Tom Brady, Josh Allen neck and neck in NFL MVP odds halfway through 2021 season
They are separated by 19 years of age, but there’s only one bad game's margin between the two favorites to win the NFL MVP as the season moves into its second half.
Josh Allen, 25, and Tom Brady, 44, were in a virtual dead heat as co-favorites at Tipicio Sportsbook until Sunday, when Brady followed Allen's dumpster fire of an outing one week earlier by throwing two first-quarter interceptions in a stunning 29-19 road loss to the Washington Football Team.
Allen, meanwhile, responded to his loss at Jacksonville by shredding the New York Jets Sunday for 366 yards and two touchdowns.
Tipico's refreshed odds have Allen as the +230 favorite to win MVP, with Brady the second choice at +450.
Each has paced their respective teams to a division lead while piling up tremendous passing numbers. Brady could be on his way to a 5,000-yard campaign with 2,870 yards, 27 touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 106.1 passer rating at an age nearly all quarterbacks in history have long been retired.
Coming off his record seventh Super Bowl title, Brady possesses an extra sentimental affinity for his accomplishments that may ultimately carry him to his fourth MVP trophy.
“I’m sure there’s some voters who’ll give him extra points for his age and what he’s done in the past,” BetMGM’s Vice President of Trading Jeff Stoneback said. “If all things are equal between Brady and any quarterback, I’m sure they’ll give Brady the nod, even if it’s subconsciously.”
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Allen has positioned his Bills (6-3) atop the AFC East and has 2,602 yards, 19 touchdowns and six interceptions, while rushing for 322 yards and three touchdowns.
Tipico spokesman Sunny Gupta noted eight of the past 10 MVPs have come from a top-seeded conference team. Brady’s Buccaneers (+280) are favored to win the NFC at the midway point.
“Even at (6-3), the Bills are the favorites (to win the) AFC (+240) due to an easy remaining schedule and one of the best offenses in the NFL,” Gupta said in reference to Bills talent including receivers Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders.
BetMGM has Allen as its favorite because of the liability of so many early tickets and heavy money on the third-year pro.
Since no running back has won the award since Adrian Peterson in 2012, the top 12 bets at Tipico are all quarterbacks.
The other popular choices are Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott (+650), followed by Kyler Murray (+900), the defending MVP Aaron Rodgers (+1000), 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson (+1200), 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert (+2000) and Ryan Tannehill (+3000) bringing up the rear.
Murray and Jackson, in particular, provided an abundance of their teams’ heavy lifting before a Murray ankle injury and Jackson's Thursday struggles against Miami.
Murray's Arizona Cardinals are tied with Rodgers' Green Bay Packers for that valued top-seeded position in the NFC. Murray has 2,276 passing yards with 17 touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 110.4 passer rating.
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Jackson has Baltimore (6-3) atop the AFC North for now, but his bid to repeat is ominous given a remaining schedule that includes two games apiece against formidable division foes Cleveland and Pittsburgh, another meeting with a Bengals team that previously routed the Ravens and home games against the Packers and Rams.
“The MVP usually isn’t determined by that,” Jay Kornegay, Las Vegas Superbook’s race and sportsbook director, said regarding players who carry their respective teams. “It’s determined by the success of the team. I’m not a big fan of this award. There’s so many factors. So many teams have a record just above .500 and they’d have never been there without that one player carrying them.
"He might deserve MVP consideration, but his team is only 10-7. Then there’s the others with an above-average performance on a team that finishes 14-3. They’re going to look at the team that’s 14-3. I don’t know … I think it’s somewhat biased.”
Stoneback also foresees the schedule compromising Jackson beyond the damage done during his Thursday loss to the struggling Miami Dolphins.
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“Arizona will have a better record than Baltimore," Stoneback said. "I don’t see Jackson as having a shot at it this season. Murray’s chances are much better.”
At +1000, Rodgers’ back-to-back MVP cause took a self-inflicted hit in the form of a positive COVID-19 test and vaccination debacle.
His value was fully revealed, however, as backup Jordan Love directed the Packers (8-2) to one touchdown in last week's loss at Kansas City before Rodgers came back to pace a Sunday triumph over Seattle.
“He still has a chance of winning," Kornegay said. “Let’s just imagine the Packers winning the conference with him still having a solid year … most voters would probably give him a pass.”
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Prescott is trending upward again after responding to a horrific game against Denver by blasting Atlanta Sunday. His team’s popularity and four remaining NFC East games could boost his candidacy, while Herbert was a model of poise before a loss to Minnesota dropped the Chargers out of the AFC West lead.
The new AFC West leader is the team directed by preseason MVP favorite Mahomes, who torched the Raiders in Las Vegas.
The top skill-position player, according to Tipico, is Rams receiver Cooper Kupp at +10,000.
Through nine games, Kupp has amassed an astounding 74 receptions for 1,019 yards and 10 touchdowns. He’s on pace to lead the NFL in all three categories. Only four others have ever accomplished the feat.
Michael Thomas holds the NFL record with 149 catches in a season and Calvin Johnson has the most receiving yards ever with 1,946. But in a 17-game season, Kupp could eclipse both.
Stoneback nonetheless has set Kupp as a 150/1 longshot to win MVP.
"There’s never been a wide receiver who’s won MVP," Stoneback said.
Las Vegas Superbook’s Kornegay echoes that, saying a Kupp MVP is something “I don’t foresee happening at all.”
“A receiver would have to put up 2,000 yards with 18 touchdowns – something mind-blowing – and an All-Pro campaign like that is not going to overtake Tom Brady. Look, people were talking about Derrick Henry as an MVP if he could get to 2,000 rushing yards,” Kornegay said. “They said he would have a shot – a shot, not that he would win the award. Because it is a quarterback league. And history tells us that.”
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