TNF best bets: Top player props, anytime TD scorers for Chargers vs. Broncos
When the Denver Broncos acquired Russell Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks in 2022, many thought that would mark the beginning of a dominant stretch for the AFC West.
Two years later, that has finally arrived. The Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers are finally good enough to challenge for playoff spots, and while they haven't yet figured out how to unseat the Kansas City Chiefs, the division is looking much more competitive than it once was.
That has largely been due to the coach-quarterback combinations for each team. The Chargers hired Jim Harbaugh to get the most out of Justin Herbert, a first-round pick from the 2020 NFL draft. Herbert has responded by becoming one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL, recently going 11 games without throwing an interception.
Meanwhile, Sean Payton moved on from Wilson and selected a successor in the 2024 NFL draft. Bo Nix's career started slowly, but he has improved every week and has helped position Denver to snap a postseason drought that dates back to Peyton Manning's Super Bowl 50 win.
The Broncos and Chargers will face off on "Thursday Night Football" in Week 16 in a battle that will significantly impact the AFC West's seeding. A Denver win would put Los Angeles in the No. 7 seed, with the potential to have a couple of teams breathing down its neck over the final two weeks of the season. A Broncos loss would allow the Chargers to leap up to the No. 6 seed while further cementing the NFL wild-card pecking order.
This meaningful game will surely attract the interest of bettors, who will only have two more opportunities to bet on the NFL's Thursday night games during the 2024 season.
What are the best bets for "Thursday Night Football?" Here are some player props and anytime TD bets to consider for "TNF's" Week 16 battle of the AFC West.
Thursday Night Football best bets
All odds are via BetMGM as of Thursday.
Ladd McConkey, OVER 66.5 receiving yards (-115)
McConkey has become Herbert's clear-cut No. 1 weapon over the course of his rookie season. The Georgia product is averaging 6.8 targets per game in 13 outings (11 starts) and seems likely to once again get a huge workload for the Chargers against the Broncos.
That could bode well for McConkey. Denver's pass defense has been shakier than usual in recent weeks, surrendering 312 yards per game over its last three outings, including a game during which Jameis Winston nearly threw for 500 yards.
If Riley Moss and Patrick Surtain II are healthy for this game, the Chargers probably won't have that type of high-end success. Even so, Los Angeles should be able to work the ball over the middle of the field, an area in which McConkey has enjoyed much success.
The Broncos may choose to shadow McConkey with Surtain, so betting on the rookie to go over his 6.5 reception total may not be wise despite his high volume of targets. But asking McConkey to go over his receiving total? That's more reasonable. He is averaging 95.3 receiving yards over his last four games, so this middle-of-the-road total seems like a good value.
Kimani Vidal UNDER 40.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)
Vidal returned to the Chargers' lineup in Week 13, only after J.K. Dobbins went down with a knee injury that landed him on IR in Week 12. Since then, Vidal has averaged just 5.7 touches and 25.3 total yards per game while largely playing behind Gus Edwards.
Perhaps sportsbooks have set this over higher than usual because the Broncos rank in the top 10 in both receptions (74) and receiving yards (560) allowed to running backs this season. Or maybe they're looking at Vidal's 38-yard receiving touchdown against Denver in Week 6 as a reason to raise the bar in this short-week matchup.
It's hard to trust Vidal until he gets a larger and more consistent workload. He has been out-snapping Edwards in recent weeks, but it isn't clear if that's due to the Chargers seeking a running back change or because Vidal is the better of the two as a recent.
Either way, this number seems a bit high, so don't be afraid to fade Vidal in what could be another defensive "TNF" battle.
Courtland Sutton anytime TD (+180)
The Broncos haven't been able to run the ball at all recently. They are averaging just 84.8 yards per game over their last five outings, so barring a breakout game from one of their three-man running back rotation, it's hard to imagine them moving the ball consistently on the ground against the Chargers.
While the Chargers defense has generally been solid, they allowed Mike Evans to pop off for 159 yards and two touchdowns on nine catches. As a result, Los Angeles has now allowed 16 touchdowns to wide receivers this year. That's tied for the fifth-most in the NFL.
That should benefit Sutton. He is Nix's favorite weapon, earning a team-high 24.2% of the rookie's targets, and his 17 red-zone targets are tied for the seventh-most in the NFL. This seems like a good matchup for Sutton between his volume of opportunities and his ability to break big plays. Bettors can confidently back him to get a touchdown here and may even want to consider betting on his over catch total (5.5, +110).
Stone Smartt anytime TD (+375)
Smartt may not be a household name, but he is trending toward being the Chargers' top tight end on Thursday night. If so, he should have a decent chance to reach the end-zone.
The Chargers rank 17th in the NFL in total tight end targets in the 2024 NFL season with 91. That may not seem like a lot, but Los Angeles has thrown the fourth-fewest passes during the campaign with 403, meaning tight ends account for 22.6% of the team's total targets.
What does that mean? Despite not having top-tier talent at tight end, Herbert likes targeting players at that position. He should continue enjoying that against a Denver defense that has allowed five touchdowns to tight ends this year, tied for the ninth-most in the NFL.
That makes Smartt the best long-shot bet to back for the penultimate "Thursday Night Football" game of the season.