Broncos playoff picture: Scenarios, chances for Denver to make postseason
This story has been updated with new information.
The Broncos are riding their high horse right into the postseason. Or at least they hope to be.
Denver entered Week 17 positioned for a spot in the playoffs. They could quite lock it up because of a 30-24 overtime loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, but Denver remains in control of its destiny heading into the season's final week.
That isn't too bad for a team that wasn't considered a postseason contender heading into the year.
Here's a look at the Broncos playoff picture coming out of Week 17.
Broncos playoff chances
The Broncos have a 59% chance to make the playoffs after their Week 17 loss to the Bengals, according to The Athletic's playoff prediction model. That makes them the favorite to be the AFC's No. 7 seed.
Broncos playoff odds
The Broncos entered Week 17 with -900 to make the playoffs, according to BetMGM. That gives them a 90% implied probability of playing at least one additional game this season.
Those odds have likely decreased after their loss to the Bengals. That said, Denver is still in control of its own destiny and can clinch a playoff spot with a win or a tie against the Chiefs in Week 18. Kansas City isn't guaranteed to play its starters after clinching the AFC's No. 1 seed in Week 17.
What needs to happen for Broncos to make playoffs?
The Broncos have a simple path to the postseason. If they win (or tie) in Week 18 against the Chiefs, they will make it into the postseason. They can also get into the postseason with a combination of losses in Weeks 17 and 18.
Below are the exact scenarios for Denver to clinch the NFC's No. 7 seed:
- The Broncos win or tie against the Chiefs in Week 18;
- The Dolphins lose one of their final two games AND the Bengals lose to the Steelers in Week 18
Broncos remaining schedule
On paper, the Broncos have a difficult path to reaching the postseason in terms of schedule. They are playing the Chiefs in Week 18, and Kansas City boasts a 15-1 record.
However, Andy Reid may opt to rest his starters with the team having already locked up the AFC's top spot. That could allow the Broncos a chance to win and clinch the No. 7 seed in the conference.
Below is a full look at Denver's schedule:
- Week 18: vs Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
AFC West standings
The Broncos' only chance of reaching the playoffs is to win a wild card spot. At 15-1, the Chiefs wrapped up the AFC West weeks ago.
Below is a full look at the AFC West standings, with only the Raiders' Week 17 result left to be finalized:
NFL playoff picture Week 17
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, clinched AFC No. 1 seed, AFC West leaders)
- Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East leaders)
- Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)
- Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South leaders)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)
- Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card No. 2)
- Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8).
NFC
- Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)
- Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)
- Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West leaders)
- Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
- Minnesota Vikings (13-2, wild card No. 1)
- Green Bay Packers (11-4, wild card No. 2)
- Washington Commanders (10-5, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7), Seattle Seahawks (8-7)