NFL divisional round winners and losers: Chiefs' coaches were brilliant; overtime rules stink
We're down to the final four teams.
The NFL saw a thrilling divisional round weekend, as all four games were decided on the final play. The Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals advanced to the conference championship games next Sunday, where they'll play for a spot in Super Bowl 56.
Fans of stellar quarterback play, however, will miss the Bucs' Tom Brady and Packers' Aaron Rodgers, both of whom were eliminated. That means for the first time since the 2009 season, neither Brady nor Rodgers will be playing in a conference championship game. And after Josh Allen's stunning performance in the Bills' loss to the Chiefs, it's hard to leave him out of that group, too.
Here are the winners and losers for the entire divisional round.
WINNERS
Chiefs' coaching staff
This will likely be overlooked, given the wild ending of the Chiefs' roller-coaster victory against the Bills, but Andy Reid and his staff coached the Chiefs brilliantly. Let's start with those timeouts. So often, we see teams needing to burn them in the second half because they trot out the wrong personnel group or are caught with 10 men in a huddle or some other avoidable mistake.
For Kansas City, 13 seconds was enough for Patrick Mahomes to drive 44 yards into field-goal range precisely because Reid and the Chiefs didn't have to burn unnecessary timeouts; the first one Kansas City called in the second half came with eight seconds left in regulation. The second was after the following play, with three seconds left. Without those valuable stoppages — along with Buffalo's decision to kick deep and its breakdowns in coverage — the Chiefs would not have been able to tie the game.
The Chiefs played clean football throughout, with only one penalty enforced against them, for only 10 yards. They did not turn the ball over. They were effective on third downs (eight of 13; 62%) and gave up only two sacks for just eight yards. They converted both of their goal-to-go scenarios for touchdowns. Yes, the Chiefs are stacked, especially on offense. But credit this coaching staff for making it (relatively) easy for these star players to do their jobs.
The Rams' rush
If there was one way Los Angeles was going to upset the Buccaneers, it was through its pass rush. Tampa Bay's offensive line was battered with injuries, and even though the Rams squandered a 24-point lead late in the game to make things palm-sweatingly close, that rush was why L.A. prevailed 30-27 on a game-winning Matt Gay field goal.
Though he was sacked only three times, Brady was pressured on 17 of his 54 (29.8%) dropbacks. The Rams blitzed 18 times, or one-third of Brady's passes. He still completed 30 passes for 329 yards, so the pass rush wasn't entirely dominant, but it was disruptive enough to get Brady off rhythm and force him, at times, to either miss open players or not even see them.
More importantly, the Rams' defensive front seemed to recognize the magnitude of third downs and passing situations, winning their individual matchups when LA needed to fluster Brady. That's why, even when LA's offense imploded with four lost fumbles in the final 31 minutes, the Rams were able to slow Tampa's offense just enough.
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Bengals' young talent
The Cincinnati Bengals possess a stable of young talent — particularly on offense. Quarterback Joe Burrow, receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins and running back Joe Mixon are all stars, and all are 25 or younger.
The key for Cincinnati will be to capitalize on the bargains they have in those over-performing rookie contracts, because it won't be long until the front office will need to be judicious with this roster.
The Bengals have two more seasons of Burrow on his rookie deal, with a fifth-year option in 2024 that will almost certainly get exercised. Chase will be up for his fifth-year option the following season. Both of those players, when extended, will likely be up for market-setting-type deals.
Higgins is in his rookie deal for two more seasons, and the Bengals showed great foresight by extending Mixon's deal in September 2020. Historically, Cincinnati hasn't been one to spend money in free agency, just like it has usually looked to get discounts when re-signing players. It will likely need to let some players walk, but this is the Bengals' chance to take advantage of the work they did during the rebuilding years of the last half-decade.
LOSERS
Overtime rules
It's time to finally change the rules. In what was the best game of his career, Bills QB Allen did not touch the ball with the season on the line. There were 25 points scored by both teams (resulting in four lead-changes or ties) in the final 1:54 of regulation. This was easily the best game of the season and arguably among the best in NFL playoff history (if you favor offense).
But because the Bills lost the overtime coin toss, they never got the chance to respond. Yes, Buffalo knew it needed to get a stop, but both defenses were surely exhausted. Winning the coin toss, at this stage, represents such an unfair advantage. Allen had 397 total yards of offense and four touchdowns against the Chiefs. Not allowing him to touch the ball was criminal.
Now, with all that said, Buffalo's decision to kick the ball off into the end zone and give Mahomes 13 seconds to get into field-goal range at the end of regulation needs to be questioned. A squib kick would have ticked valuable time off the clock, and it's safe to say it would have made Kansas City's job that much more difficult.
That last call by Todd Bowles
There were several reasons the Buccaneers lost to the Rams; falling into a huge early hole and a key missed field goal were prominent. But the most confounding was the last defensive play call by defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. It resulted in a broken coverage that led to Rams receiver Cooper Kupp streaking down the middle of the field. Forty-four yards later, LA was in field-goal range.
The Buccaneers brought six rushers on the play, which was a curious decision to begin with. Tampa was at LA's 44-yard line with only 28 seconds left. Keeping passes in front of them would have been a safe play, but there was some miscommunication. The main problem? It wasn't a great idea to begin with.
This season, according to NextGen Stats, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford completed 32-of-42 passes for 439 yards when teams rushed six or more players, throwing nine touchdowns versus only one interception. It's a high-risk, high-reward call. This one happened to burn the Bucs.
Green Bay
After the Packers were stunned at home in a 13-10 loss against the 49ers, it seems Rodgers' future in Green Bay became a little more unsettled.
After a tumultuous offseason in which Rodgers aired his grievances with the team's front office, specifically general manager Brian Gutekunst, there was already doubt about whether the relationship was tenable beyond this season. Green Bay's 13-4 finish in the regular season and securing the No. 1 seed seemed to have mended some of those differences.
But the Packers have salary cap issues to sort this offseason that will almost certainly prompt an exodus of talent. Rodgers said after the game he doesn't want to be part of a rebuild. While he deserves some blame for the loss, the sting of another early exit from the playoffs — where Rodgers now has an 11-10 record (including a 7-9 mark since the Packers won the Super Bowl in 2010) — may lead him to believe he needs a fresh start.
It's safe to wonder if Rodgers' best chance at another Lombardi is still in Green Bay, given that the Packers play in a division that hasn't given them much resistance. All to say: A huge decision looms in the coming weeks.