Which NFL teams will rise and which will fall in the second half of the season?
The NFL season has reached its midway point, and parity is running strong throughout the league.
Week 9 featured a series of surprising upsets, and the trend has already extended to this week, with the floundering Miami Dolphins topping the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night. Beyond the Arizona Cardinals, every team in the league has at least two losses, and all but six have already suffered six defeats.
Amid that uncertainty, however, some teams could be poised to separate from the pack, while others could stumble down the stretch.
With that in mind, we asked Paste BN Sports' NFL reporters, columnists and editors:
Which NFL teams will rise and which will fade in the second half of the season?
Their answers:
Jarrett Bell
Actually, the rise and fall scenarios are already in the mix for a handful of teams: Pittsburgh (5-3) and New England (5-4) are on the upswing, while Cincinnati (5-4) and Las Vegas (5-3) are headed in the other direction. The Bengals have lost two straight since smashing Baltimore, and losing to the Jets really should count as a double-loss. (OK, the Jets beat Tennessee, too, so their stock as an any-given-Sunday spoiler is rising.) The Raiders, meanwhile, are 2-3 since that 3-0 start and during the past few weeks have had all the turmoil of the Jon Gruden saga, the senseless and tragic Henry Ruggs incident and the Damon Arnette case this week to suck life out of the mission. On top of that, the Raiders have in recent years exhibited this pattern of starting fast before fading.
On the flip side, Mike Tomlin and Bill Belichick are also exhibiting a previously-known characteristic of building teams that improve as the season progresses. Remember when the Steelers (5-3) were sitting in last place in the AFC North at 1-3? Now, they’re riding a 4-game winning streak that is second-longest in the AFC (Tennessee, 5) while the Patriots (5-4) have a three-game win streak. Neither the Steelers or Patriots have dominated during their streaks, but they have demonstrated some resilience. You figured New England’s rookie quarterback, Mac Jones, would improve with experience. Done. He’s getting better by the week. And you figured Pittsburgh’s savvy defense would keep them in a lot of games. Done. As the Steelers offense makes progress with rookie running back Najee Harris in the flow, the balance (along with the veteran QB, Ben Roethlisberger) has to be encouraging. Count the Patriots' effort at the Chargers and Pittsburgh’s win at Cincinnati as the signature wins from the first half of the season that bode well for their chances over the course of the second half. And I’d be remiss without mentioning the Chiefs (4-4), who have won consecutive games for the first time all season. Don’t count out Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes just yet. There’s still much more football to play, much time for fortunes to rise and fall.–
Jori Epstein
The Bills have rushed for 120 yards in four of five wins. Their three losses, including the most recent 9-6 sputtering in Jacksonville, fall below their mark. So it doesn’t bode well for Buffalo that they’ll face the league’s top two run defenses, the Saints (73.9 rushing yards allowed per game) and the Bucs (78 rushing yards), during the next month. The Patriots, who await the Bills twice, have successfully held opponents below 110 yards by ground as well. The Bills aren’t going to miss the playoffs as they hit their ground game hits literal and figurative road bumps. But quarterback Josh Allen, as he showed last week, will struggle to drive the ball as effectively as defenses turn Buffalo one-dimensional. The Bills won’t fall far enough to miss the playoffs. But the Patriots will continue their steady improvement on the road to two December divisional matchups with Buffalo. Count on a Dec. 26 Patriots win over the Bills to remind us of Bill Belichick’s elite game planning – and that Buffalo will need to fight through Week 18 to secure its division title.
Mike Freeman
The one that will rise is one that so many people loved to hate, thought once Tom Brady left they’d no longer need to hate because they were going to lose, but now might want to warm up their hate again. The Patriots are 5-4 and have won three consecutive games. They’re getting good play from rookie thrower Mac Jones and the defense is playing outstanding.
The Patriots might pass the Bills on their way up as the Bills stumble backwards. I’m not wholly convinced the Bills will slip because they have so much talent but that Jaguars loss was staggering because they’re the worst team in football. I’m not so sure this was a freakish loss.
Mike Jones
I’m going to go with two teams from the AFC. My faders are the Raiders, and my risers are the Patriots.
The Raiders got off to a good start, winning three straight, but then came back-to-back losses, two more wins and a loss at the Giants, which is a team that Las Vegas really should beat. There's been a good bit of adversity swirling around this team, and you wonder what kind of toll that's going to eventually take on players. If they can win at home against Kansas City this weekend, that's big, and there are some winnable games in the second half of the season, but again, with all that's been going on between coach departure, talented prospects getting released after off-field incidents, you just wonder if interim coach Rich Bisaccia can get this unit to weather the storm and contend for a playoff spot or if things will eventually crumble.
The Patriots, on the other hand, started slow with a 1-3 record and now have won four of their last five, and three straight. Mac Jones has been the best rookie quarterback this season, and he should improve in his comfort in the system. Two meetings with the Bills and one with the Titans await in the second half of the season, but things do shape up pretty favorably for New England as Bill Belichick and his crew aim to return to the playoffs after last year's absence.
Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz
Things set up very well on the back half of the season for a Patriots team already riding a three-game win streak. Matchups in the closing stretch against the Dolphins, Jaguars and Colts look highly favorable for New England, and the roughest remaining contests might be against the Titans, who still have to demonstrate a viable offensive formula with Derrick Henry sidelined, and two showdowns with the Bills, whose offense is sending off serious warning signs. If the defense can maintain its top form of recent weeks, a return to the postseason field is easily within reach.
The Bengals, on the other hand, might be on a slide that is just beginning. Take a look at Cincinnati's opponents for the rest of the season: the Raiders, Steelers, Chargers, 49ers, Broncos, Ravens, Chiefs and Browns. Are they any surefire wins in there? It's difficult to have faith in a team that allowed 75 points combined in the last two weeks to the Jets and Browns.
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