TNF best bets: Top player props for Browns vs Steelers 'Thursday Night Football'
There's something to be said about staying true to your brand. You'd probably think twice if Walmart decided to become a luxury store, the same way that McDonald's could never become a gourmet spot with a dress code.
The same can be true of the AFC North - a tough and rugged division built on hatred. Flashy passing attacks are for the coasts. The only razzle-dazzle this division comes prepared with are rushing attacks and bruising defenses that make the Midwest proud.
So when the Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers to open Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season, it's only fitting that bad weather will be on the menu. Rain and snow promise to impact the action for Thursday night's battle between two teams headed in opposite directions.
The 8-2 Steelers are sitting pretty atop the AFC North, fresh off a win over the rival Ravens for their fifth straight victory. Meanwhile, the 2-8 Browns are looking ahead to the offseason, a familiar feeling for a team that's experienced just four winning seasons in the 25 since the Y2K scare.
With the holidays right around the corner, now is the time to get to work helping build our holiday shopping fund. If we make the right picks, friends and family will get something really nice this year. Maybe that's how those people afford new cars with red bows in the commercials every year.
What are the best bets for "Thursday Night Football?" Here are some prop bets to consider for the Week 12 "TNF" battle.
Thursday Night Football best bets
All odds are via BetMGM as of Wednesday.
Darnell Washington (PIT, TE) OVER 10.5 receiving yards (-110)
Since switching to Russell Wilson as the starting quarterback, the Steelers' passing offense has morphed into a more vertical attack. The backup tight end's role has only grown as a result, in a figurative and literal sense. Standing at 6 feet 7 inches, Washington might as well be the size of the famous monument in the nation's capital to opposing defenders. Weighing in at 265 pounds, he brings plenty of size and strength to the table.
All of that is to say that Washington has been deployed mostly as a blocker, essentially playing as an extra offensive lineman for Pittsburgh's run-first attack. However, the wrinkle is that his snaps are on the rise, out-snapping or tying Pat Freiermuth in each of the team's two games since their Week 9 bye. Freiermuth's involvement has taken a hit with Wilson involved, opening the door for Washington to contribute. In Washington's first six games of the season with Justin Fields, he averaged just 1.2 targets and 9.2 yards per game, while Freiermuth saw 4.3 targets and 32.3 yards of production. Since Wilson became the starter, Washington is seeing around three targets and 28.3 yards compared to Freiermuth's 2.5 targets and 25.3 yards in four games.
Wilson has enjoyed throwing to bigger-bodied receivers over the years and now is the time to buy stock in Washington. The tight end likely only needs one catch to beat this number and could be a ladder candidate up to 25 yards. We'd recommend sprinkling some loose change on him to score a touchdown in an ugly weather game at +1000.
Nick Chubb (CLE, RB) UNDER 51.5 rushing yards (-115)
Fans of narrative plays look away. Chubb famously suffered a season-ending knee injury against the Steelers in Week 2 of the 2023 campaign, requiring two surgeries to put the knee back together. He didn't return until Week 7 of this season, meaning this sets up nicely as a revenge game of sorts for the running back. However, it is Chubb's injury that has us backing the under here.
This is only the fifth game of Chubb's season and this Thursday night matchup comes on a short week. Cleveland has been notoriously cautious with their workhorse, limiting him to 13.3 carries per game. Chubb has bested this number just once in the four games since his return, averaging what would be a career-worst 3.1 yards per carry. After posting just 50 rushing yards against a leaky Saints' run defense, it's unlikely he'll be able to beat that against a stronger Steelers unit on just a few day's rest. Couple that with the fact that Cleveland hasn't played in many favorable game scripts, and you have a recipe for the under.
Elijah Moore (CLE, WR) OVER 3.5 receptions (+110)
The weather looks frightful, but this number for Moore's receptions is delightful. Of the Browns' top three receivers, Moore has the lowest average depth of target, at 8.6 yards. With rain and snow threatening to negatively impact the passing attacks on Thursday night, we'll continue our theme of targeting secondary options for each team. Like Washington with Wilson, Moore's involvement since the Browns handed the keys to Jameis Winston has been noticeable.
The receiver is averaging 9.7 targets per game in the three starts since Winston took over, collecting at least six receptions in two games. Pittsburgh's pass rush could make life difficult for the Cleveland quarterback, forcing him to quickly get rid of the ball against one of the league's best defenses. Moore's involvement in the quick passing game and profile as a player that won't be impacted by bad weather makes +110 worth the admission price.
Russell Wilson (PIT, QB) UNDER 11.5 rushing yards (-115)
If you've ever wondered what a Wilson statue might look like to commemorate his success in Seattle, look no further than the quarterback's time in the black and gold. Wilson is averaging 3.5 rushing attempts and posting one lonely rushing yard across four starts this season. He has yet to eclipse the double-digit mark and doesn't appear to be a running threat anymore. His longest run of the season checks in at six yards, and the Browns have done a good job at preventing non-rushing quarterbacks from using their legs this season. The likelihood that Pittsburgh wins this game and has a couple of kneeldowns at the end also can't be overlooked. Even if Wilson posts his best rushing number of the season and goes a couple of yards over this number, those late-game knees can take him right back under. Back the trend with confidence.
Thursday Night Football same-game parlay
If you believe these picks can go 4-for-4, you might want to throw them into a same-game parlay. Odds on that parlay come out to +1050, meaning a $10 wager would return $115 if all four legs are victorious.