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Steelers playoff picture: Scenarios, potential matchups, odds to win AFC North

Jacob Camenker   Paste BN
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The Pittsburgh Steelers have exceeded expectations during the 2024 NFL season, but they are hoping to close the season strong and set themselves up for playoff success.

The Steelers have already clinched a playoff berth, but they are still fighting to win their first AFC North title since 2020. They had a chance to clinch the division during their Week 16 game against the Baltimore Ravens but a late-game Russell Wilson pick-six ultimately doomed their chances of doing so.

Now, Pittsburgh is locked in a close battle for the top spot in its division. Winning the AFC North would go a long way toward helping the Steelers earn their first playoff win since 2017 given the strong home-field advantage they enjoy at Acrisure Stadium.

How can the Steelers do that? Here's a look at their playoff scenarios for the final two weeks of the season and who they could end up facing in the first round of the NFL postseason.

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Steelers playoff odds

The Steelers clinched a playoff berth in Week 15 despite losing to 27-13 to the Philadelphia Eagles. Both the Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins lost their respective matchups which ensuring that neither could catch Pittsburgh in the standings.

BetMGM gives the Steelers +1600 odds to win the AFC and +4000 odds to win Super Bowl 59. The latter figure is tied for the ninth-shortest odds among the 19 teams with a chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy entering Week 17.

AFC North standings

The more interesting race to watch regarding the Steelers comes in the quest for the AFC North title. They are currently tied atop the standings with the Ravens, so the final two weeks of the season will be used to decide which team will earn the right to host a home playoff game this season.

Here's how the AFC North standings look entering Week 17:

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)
  2. Baltimore Ravens (10-5)
  3. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
  4. Cleveland Browns (3-12)

The Steelers currently hold a lead over the Ravens in the AFC North standings because Pittsburgh has a better record in conference games than Baltimore. As such, if the Steelers win out, they will capture their first division title since 2020.

That said, the Ravens are favored to win the AFC North over the Steelers, according to odds from BetMGM. Baltimore has odds of -175 to win the division, good for an implied probability of 63.6%, while Pittsburgh checks in at +145.

That is largely thanks to the Steelers' remaining schedule, which is among the NFL's most difficult to close the season.

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Steelers remaining schedule

The Steelers have two games remaining in their regular season. The good news is that both of them are home games.

The bad news? The Steelers have the fifth-hardest remaining strength of schedule, as their opponents have a combined winning percentage of .700, per Tankathon.

Much of that is thanks to Pittsburgh's Week 17 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day. The Chiefs have a 14-1 record on the season and can clinch the AFC's No. 1 seed with a victory. That will make the contest difficult for the Steelers.

Below is a full look at Pittsburgh's schedule:

  • Week 17: vs. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1)
  • Week 18: vs. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)

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Steelers potential playoff seeding

The Steelers can technically be seeded anywhere from Nos. 2 through 7 for the playoffs, but they are unlikely to be the conference's No. 2 seed. That would require the Steelers to win out and the Buffalo Bills to lose to both the New York Jets and New England Patriots, which seems highly unlikely to happen.

As for the other seeds, here's a look at how the Steelers could earn each.

No. 3 seed

If the Steelers win their final two games of the season, they would be the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoff picture, unless the Bills drop both of their final two games. The Steelers can also clinch the No. 3 seed by winning one of their last two games, seeing the Texans split their final two games of the season and having the Ravens lose in Week 18 to the Browns. The latter result would ensure Baltimore wouldn't finish the season with a better divisional record than Pittsburgh.

No. 4 seed

The Steelers' path to the No. 4 seed is complicated. It would require the Texans to gain a game on them in the standings while also seeing Pittsburgh stay ahead of Baltimore in the AFC North race. The easiest way for this to happen would be for the Texans to beat the Ravens on Christmas and the Steelers to lose to the Chiefs in Week 17 but beat the Bengals in Week 18.

But more likely, Houston will clinch the No. 4 seed in the AFC. In fact, the Texans will be locked into that seeding if they lose to the Ravens on Christmas.

Nos. 5-7 seeds

If the Ravens overtake the Steelers in the divisional race, Pittsburgh will end up being seeded as one of the wild-card teams in the AFC playoffs. If that happens, their standing in the AFC will depend on whether the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos can finish with a superior record to them.

The Steelers would win tiebreakers over the Chargers and Broncos because they have a better record against the conference than either AFC West team. As such, the Steelers would have the advantage in the race for the No. 5 seed.

However, if the Steelers lose out and either of the Chargers or Broncos win out, that would make the Steelers the No. 6 seed. And if both win out while the Steelers lose out, Pittsburgh could drop as low as the No. 7 seed in the conference.

Still, the Steelers' most likely wild-card scenario remains becoming the No. 5 seed. That would set up what would likely be an intriguing first-round date with the Texans.

Steelers potential playoff matchups

The Steelers have a wide variety of potential opponents in the AFC postseason. Below is a look at the potential opponents they could face if they win the AFC North and clinch either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed:

  • Baltimore Ravens
  • Los Angeles Chargers
  • Denver Broncos
  • Miami Dolphins
  • Indianapolis Colts

And if the Steelers end up as a wild-card team, they would face one of these three squads:

  • Buffalo Bills
  • Baltimore Ravens
  • Houston Texans

The remains an outside chance that the Steelers could rise up to the AFC's No. 2 seed and face the Cincinnati Bengals in the wild-card round, but it remains highly unlikely to happen.

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NFL playoff picture Week 17

AFC

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1, AFC West winners)*
  2. Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winners)*
  3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5, AFC North leaders)*
  4. Houston Texans (9-6, AFC South winners)*
  5. Baltimore Ravens (10-5, wild card No. 1)*
  6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6, wild card No. 2)
  7. Denver Broncos (9-6, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8), Cincinnati Bengals (7-8).

NFC

  1. Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)*
  2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)*
  3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6, NFC West leaders)
  4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
  5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2, wild card No. 1)*
  6. Green Bay Packers (11-4, wild card No. 2)
  7. Washington Commanders (10-5, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)

An asterisk (*) denotes teams that have clinched a playoff spot. Teams that have clinched division titles are noted accordingly.

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