injury loss of No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson at quarterback last week is moving this needle.
The Jets (1-5) are starting former practice-squad quarterback Mike White and are averaging less than two touchdowns per game, which moved one Nevada bettor to wager $66,000 on the under in this game, with Tipico offering a 43 total.
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
While BetMGM has taken its third-most action from the public on the Titans, who’ve looked so good in routing the Kansas City Chiefs and edging the Buffalo Bills in consecutive weeks, the sharp bettors are siding with the host Colts at both BetMGM and Westgate.
Indianapolis has found its groove with quarterback Carson Wentz, winning three of four, with the loss being that blown lead at Baltimore Oct. 11. This game is parlay material to the over. The total has moved 1.5 points to 50.5 at Tipico, and Caesars’ Mucklow said, “We’ve barely taken a bet on the under.”
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New England Patriots-Los Angeles Chargers over-49
The sharp money is also on the Patriots to cover, as the spread has moved from Chargers -5.5 to -4 at Tipico.
It’s a fascinating clash, as Bill Belichick, mastermind of three Patriots’ playoff victories over the Chargers since the 2006 season, returns to SoFi Stadium with rookie quarterback Mac Jones after blistering the Chargers here last year, 45-0.
Can new Coach Brandon Staley and an improved Chargers’ offense gain revenge? Led by a $66,000 over bet at Caesars, that book reports 98 percent of the dollars wagered on this total are on the over. As the uncertainty over the spread indicates, expect a close game.
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Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 at Detroit Lions
It’s the sharps against the public in this one, and the wise guys are riding with Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts traveling to Ford Field to re-emphasize how bad the Lions are.
Beware of the thinking, “They have to win one … .” Remember, the 2008 Lions finished 0-16.
Chicago Bears +3.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
This ticket is generating serious backing at Tipico, with the crowd assessing that home-field advantage against a foundering offense with quarterback uncertainty is a worthy investment.
The nosediving total also reveals sharp money on the notion that Chicago’s defense is legit, especially when its opponent offers a huge breather at quarterback following last week’s walloping by Tom Brady.