Packers not keeping up with the competition for a late-season run
GREEN BAY, Wisc. – The 2024 season didn’t hang in the balance Sunday in Chicago the way it did a year ago when the Green Bay Packers needed a fourth-and-1 stop with 23 seconds left to avoid suffering their seventh loss in 10 games.
It just felt that way as the Bears lined up for a potential game-winning field goal attempt.
At 6-3, the Packers could have lost to the Bears at Soldier Field and still been in solid playoff contention in the NFC. They weren’t in danger of falling to 3-7 like they would have been if defensive lineman Kenny Clark hadn't deflected Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert's pass in the final seconds of their 10th game last year.
Coach Matt LaFleur’s ’24 team is performing better at this point of quarterback Jordan Love’s second season as a starter than it did at the same point in his first. And the team's schedule is more favorable given it gets to play the 5-5 San Francisco 49ers and 4-6 Miami Dolphins at home the next two weeks instead of the 8-2 Detroit Lions and 8-3 Kansas City Chiefs as it did after the Chargers victory.
But the Packers appear far away from being the team that took off after game No. 10 last year. They seem to be taking their own sweet time building thrust for the stretch run.
The Packers need to dive bomb the teams left on their schedule because this is when good clubs turn into great ones. This is exactly the time the ’23 Packers discovered they were a better team than everyone thought they were before that Chargers victory.
Just look around the NFL and you’ll find some prime examples of teams who are kicking it into gear as the season marches past the halfway point.
In the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles have improved from 2-2 to 8-2 with a six-game winning streak and currently trail the conference-leading Lions by just a half-game. The Arizona Cardinals have gone from 2-4 to 6-4 and currently lead the NFC West. The Minnesota Vikings bounced back from a pair of losses and have won three straight to improve to 8-2.
In the AFC, the Buffalo Bills extended their winning streak to six games with a signature victory over the previously undefeated Kansas City Chiefs and now are playing for homefield advantage in the playoffs. The Pittsburgh Steelers have blasted to the top of the AFC North with five straight victories, four of them after Russell Wilson took over as starting quarterback.
The Packers, meanwhile, came out of their bye lucky to beat the Bears, who were 4-5 and fresh off firing their offensive coordinator when they hosted their rival. It would be wrong not to give the Bears credit for pushing the Packers to the edge of despair before letting a game-winning field goal try get blocked on the final play of a 20-19 defeat.
But as Love noted afterward, the Packers must be better.
“There's a lot of stuff to clean up,” Love said.
Packers playing better after 10 games than in 2023, but must match same second-half trajectory
Maybe winning tight games is a trait that will serve them well late. But if they’re going to play with the big boys, they’ve got to do better than beat the Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars on the final play of the game.
As the Packers get ready to play San Francisco, which still is loaded with talent despite its many injuries, there’s no part of the Packers’ game you can call special. They are doing just enough to win the games they’re supposed to win.
They rank fourth in the league in rushing and are a different offense than any LaFleur has coached because of what Josh Jacobs has brought to the table. They are a considerably better offense than they were at this time a year ago mostly because of his production and the pressure he takes off everyone else.
The Packers are averaging 388.1 yards per game and have scored 27 touchdowns, which is well ahead of where they were in ’23 after 10 games when the offense averaged 319.6 yards and had scored 22 touchdowns.
Despite his interception problem, Love has a higher passer rating (90.6 to 83.8), more passing yards per game (260.1 to 233.1), a better completion percentage (62.3 to 59.7) and the same number of touchdowns (16) as he did at the 10-game mark of the season last year.
The Packers are even scoring touchdowns in the red zone at a higher rate than they did last year (48.7% to 47.1%).
Defensively, they are close to the same team as a year ago under coordinator Joe Barry except that they have 19 takeaways (compared to nine).
Jeff Hafley’s unit is allowing fewer rushing yards per game (119.6 to 134.7) but more yards per carry (4.4 to 4.3). Opposing quarterbacks have a slightly lower passer rating (84.37 to 85.31), but the defense has allowed more touchdowns (23 to 19) and has about the same number of sacks (25 to 23).
Last year, it was the offense that reached higher ground. Love threw for 322 yards and two touchdowns against the Chargers, starting what would be an incredible run through the regular season and the wild-card round of the playoffs.
Then they went to Detroit and shocked the Lions on Thanksgiving Day and came home to beat Kansas City. Even though the Packers stumbled some in December, they were able to finish the season winning five of their final seven games.
Thanks in large part to Love’s improvement, the Packers went from averaging about 320 yards a game to 382.4 per game in the final seven. They went from 217.5 passing yards per game to 256.1. Love completed 70.8% of his passes after completing just 59.8% in the first 10 games.
The offense went from giving up 22 sacks to giving up eight. It went from averaging 2.3 touchdowns per game to 3.0 touchdowns. Love went from 10 interceptions to one.
As a team, they went from committing 7.2 penalties a game to 4.7.
The only area that went the other direction was the defense.
Just two interceptions the final seven games. Yards per game allowed grew to 353. Opposing quarterback passer rating climbed to 102.94.
The time is now to start a second-half run to the playoffs
Hafley's group may advance its game in the final month or so, but it's probably up to the offense to change the trajectory.
The bottom line is the Packers did last year what Super Bowl contenders do when they kept outperforming the best teams on their schedule. Players like tight end Tucker Kraft, receivers Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton, and linemen Rasheed Walker and Sean Rhyan upped their level of play.
At the same time, LaFleur stayed ahead of the curve with his game plans, figuring out ways to block the heavy-blitzing defenses of the Chiefs, Vikings and New York Giants while getting Love to protect the ball.
It was all the things the Packers expected to do from the start of this season. They’ve done just enough to win seven games, but it’s hardly been in a way that would scare any of their future opponents. If the best is yet to come, it’s going to have to start soon.
Their competition has already taken flight.
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