NFC North could be shaped by these second-half trends
GREEN BAY, Wisc. – The NFC North is a fascinating place to be right now.
There are eight games left for each of the four teams after the Green Bay Packers had the division’s final bye last weekend. Two games separate the third-place team (Packers, 6-3) and the first-place team (Detroit Lions, 8-1), making it appear as though the division is up for grabs.
But the Lions have beaten both the Packers and the second-place Minnesota Vikings (7-2) on the road and are guaranteed they won’t lose the head-to-head tiebreaker if the division comes down to that. They have won seven in a row, but even more impressive is that four of their past five have been on the road.
They have only three road games left.
They have outscored opponents by a league-high 113 points and showed in a 26-23 victory at Houston that not even five Jared Goff interceptions are too much to overcome.
“We’re finding different ways to win,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said Monday. “We’re an improved team from last year in that regard. Every time you get in these types of battles, and even when things don’t go your way, we find a way to overcome it.
“It’s why we have the guys that we have, why we built the team that we’ve got and the lessons that have been learned from last year make you stronger, make you better. So, man, our guys, they’re a resilient group and they won’t go away.”
The Lions’ remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .533, which is roughly the same as Minnesota’s (.541) and Green Bay’s opponents (.514). The fourth-place Chicago Bears (4-5) haven’t played a division game, so six games are against teams with a combined 21-6 record. They have the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL based on their opponents' winning percentage (.708).
The Packers almost caught a break during their bye when Detroit and Minnesota stumbled against a pair of teams (Houston and Jacksonville) they had beaten. But both pulled out the victory. Green Bay would have been effectively two games behind the Lions and one behind the Vikings (because of tiebreakers).
Even if they go on a spectacular run, which includes victories over the Lions and Vikings, the Packers would have a hard time winning the division. The Lions have four challenging games remaining — Green Bay, Buffalo, San Francisco and Minnesota — but only one (San Francisco) is on the road.
The Packers' second half begins with the Bears at Soldier Field on Sunday and continues with the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins at home. It should be clear in the coming weeks whether the Packers are capable of a strong second-half run.
The Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron on Tuesday and will try to jump-start their offense with a new direction for quarterback Caleb Williams, the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft. The 49ers got star running back Christian McCaffrey back after an eight-game absence due to Achilles injuries and should be formidable. The Dolphins (3-6) showed life in quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s second game back from a head injury, beating the Los Angeles Rams on the road 23-15.
So, these aren't gimmes.
The Packers offense has not reached the level of efficiency it did the second half of last season and the defense has been better mostly because of a flurry of takeaways. Given they lost to both the Vikings and Lions with quarterback Jordan Love on the field, they can’t go on playing like they have been.
“All of the teams in our division are really good teams, and we’re all there right at the top of the NFC,” defensive tackle Kenny Clark said. “So, it’s definitely going to come down to the end. We all understand that. The only thing we can focus on is just coming in week by week and making sure we go 1-0.”
Here are some NFC North trends that could shape the second half of the season:
The Packers aren’t the only NFC North team throwing too many interceptions
The NFC North has the best record (25-11) of any division in the NFL, which is why it is an anomaly that the four teams have combined to throw 34 interceptions through the first nine games. Love’s struggles have been well-publicized, but after throwing three Sunday, Minnesota’s Sam Darnold is now tied with Love for the division lead with 10.
Detroit’s Goff was playing extraordinarily efficient football, but after throwing five against the Texans, he now has nine interceptions. His quarterback rating dropped from 115.0 to 104.4 because of his performance Sunday.
Williams has the fewest interceptions with five.
The combined 34 interceptions is the most nine games into the season since 2010, when they combined for 49, a search of Stathead.com’s statistical database revealed. They are on pace to throw 64, which would be the most since 67 in 2013.
Love ranks third in the NFL in highest interception percentage (4.7) and is the only quarterback in the division to throw a pick-six (two). The Packers have lost three of the five games in which he has thrown an interception.
Detroit has lost one of the four games Goff has thrown an interception, Minnesota has lost one of seven games Darnold has thrown an interception and Chicago has lost two of the three games Williams has thrown an interception.
How the quarterbacks take care of the ball in the second half of the season is worth watching.
Defense has been the name of the game in the NFC North
Maybe it’s the result of beating up on the AFC South and its struggling quarterbacks.
