Dolphins playoff picture: Odds, remaining schedule, AFC wild-card picture
When the Miami Dolphins lost for the second time to the Buffalo Bills in Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season, their season was on life support.
The Dolphins had stumbled to a 2-6 start after losing Tua Tagovailoa long-term to a concussion in the second game of the season. Miami struggled to replace him, giving Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley a chance to start in his place but failing to see their offense function as the explosive unit it had the previous season.
As such, the Dolphins were an afterthought following their second loss to the Bills. But now, Miami appears to be right back in the thick of the playoff race thanks to a well-timed, three-game winning streak.
Tagovailoa is starting to reacclimate himself to the lineup which is unlocking the potential of weapons like De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Jonnu Smith. Miami's defense is also making strides under its new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver and has allowed just 16.3 points per game during their winning streak.
Will the Dolphins' resurgence be enough to get them into the wild-card race in an open AFC field, or will it be too little, too late for Mike McDaniel's squad? Miami may not have much room for error, but the Dolphins have a decent-looking path to postseason contention.
Here's what you need to know about the Dolphins' playoff odds, their remaining schedule, and where they stand in the AFC playoff picture for Week 13.
Dolphins playoff odds
According to BetMGM Sportsbook, the Dolphins have odds of +220 to make the playoffs entering Week 13. That implied probability gives Miami a 31.25% chance of qualifying for the postseason.
Dolphins remaining schedule
The Dolphins' odds to make the postseason haven't just shortened because of their three-game winning streak. It's also an acknowledgement that the team has the sixth-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, per Tankathon. Their six remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .433.
Of course, Miami's most difficult remaining game comes in Week 13, as they are playing the 8-3 Packers on a short week in potential sub-freezing weather at Lambeau Field. But even if the Dolphins can't win that contest, they can remain in the playoff hunt.
Below is a full look at Miami's schedule:
- Week 13: at Green Bay Packers (8-3)
- Week 14: vs. New York Jets (3-8)
- Week 15: at Houston Texans (7-5)
- Week 16: vs. San Francisco 49ers (5-6)
- Week 17: at Cleveland Browns (3-8)
- Week 18: at New York Jets (3-8)
AFC East standings
The Dolphins won't realistically contend for the AFC East title. The Bills have all but wrapped that up after beating the Dolphins twice and building a four-game lead in the standings over Miami entering Week 13.
Below is a full look at the AFC East standings entering Week 13:
- Buffalo Bills (9-2)
- Miami Dolphins (5-6)
- New York Jets (3-8)
- New England Patriots (3-9)
The Bills need to win just one of their last six games and see the Dolphins lose one of their last six to wrap up a fifth straight division title. That why the odds to win the AFC East are off the board at BetMGM Sportsbook.
NFL playoff picture Week 13
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs (10-1, AFC West leaders)
- Buffalo Bills (9-2, AFC East leaders)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3, AFC North leaders)
- Houston Texans (7-5, AFC South leaders)
- Baltimore Ravens (8-4, wild card No. 1)
- Los Angeles Chargers (7-4, wild card No. 2)
- Denver Broncos (7-5, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Miami Dolphins (5-6), Indianapolis Colts (5-7), Cincinnati Bengals (4-7).
NFC
- Detroit Lions (10-1, NFC North leaders)
- Philadelphia Eagles (9-2, NFC East leaders)
- Seattle Seahawks (6-5, NFC West leaders)
- Atlanta Falcons (6-5, NFC South leaders)
- Minnesota Vikings (9-2, wild card No. 1)
- Green Bay Packers (8-3, wild card No. 2)
- Washington Commanders (7-5, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Arizona Cardinals (6-5), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6), Los Angeles Rams (5-6), San Francisco 49ers (5-6), New Orleans Saints (4-7), Chicago Bears (4-7), Dallas Cowboys (4-7).