Texans playoff picture: Scenarios, potential matchups, odds to win AFC North
The Houston Texans made an unexpected run to the AFC South title and a playoff berth last season behind then-rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans. This season, they've won another title and are locked into the AFC playoffs.
Houston made big moves in the offseason to upgrade the team around Stroud. On offense, that included trading for wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon. On defense, the Texans signed top free agent edge rusher Danielle Hunter.
Those moves paid off early as Houston won five of its first six games. But injuries began piling up, especially in the wide receiver room. Top wideout Nico Collins missed multiple weeks and both Diggs and Tank Dell suffered season-ending injuries. The Texans have gone 4-5 since that hot start but clinched another AFC South title in Week 15 with a win over Miami.
Though they've won the division, the Texans' seeding and opponent in the wild card round isn't fully clear. Here's how their postseason picture looks entering Week 17:
Texans playoff odds
The Texans clinched the AFC South and a playoff berth with a win in Week 15 coupled with a Colts loss. Here's how Houston's playoff odds look, per BetMGM:
- Win AFC: +1600
- Win Super Bowl: +4000
The Texans are behind the Bills and Chiefs (+200 each) as well as the Ravens (+325) to win the AFC. They're currently ninth in Super Bowl odds.
AFC South standings
Here's how the AFC South standings look entering Week 17:
- Houston Texans (9-6)
- Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
- Tennessee Titans (3-12)
Texans remaining schedule
Houston has two games left with one on the road and one at home. Here's how things look:
- Week 17 (Christmas): vs. Baltimore (10-5)
- Week 18: at Tennessee (3-12)
Texans potential playoff seeding
At 9-6 with the division title secured, Houston has only two options for playoff seeding: No. 3 or No. 4. Here's how they could end up in each one:
No. 3 seed
- Houston wins out and finishes with the same record as the AFC North winner (Pittsburgh or Baltimore).
- If Houston wins out and finishes with the same record as Pittsburgh, the Texans would own the tiebreaker over the Steelers based on conference record (9-3 over 8-4).
- If Houston wins out, they would own the tiebreaker over Baltimore via head-to-head victory.
No. 4 seed
- Houston finishes behind the AFC North winner (Pittsburgh or Baltimore).
- It wouldn't matter if Houston wins out or loses out in this scenario. They're already a game behind both teams on record.
Texans playoff scenarios
Here are potential opponents the Texans could face in the wild card round at home:
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Baltimore Ravens
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Denver Broncos
- Indianapolis Colts
- Miami Dolphins
- Cincinnati Bengals
NFL playoff picture Week 17
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs (14-1, AFC West winners)*
- Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winners)*
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5, AFC North leaders)*
- Houston Texans (9-6, AFC South winners)*
- Baltimore Ravens (10-5, wild card No. 1)*
- Los Angeles Chargers (9-6, wild card No. 2)
- Denver Broncos (9-6, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8), Cincinnati Bengals (7-8).
NFC
- Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)*
- Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)*
- Los Angeles Rams (9-6, NFC West leaders)
- Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
- Minnesota Vikings (13-2, wild card No. 1)*
- Green Bay Packers (11-4, wild card No. 2)
- Washington Commanders (10-5, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
An asterisk (*) denotes teams that have clinched a playoff spot. Teams that have clinched division titles are noted accordingly.