NFL MVP race: How do Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and other QBs stack up at midseason?
Like most prominent individual awards in the sports world – Heisman Trophy, NBA MVP, American/National League MVPs, Hart Memorial Trophy – it's become popular to track the prospective NFL Most Valuable Player from preseason through Week 18 ... well, this is the first time the race will extend to Week 18, but you get it.
The 2021 regular season has already served up seemingly legitimate candidates whom the football fates have taken off the board – injured Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry chief among them with Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson, who's never received an MVP vote, likely out of the picture, too, even as he returns from a surgically repaired finger this weekend.
Others who seemed likely to be front-runners – Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen, Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, the 2020 MVP – still have time to get into the thick of the race, Prescott and Rodgers already on the radar.
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But as the season crosses its midpoint going into Week 10, it seems an MVP short list has crystallized as this campaign continues taking shape. A poll of Paste BN Sports' NFL experts reveals the following players as the leaders for league MVP in 2021:
(Methodology: Five points awarded for first-place vote, three points for a second-place vote, and one point for third-place vote.)
4. Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (5 points)
His team has the NFL's best record (8-1) at the halfway point, and Murray has been the league's most accurate passer (72.7% completion rate) so far. However an ankle injury sidelined him in Week 9, and Arizona has really limited his runs – which is probably for the best. Murray and the Cardinals also have to prove they can avoid yet another second-half fade.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady (15 points)
He's obviously more interested in an eighth Super Bowl ring than a fourth regular-season MVP ... but who's to say he can't do both? Brady leads the league with 25 TD passes and is on pace to throw 53. TB12 also averages more than 331 yards through the air after eight games, which has him tracking toward the league's first 5,600-yard effort. The Bucs didn't lose following their bye in 2020. Pull that off again, and Brady will almost surely be collecting more hardware.
2. Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford (19 points, three first-place votes)
The NFL world was eager to see how Stafford would respond in a new situation after being liberated from his 12-year stay in Detroit. So far, pretty impressive results, he and L.A. coach Sean McVay establishing immediate chemistry. Stafford has played one more game than Brady and leads the NFL with 2,771 passing yards while also pacing the league with a 111.0 QB rating. His 23 TD passes have him on course for a personal best. Stafford got the best of Brady in Week 3 but might need to earn a split with Murray and get the Rams the NFC's first-round bye to take his case to the next level.
1. Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (21 points, four first-place votes)
Admittedly, he didn't bolster his résumé given Thursday night's loss at Miami to the woeful Dolphins. Yet still, is any premier quarterback in the league thriving amid more challenging circumstances? Jackson lost his top three running backs to season-ending injuries before Week 1 and only had All-Pro LT Ronnie Stanley for one game behind a reconfigured offensive line. Nevertheless, the Ravens (6-3) remain atop a highly competitive AFC North, and Jackson is the primary reason – largely becomes he's taken such an impressive step forward as a passer. He projects to be the first player in league history to pass for 4,000 yards while running for 1,000 – and his pace actually equates to more than 4,600 yards through the air and 1,200 on the ground. Keep that up, and he's a very good bet to be the MVP for the second time in three seasons.
Also receiving votes (one apiece): Rodgers, Rams WR Cooper Kupp, Pittsburgh Steelers OLB T.J. Watt
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Follow Paste BN Sports' Nate Davis on Twitter @ByNateDavis.