The division is 12-2 against the South, so there’s no denying the North has caught a break with so many interconference games against a bad division. The final eight games of the season should determine whether the defensive rankings are legit.
All four teams rank in the top 11 in the NFL in scoring defense:
- third, Minnesota, 17.4 points allowed per game
- seventh, Chicago, 18.6
- eighth, Detroit, 19.0
- 11th, Green Bay, 21.6
All four teams rank in the top 10 in takeaways:
- first, Minnesota, 20
- second tied, Green Bay, 19
- third tied, Detroit, 18
- seventh tied, Chicago, 16
All four teams rank in the top 10 in third-down success:
- first, Detroit, 31.37%
- sixth, Green Bay, 33.01%
- seventh, Chicago, 33.3%
- eighth, Minnesota, 33.63%
The Packers and Lions were rolling when they hit the playoffs last year, but holes in their defenses ended up squashing their Super Bowl hopes. When push came to shove, the 49ers drove the ball down their throats on late-game possessions to win.
The Packers and Lions have made moves to bolster their secondary and the Vikings added nearly a dozen starters and top contributors to coordinator Brian Flores’ defense. Those moves are paying off, so far.
Lions, Vikings and Packers have lost key players to injury
As far as losses in the division, the Lions can claim they’ve had it the worst.
Losing end Aidan Hutchinson to a broken leg in Week 5 is immeasurable given his importance to the defense. It’s a testament to the rest of the unit that the Lions have been as good as they have been.
But they rank 23rd in sack percentage and that’s directly attributable to Hutchinson’s sack production (he still ranks tied for fifth with 7½) and those he set up for others taking on double-team blocks.
The Lions decided they needed to replace some of his pressure and sent a pair of late draft picks to the Cleveland Browns for former Packers pass rusher Za’Darius Smith. He played in all eight Browns games and totaled 23 tackles and five sacks before heading to Detroit.
The Vikings also suffered a devastating loss. Left tackle Christian Darrisaw’s season ended two weeks ago when he tore the ACL and MCL in his left knee.
Darrisaw was the anchor on the Vikings’ offensive line and rather than try to get by, the front office traded a pair of late picks for Jacksonville veteran tackle Cam Robinson. He was immediately inserted into the starting lineup Sunday, providing some peace of mind for Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell.
The Packers lost Love for two games and two quarters and managed not to miss a beat, winning all three games thanks to the play of backup Malik Willis. But the sprained MCL Love suffered against Philadelphia in the opener and the groin injury he suffered against Jacksonville have affected his play.
The Packers didn’t have to make a move to overcome their loss because it wasn’t season-ending.
Who suffers the fewest injuries as the season goes on will help determine the division, especially with the trade deadline passed.
If the division comes down to a last-second kick, which team is best equipped to handle it?
The Packers weren’t even in the discussion with rookie Brayden Narveson, who missed five of 17 field goals in the first six games. General manager Brian Gutekunst accepted his mistake and signed veteran Brandon McManus, who kicked walk-off game-winners in his first two games.
Both the Lions and Vikings have had to replace their injured starters with inexperienced kickers and the results have been nothing less than remarkable.
Jake Bates never kicked in college and then took a chance in the UFL where the Lions spotted him and decided to sign him (the Packers tried to sign him but he wanted to kick indoors). When Michael Badgley got injured in camp, Bates took over and the Lions smartly limited him to makeable field goals in the early going.
Then, against Houston on Sunday, he nailed kicks of 58 and 52 yards to beat the Texans. He has connected on all 14 of his field goals this year.
The Vikings selected Will Reichard in the sixth round of the draft and rolled with him for the first eight weeks of the season. He connected on his first 14 before missing a pair against Indianapolis. He suffered a thigh injury in the game that landed him on injured reserve.
Minnesota signed John Parker Romo, who had competed with Reichard for the kicking job in training camp, and proceeded to go 4-for-4 in the Vikings’ 12-7 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. He will be their kicker until Reichard is healthy again.
Romo is 27, so he’s not exactly a youngster, but this was his first NFL game.
McManus, 33, is the old man of the group. He has hit 6 of 7 attempts for the Packers and all six of his extra points.
The Bears have the most stable kicking position with veteran Cairo Santos in his 11th year in the NFL and fifth with the Bears. He has made 12 of 14 field goal attempts and 15 of 16 extra points this year.
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