NFL MVP odds: Lamar Jackson making late-season push to overtake Josh Allen
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has long been favored to win the 2024 NFL MVP award. Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is doing everything he can to unseat him in the season's final few weeks.
Jackson has the Ravens on a three-game winning streak and has generated 11 touchdowns over that span. He became the NFL's all-time quarterback rushing leader with his 48-yard touchdown run on Christmas Day and has Baltimore perched atop the AFC North after spending most of the season trailing the Pittsburgh Steelers in the divisional race.
Jackson's prolific performance has caught the eye of NFL fans, media members and sportsbooks alike. He is starting to close the gap on Allen in the MVP race, and pending the Bills quarterback's performance over the final two weeks of the season, Jackson could make a strong case to repeat as the NFL MVP and become just the seventh player to win the award three times.
For now, Allen remains in the driver's seat. Below is a look at the NFL MVP odds for 2024.
NFL MVP odds
Allen remains the leader in the NFL's MVP race, according to BetMGM Sportsbook. He has -250 odds to take home his first MVP award, which implies a 71.43% chance that he will win it.
Below is a look at the four candidates with odds of 30-1 or better to win the award:
- Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills: -250
- Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens: +160
- Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles: +1400
- Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions: +3000
While Allen still has the advantage, it's worth noting that Jackson's odds to win the MVP significantly shortened after the Ravens' 31-2 win over the Houston Texans on Christmas. Jackson accounted for just 15 passes and four runs in that game but managed to generate 255 yards and three touchdowns with that workload.
Josh Allen stats
Allen remains ahead of Jackson because the Bills quarterback has had one of his best seasons to date. He is on pace to post his typically prolific passing and rushing numbers and is also tracking to produce his fewest interceptions in a single season.
Below is a look at Allen's stats from the 2024 NFL season through 15 games:
- Completion rate: 291-of-456 (63.8%)
- Passing yards: 3,549
- Passing TDs: 26
- INTs: 6
- Yards per attempt: 7.8
- Passer rating: 101.2
- QBR: 76.8
- PFF grade: 90.9 (3rd of 42 QBs)
- Carries: 97
- Rushing yards: 514
- Rushing TDs: 11
- Yards per carry: 5.3
Allen's performance has led the Bills to a 12-3 record through 15 games. They have the inside track to the No. 2 seed in the AFC and have beaten both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Lions this season.
That said, Allen and the Bills also lost head-to-head against the Ravens. Allen failed to record a touchdown in that 35-10 loss, but it isn't clear whether that will be held against him in the MVP race.
Lamar Jackson stats
Jackson's stats have been better than Allen's during the 2024 NFL season, not just because the Bills quarterback has played one less game than the Ravens quarterback this season. Jackson's rate stats are simply outpacing Allen's, as Jackson is leading the league in passer rating (121.6), QBR (77.7) and PFF grade (93.3).
Below is a look at Jackson's stats from the 2024 NFL season through 16 games:
- Completion rate: 300-of-442 (67.9%)
- Passing yards: 3,955
- Passing TDs: 39
- INTs: 4
- Yards per attempt: 8.9
- Passer rating: 121.6
- QBR: 77.7
- PFF grade: 93.3 (1st of 42 QBs)
- Carries: 130
- Rushing yards: 852
- Rushing TDs: 4
- Yards per carry: 6.6
The only category in which Allen has a lead over Jackson is rushing touchdowns. That's because the Ravens tend to use Derrick Henry as a goal-line battering ram, so Jackson sees fewer opportunities to break into the end zone.
The main difference between Allen and Jackson for most of the season was that Allen had the Bills in the running for the No. 1 seed while Jackson had the Ravens earning a wild-card berth. The Ravens have ridden a three-game winning streak to an 11-5 season and are now pacing to win the AFC North, which could further help Jackson close the gap behind Allen.
How Lamar Jackson's stats compare to QB's other MVP seasons
Jackson's 2024 stats are the best of his career to date. They are vastly better than the stats he posted winning the MVP last season and match up well with his 2019 stats, during which he fell just one vote shy of being a unanimous MVP selection.
Here's a look at how Jackson fared in each of his two previous MVP-winning seasons:
Lamar Jackson stats 2019
- Completion rate: 265-of-401 (66.1%)
- Passing yards: 3,127
- Passing TDs: 36
- INTs: 6
- Yards per attempt: 7.8
- Passer rating: 113.3
- QBR: 83.0
- PFF grade: 90.3 (3rd of 37 QBs)
- Carries: 176
- Rushing yards: 1,206
- Rushing TDs: 7
- Yards per carry: 6.9
Lamar Jackson stats 2023
- Completion rate: 307-of-457 (67.2%)
- Passing yards: 3,678
- Passing TDs: 24
- INTs: 7
- Yards per attempt: 8.0
- Passer rating: 102.7
- QBR: 64.7
- PFF grade: 90.4 (2nd of 38 QBs)
- Carries: 148
- Rushing yards: 821
- Rushing TDs: 5
- Yards per carry: 5.5
Considering that, it's easy to see why Jackson is gaining momentum. He is posting the best season of his career, and his other top seasons were good enough to earn him strong MVP consideration (and ultimately, the award). Why shouldn't he get a chance to win it once again?
It's also easy to see why voters are backing Allen. The Bills quarterback has helped Buffalo to consistently win despite having a dearth of proven weapons around him. That might be enough to allow him to stave off this late competition from Jackson.