Super stat? Dallas Cowboys stand alone in perfection against the point spread
The Dallas Cowboys’ point spread is typically overinflated by their popularity among bettors, making their standing now as the NFL’s only unbeaten team against the spread all the more astounding.
Following their Sunday night victory over the Minnesota Vikings without quarterback Dak Prescott, the Cowboys head into Week 9 with a 7-0 record against the point spread.
According to Tipico Sportsbook, Dallas (6-1) is a 9.5-point favorite Sunday against the visiting Denver Broncos (4-4), who will encounter a team boosted by the expected return of Prescott from his calf injury. The Cowboys are 3-0 at AT&T Stadium this season.
Denver traded its best defensive player, defensive end Von Miller, to the Los Angeles Rams earlier this week.
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According to Tipico Sportsbook, the Cowboys are now tied with the Arizona Cardinals as the No. 5 favorite to win the Super Bowl – a feat Dallas hasn’t accomplished since the 1995 season.
“They've gone from an NFL-worst 5-11 against the spread last year to the only team that’s perfect against the spread this year … that is the biggest 180 I could ever think of,” said Trey Wingo, the former ESPN host now working as Caesars Sportsbook’s Chief Trends Officer and Brand Ambassador. “Last year, they gave up the most points in franchise history and this year they’re one of the top teams in turnover differential.”
The defense has indeed dictated the Cowboys’ rise. They limited the Vikings to a pitiful 1-for-13 showing on third downs, restricting Minnesota to just 278 total yards.
Cornerback Trevon Diggs is leading the turnover crusade with seven interceptions (two returned for touchdowns), while veteran defensive end Randy Gregory has five sacks. In the past four games, Gregory has tallied 11 quarterback hits.
“Diggs has been unbelievable in the things he’s been able to do, and if there was an award for midseason assistant coach of the year, Dan Quinn would win it in a runaway,” Wingo said of the Cowboys defensive coordinator. “Randy Gregory has resurrected his career because of Dan Quinn.”
The marvel of the Cowboys’ defense is that it’s been accomplished without defensive end DeMarcus “Tank” Lawrence, who’s been sidelined all season by a broken foot. The Cowboys also parted with linebacker Jaylon Smith, the 34th pick of the 2016 draft.
In a division otherwise occupied by the pedestrian New York Giants, Washington Football Team and Philadelphia Eagles – that group is a combined 7-17 – the Cowboys are rightfully eyeing the bye that goes to the NFC team with the best regular-season record.
Following the Broncos game, Dallas will likely again be heavily favored when meeting the visiting Atlanta Falcons (Nov. 14) before venturing to the defending AFC-champion Kansas City Chiefs (Nov. 21).
For years, the Cowboys stood as the most popular NFL bet in Las Vegas, warping the point spread established by bookmakers well aware of where the betting traffic was headed.
In recent years, Las Vegas Superbook Race and Sportsbook Director Jay Kornegay said lines are now more influenced by the betting "sharps" who wager heavily on games.
"Anyone who wins/covers are popular," Kornegay said.
As the Cowboys have displayed tremendous teamwork – evidenced by Prescott’s warm embrace of backup quarterback Cooper Rush following Rush’s final-minute touchdown pass to Amari Cooper Sunday night – Wingo said the most volatile element of the Cowboys could be head coach Mike McCarthy.
McCarthy botched clock management in Week 2 only to narrowly escape with a victory against the Los Angeles Chargers thanks to a 56-yard field goal by Greg Zuerlein.
“Not to cast dispersions, but the Cowboys have been that team that makes you say, ‘OK, how are they going to mess it up?’ That’s sort of been their M.O.,” Wingo said. “But they’ve been great so far.”
And as they’ve said in Las Vegas for years: The good teams win. The great teams cover.