Skip to main content

Bengals playoff picture: Scenarios, chances for Cincinnati to make postseason

Jacob Camenker   Paste BN
play
Show Caption

This story has been updated with new information

The Cincinnati Bengals' playoff chances appeared to be dead in the water after the team dropped to 4-8 in its 44-38 Week 13 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Since then, the Bengals have gone on a four-game winning streak. While a trip to the NFL playoffs remains unlikely, a narrow path into the postseason exists for Cincinnati.

The Bengals don't have any room for error to make it into the playoffs. They also need help from several teams near the bottom of the AFC to claw their way into the No. 7 seed.

Just how slim are the Bengals' playoff chances? Here's what they need to make it into the postseason.

NFL WINNERS & LOSERS: Chiefs, Ravens have jolly Christmas as Steelers stumble

Bengals playoff chances

The Bengals have a 7% chance to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic's playoff prediction model. That ranks as the lowest chance among any NFL team in the playoff hunt even after their Week 17 win over the Denver Broncos.

Bengals playoff odds

The Athletic's model is slightly more pessimistic about the Bengals than DraftKings Sportsbook. DraftKings lists Cincinnati with +850 odds to make the postseason. That gives the Bengals an implied probability of 10.53% to qualify for the playoffs.

The Bengals entered the week with +1000 odds to make the postseason, per BetMGM Sportsbook. Their odds improved after their 30-24 overtime win over the Broncos on Saturday.

Even so, the path for the Bengals to make the postseason is narrow. They don't have much room for error as they look to overcome another slow start and get back into the playoffs after missing them last season.

What needs to happen for Bengals to make playoffs?

The Bengals need four things to happen to make the playoffs. They are as follows:

That represents the only path that the Bengals have into playoff contention.

Bengals remaining schedule

The Bengals had control of part of their own destiny thanks to a Week 17 matchup against the Broncos. They took care of business and prevented Denver from clinching the AFC's No. 7 seed with an overtime victory.

In Week 18, the Bengals will play a tough, divisional matchup against the Steelers. Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati 44-38 in their first meeting but enter the final-week matchup on a three-game losing streak.

Below is a look at Cincinnati's remaining schedule:

Broncos remaining schedule

More good news for Cincinnati: Denver has a tough finish to the 2024 NFL season. The Broncos have to face the 15-1 Chiefs in a Week 18 divisional rivalry matchup.

The only question is whether the Chiefs, who clinched the AFC's No. 1 seed on Christmas, will play their starters in the final week. If not, that could open a door for the Broncos to win at home and make it into the postseason.

That said, Andy Reid's squad may sense a chance to knock a divisional rival out of the postseason race after the Broncos' loss to the Bengals. If that's the case, the Chiefs could come ready to play and open the door for the Bengals.

Below is a look at Denver's schedule:

NFL PLAYOFFS: Chiefs clinch AFC's No. 1 seed, home-field advantage

Colts remaining schedule

Here's where things get problematic for the Bengals. The Colts have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. They are playing against the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars, who have a combined 5-25 record, over the final two weeks of the season.

The Colts are expected to be favored in both of those games. If they can win out and the Broncos stumble, they will be in the playoffs over the Bengals.

Below is a full look at Indianapolis' schedule:

Dolphins remaining schedule

Even if the Bengals get lucky and the Colts find a way to lose one of their final two games, Cincinnati would also need Miami to lose against either the Cleveland Browns or New York Jets. That schedule is tied for the fifth-easiest league-wide.

The good news for the Bengals is that both games are on the road. The Dolphins tend not to play well in cold weather, so seeing them drop one of these two games wouldn't be shocking, especially with Tua Tagovailoa likely out for Week 17.

Below is a full look at Miami's schedule:

Bengals potential playoff opponents

The Bengals can only be the No. 7 seed in the NFL playoffs for 2024. That means that there are only two possible opponents they could face. They are as follows:

The Bills have the inside track to the No. 2 seed in the postseason and can wrap it up with a Week 17 win over the Jets. With that in mind, Zac Taylor can start preaching about a potential trip to Buffalo as he tries to coach Cincinnati to an unlikely playoff berth.

SUPER BOWL 59: Six reasons why the Ravens have become a legit title contender

AFC playoff picture Week 17

AFC

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*
  2. Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winners)*
  3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
  4. Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winners)*
  5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)*
  6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card No. 2)*
  7. Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8).

NFC

  1. Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)*
  2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)*
  3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West leaders)
  4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
  5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2, wild card No. 1)*
  6. Green Bay Packers (11-4, wild card No. 2)
  7. Washington Commanders (10-5, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)

An asterisk (*) denotes teams that have clinched a playoff spot. Teams that have clinched division titles are noted accordingly.

Facebook Twitter Email